Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Candidate Forum Straw Poll Results

Last night's straw poll put Randy Graf in the lead with Frank Antenori in second place. Frank purportedly was far behind Graf which suggests Mike Hellon and everyone else struggled to reach the voters. Patty Weiss apparently had a dismal showing, but who would expect anything different in a strongly conservative end of the district? She deserved credit for showing up and not backing down in front of a mostly Republican crowd. And insiders have leaked that she beat out Huffman.

The word on the street is that the gap between winners and losers was so great that in order to avoid embarrassing some of the candidates only winners would be announced. That has to be of concern to several incumbents and favored challengers.

Monday night's results could suggest that conservatives will show up at the polls in huge numbers leaving many incumbents shell-shocked and out of a job on election night. As far as the CD8 race is concerned, who among the Republicans can beat the winner of the Democratic primary could be moot. This poll suggests it will be a conservative in any case.

15 comments:

Kralmajales said...

I really think you are right. I think the conservatives are going to show up with "bells on" and the moderates are going to stay home. If I am right, it spells doom for the Huffman campaign...and it might spell doom for your candidates in the fall if nothing changes.

x4mr said...

Of course Huffman would do terribly on this poll. He wasn't there and should have been. He's a republican and this event was in his district.

Hellon's "it doesn't matter what you believe" line didn't go over well. I understood what he was trying to communicate, but not sure how many others did, and this was a room of faith loving folk.

If Huffman or Hellon win this thing, it will be with dynamics I do not understand. Graf is doing the campaigning that makes sense in my reality.

Huffman's hit piece was underwhelming. Instead of making me think less of Graf, I just thought, "Well, here's a weak hit piece."

Jeff said...

Huffman's hit piece might not connect. This is not exactly the worst year to be seen differing from the president.

Randy disagreed with the president over the immigration issue. Graf is in line with a lot of the Republican base on this issue. Randy was not attacking Bush over the war, as Steve's ad implies.

Is Huffman implying that he would be in lock step with Bush? Here boy, heel, sit. Good boy.

Framer said...

A few points:

1. This was a big deal, this forum was probably one of the best organized and best attended forums that the Republican candidates will have a chance to attend.

2. These weren't all hard core political junkies. There were many people at this forum having a look at the candidates for the first time. This forum easily represented a viable cross section of the Republican primary for at least Oro Vally.

3. This was Huffman's district, his party, and he found a reason not to go.

4. He was subsequently outpolled by Patty by mostly Republicans (X4mr excluded of course)in the district which should be his strength.

5. You think Steve might have had an hint that this was coming and was trying to use his absence as an excuse for his bad showing? Not knowing exactly who the crowd would be, he could only surmise this by his internal polling. Add this to his negative ads and I wonder what his polling is showing him? Probably something that looks a lot like what we have reported on this site.

6. How in the world did this train wreck happen?

Ben R said...

Speaking of train wrecks:

There is a campaign on the Dem side that reminds me of the Huffman campaign.

Raised alot of money, got some key endorsements, but no support from real voters, and now,........

Push polling!

Giffords has resorted to hiring a firm to call voters and lie about Patty Weiss. They lied about her stances on the issues, threatened that her health care plan would raise taxes on the middle class and even attacked her husband, saying he was in the pocket of big pharm.

This really bothers me. I guess when Giffords said the Dems don't attack other Dems, she was lying to us, just like she did in her ad.
And to talk about Patty's family is just disgraceful. Giffords' supporters have been talking about Rovian tactics, but this reminds me of South Carolina in 2000 when Rove and co. attacked McCain on a personal level.

The Giffords campaign is desperate, and its pathetic that they would stoop to such levels to try to win this election.

Maybe after they lose, Huffman and Giffords can give seminars on how to lose elections and behave disgracefully in the process.

Rex Scott said...

Ben is right. Push polling is a loathesome practice. No one should be subjected to it.

I am confident after making some inquiries that this is not a Giffords effort. Indeed, why would the campaign think this is even necessary? Other than a discredited story written by a cub reporter who used to be a College Republican, all the good news in the CD8 race is going OUR way. Going negative now would make NO SENSE.

Giffords supporters have also received phone calls from purported pollsters that have trashed our candidate. It is likely that the GOP is field testing negative attacks for the fall campaign aganst the two Dems most likely to be the nominee. Huffman has already used this tactic against Graf in their primary and, for all we know, this could be coming from his camp.

Gabby has been subject to more personal attacks on these blogs than anyone else. George Tuttle's blog (where things are supposed to be "relevant and civil") has been a bastion of Giffords-bashing. He also had one negative post against Weiss after Don Diamond contributed to her campaign.

If you look on the Weiss campaign website, there is a press release and a blog entry attacking Gabby. Weiss has also trashed Gabby on two radio shows, on Daily Kos and in the Tucson Weekly. I guess I can understand the strategic thinking behind these moves when all the support is going to Giffords, but if anyone has "gone negative," it's Patty!

If the Weiss camp can prove that this is coming from us, let them bring forth the evidence.

Ben R said...

I have no doubt that this push poll is happening. To blame it on Huffman is BS. That guy has enough problems with his own primary to be worried about this. To blame it on the RNC is also foolish. Why would they be pushing Giffords? If it was them they would bash Giffords and Weiss, and probably wait at least until after the primary. This isn't polling to gain info. This is widespread negative push polling.

And why would the Giffords campaign tell you? Rex and Kralmajales like to act like insiders. If they are push polling, I can assure you they aren't telling everyone. I can pretty much assure that it is kept to the innnermost circle of the campaign, and if you ask someone in that circle they aren't going to be stupid enough to own up to it.
Don't flatter yourselves Rex and Kralmajales, you don't know all that goes on behind closed doors, and they aren't going to tell you.

x4mr said...

Geeez Louise, ben r!

Did you post about this at Oprah's blog?

Well, Framer, I suppose this was only a matter of time.

Ben R said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Ben R said...

xm4r,

I don't read Oprah's blog so I don't really get that crack, chief. But go look at Blog for Arizona. The author of the blog as well as Francince Shacter got the push poll.

bob said...

Just because a push poll comes out in support of Giffords against her opponents doesn't necessarily mean in came from her campaign. But the odds of it being some RNC job or someone connected with the Republican party is really a very remote possibility. It just doesn't make any sense.

What COULD make sense, however, is that some third-party supporter of Giffords is doing it. Move-on.org, for example, funds some pretty nasty stuff in support of candidates it likes but usually keeps it to the general elections. Doesn't mean they wouldn't jump into a primary, though. But it could be any number of groups like them, so pointing fingers at this point is out of the question.

If the push poll was done by some third-party supporter, then Giffords either needs to distance herself from them or reign them in.

bob said...

Just because a push poll comes out in support of Giffords against her opponents doesn't necessarily mean in came from her campaign, though that IS the most likely culprit. But the odds of it being some RNC job or someone connected with the Republican party is really a very remote possibility. It just doesn't make any sense.

What COULD make sense, however, is that some third-party supporter of Giffords is doing it. Move-on.org, for example, funds some pretty nasty stuff in support of candidates it likes but usually keeps it to the general elections. Doesn't mean they wouldn't jump into a primary, though. But it could be any number of groups like them, so pointing fingers at this point is out of the question.

If the push poll was done by some third-party supporter, then Giffords either needs to distance herself from them or reign them in.

Anonymous said...

What kind of surgery did Huffman's kid have to make him miss 30% of his votes? Does anyone know?

FEDUP said...

Moveon.org is not supporting Giffords. Moveon openly endorses when they support a candidate and Giffords is not the candidate they would support in this race. This was 100% a Giffords effort, not a Republican effort.

x4mr said...

Patty is holding a press conference tomorrow at 3 PM to condemn the poll.

Giffords just released a statement condemning the poll.

http://www.azcongresswatch.com/?p=2162