Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Update on Election Activity

Pima County reports over 32,000 early ballots in. Polling stations report a light turnout so far. The weather report forecasts afternoon and evening showers. What do these have in common? They all favor candidates with a strong support base that will turn out and vote namely Randy Graf and Mike Hellon in the Republican camp.

The characteristics of the Democratic primary are considerably different than those of the Republican primary and will probably not be as influenced by these factors.

It is widely expected that early balloting will favor Randy Graf and Mike Hellon who held greater name recognition and an existing base early in the campaign. A light turnout will reveal primarily dedicated voters showing at the polls again favoring these candidates. Rain will chase away the less committed voters as well leaving most of the undecided voters home waiting for the general election.

We predict a 10-12 point spread between Graf and Huffman with Hellon picking up 10-13% of the vote.

16 comments:

Randall Holdridge said...

Over on Arizona Congress Watch, Stacy is reporting an inside tip that the RNCC will not be spending to support the winner of the CD-8 primary. Word is that they foresee a loss; no reason to throw good money after bad, I guess.

hooter said...

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride. And so would liberals like Randall.

Randall Holdridge said...

Gee. I'm only the messenger.

206isCancer.com said...

Randall or Mr. Negativity (whichever you prefer)- That would be kind of like spending money on Huffman I guess. "Throwing good money after bad..." I wouldn't be surprised at all if that were the case now though. Since, the NRCC has completely thrown out all of the rules of conventional wisdom on this one and forgotten about something called “common sense.” I don't think that Randy either needs or wants their support now. He seems to be doing just fine without those NRCC and Party establishment losers. His "kitchen cabinet" or whomever he's got behind him seems to be doing just fine for him. Maybe Graf doesn't want to mess up his strategy - running as a populist insurgent - by running with dirty money anyway at this point. But the NRCC will likely cave. And the funny thing here is that once Randy's won the Primary, he'll actually be playing with the much better hand of cards than the NRCC and the establishment. So, instead of Randy having to kiss their behinds, he can assume that it's time drop his own drawers and wait for the NRCC and the establishment to begin firmly planting kisses on his behind. They have no other choice, unless they would prefer 20-30 years with Gabrielle Giffords that is. What I'm saying is that with the NRCC and His Holiness "the Click", don't expect Randy to change his message or be kneeling down and kissing any rings anytime soon. They are the ones who will need him now. He has shown that he can survive without them. And what happens if the Club for Growth now gets involved on Randy’s behalf? We’ve got a whole new ballgame!
-----------------
On two quick side notes, first AZ8dude or dudette- where do you get the numbers for your prediction? They sound like nice numbers but seem to be completely made-up out of thin air.

And lastly, I hope that everybody received that special treat in their mailbox from the Arizona Democratic Party showing Huffman as "Chicken of the Year" on Immigration, which he called "Issue of the Year." It is amazing. They actually have the flashlight crusader dressed in a chicken suit. It is beyond priceless. From now on, I will only refer to Huffman as “Chicken of the Year.”

Bruce P. Murchison said...

Prediction:

Graf - 40%
Hellon - 25%
Huffman - 20%
Jenkins - 10%
Antenori - 5%

What little support Huffman had dropped due to his excessive negative campaigning. If he had kept it clean, perhaps it would have been closer. At least Hellon showed integrity. We'll see in about 3 hours.

206isCancer.com said...

I guess that since it's hip to guess the numbers tonight:

Randy Graf 53%
Chicken of the Year 32%
Mike Hellon 12%
Frank Antenori 3%
Mike Jenkins 2%

There you go, Randy Graf wins with a majority of the vote. Dang people love Randy!

Bruce P. Murchison said...

Other than the "Chicken" getting so much, I like your numbers better than mine. I actually hope Hellon does better than Huffman, just to rub it in.

Randall Holdridge said...

It will also be interesting to see whether there will greater total R or D vote in CD-8?

Does someone know how to determine how many independents are voting, and which primary they're choosing. And if that info were to available, how would one interpret it?

SonoranDesertRat said...

That info should be available, but you'd have to hunt to get it most likely, unless the Recorder makes a point of announcing the statisitc. After every election, the office publishes the Official Canvass, and that book is chock full of details. It's a long book, though...

Randall Holdridge said...

Hellon destroyed. I said I'd eat crow, so bring it on. I expected Republican pragmatism to kick in, and got it wrong.

Too much static in the race probably, for the voters to get things straight.

Randall Holdridge said...

Headline: Republican Party in Southern Arizona Commits Suicide

sirocco said...

I disagree Randall ... as someone else pointed out, conservative Republicans now have a ticket Kyl/Munsil/Graf which is going to appeal to their base - and they do have a bigger base than the Dems, in CD8 at least.

Dems can't take anything for granted, and will have to work hard to overcome Graf in Nov.

Bruce P. Murchison said...

My prediction had Graf and Antenori right, but way off on the others. I was surprised that Huffman received so many votes. I really thought Hellon would out poll him. Weird. Hopefully, we can come together now and unite against Giffords.

sirocco said...

Hey, bruce, I think you mean:

"Hopefully we can come together now and unite behind Giffords."

:P

The Committee said...

206isCancer.com,

The predictions were based on the fact that the top three candidates have held pretty steady in all the polling and shown their support base to be solid. Nothing suggested that those would change much. Graf was expected to pick up some of the undecideds and Hellon was expected to pick up a few votes from those suspicious of Graf, but repulsed by Huffman. Huffman would have the most influence over non-support base voters who know the candidates and issues less and are less reliable voters. These are mostly the undecideds-voters not as committed to researching candidates and who rely heavily on ads to make their decisions. Consequently, Huffman would be more successful with undecideds and pick up more votes from that group. Obviously, the degree of influence of each of these factors is somewhat subjective.

As it turned out, I was fairly accurate although I overerestimated by 4 points the spread between Graf and Huffman due to underestimating his ability to pick up undecided voters the final few days.

The Committee said...

Sorry, up too late tracking the elections.

Correction:
Graf and Hellon's support bases were solid. Huffman would rely heavily on undecideds due to the lack of a support base.