Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Reuters Poll: Graf Closes Gap to 8%

Here is the Reuters Poll for Arizona as reported on their web site:

ARIZONA 8 - Democratic former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords holds a 45-37 percent lead over Republican anti-immigration activist Randy Graf, who won a heated September 12 primary over a more moderate candidate backed by the national party. The polls of at least 500 likely voters in each district have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Again, not much detail on the internals.

23 comments:

The Committee said...

Oops! Sorry, Cancer Kid. I didn't realize you beat me to the punch.

Anonymous said...

Who is cancer kid?

sirocco said...

He's referring to 206isCancer, who posted in the thread below.

Just a couple comments ...

This is certainly the best news Graf's had in the campaign so far ... but it's not THAT great. It's been said before, but bears repeating -- the poll doesn't show any significant uptick for Graf. Instead, what has varied between all the polls is the level of support for Giffords or Undecided.

This seems to indicate when undecideds are pushed, they are overwhlemingly going to Giffords at this point. Graf MUST change this dynamic before Nov.

I hope another set of polling is done by someone this weekend -- I'd be interested in seeing the effect, if any, of Foley scandal.

Randall Holdridge said...

206isCancer = KMBlue

Is this actually a Zogby telephone poll, (9/25 - 10/2, MoE 4.5%), posted by Reuters?

redcardphreek said...

Can anyone confirm what Tedski is reporting about Graf blowing off the AZ Republic?

Any reasons behind this?

Anonymous said...

Reasons?

How about no one in CD 8 could give a flying **** about the Arizona Republic.

Maybe Graf would rather talk with voters in Southern Arizona than a few stuffy liberals in Phoenix.

redcardphreek said...

Blowing off the State's largest paper?

No wonder Graf is behind.

Was he talking with voters when the sit down happened?

206isCancer.com said...

Once again Randall Holdridge: what is KMBlue? Is it a good thing? If so, I accept you calling me it, if it's a bad thing, than I feel insulted. Coming from you though, whatever you feel about this KMBlue thing, I'm sure that the opposite is actually the truth. I still think that Randall Holdridge = Steve Huffman. If that’s not true, then you could be the official President of the Steve Huffman Fan Club and its only member. The Huffman Fan Club comes with neat benefits like being abandoned by everyone and no chance to ever run for any political office ever again.

----

…but back to the subject at hand…

These polling numbers which, like Arizona 8th mentioned, don’t come with any info on the polling sample, are still great news for Team Graf. Although, I trust Zogby as far as I can throw them, as a Grafite, I’ll take what I can get right now. In regard to Randy missing the Arizona Republic Editorial Board review, I agree with anonymous, who cares… Let’s see: Spend a day driving up to Phoenix so a bunch of self-righteous, self-important liberal newspaper men who don’t even have circulation anywhere in District 8 or spend the day campaigning in the District. The chance that the Republic would endorse Randy is as good as the New York Times, Hillary Clinton, or Vicente Fox endorsing Randy Graf. He doesn’t want or need any of their endorsements. And it’s insulting to have to answer their self-righteous questions in the first place. Well, maybe there’s a way to find a Hillary endorsement as a positive thing. I’m sure that Randy will be there, as he has, when the LOCAL papers need him or want to interview with him. Randy has been very, very open with reporters, and all impressions are that this will continue throughout the campaign and during his time in Congress. Just ask the Blake Morlock of the Tucson Citizen, Daniel Scarpinato of the Arizona Daily Star, and Jim Nintzel of the Tucson Weekly if Randy has been open with them. Plus, if it’s so important to talk to Randy, haven’t the people at the Republic ever heard of a telephone!

----

…but still the poll and the Arizona Republic people feeling potentially butt-hurt over Randy not wasting gas money to come and get talked at by them, pale in comparison to the news that BURT BACHARACH IS COMING TO DO A FUNDRAISER FOR GABRIELLE GIFFORDS! I mean how many 13 and 14 year-old girls do you think will faint when they here that THE Burt Bacharach will be in town for Gabby? This is just amazing! Plus, when you get the science community from the U of A involved, they must be excited too. I mean, the last remnants of the Cretaceous Period of the Earth is coming to town, this could be the Science Event of the Century for Tucson.

sirocco said...

206,

The key phrase of your entire post above is:

"Although, I trust Zogby as far as I can throw them, as a Grafite, I’ll take what I can get right now."

The point being, there really hasn't been much good news for Graf, so this gets blown up.

It's good news for Graf certainly -- "hey, one of four recent polls has me almost within reasonably striking range of Giffords" -- but it's not great news. Until Graf can show significant upping of his numbers, he's in trouble.

John said...

redcard

“The State’s largest paper?” The operative word here is paper. Their reporting is often slanted or incorrect at best.

It wouldn’t matter if it was the NY Times, USA Today, or Wall Street Journal. Randy is not running for a statewide race or nationwide race. He is running for CD 8. As such a tiny little neighborhood paper that is actually read by some locals in Southern Arizona means more than the Arizona Republic. Good for him for not wasting his time with a bunch of pompous journalists who can’t vote in his race.

sirocco,

Your side had no problem sighting absurd poll numbers with Gabby up by 18. Darn right we are going to be all over survey results in the single digits. I believe the final results will be a lot closer to the Zogby number that to numbers that Gabby first released.

Randall Holdridge said...

For what it's worth as a sampling (I just asked), the manager of the Quik Mart where I buy my papers, south of downtown Tucson, in a Spanish-speaking area near the line between CD-7 and CD-8, sells more copies each day of the "Arizona Republic" than it does of either "Tucson Citizen" or "USA Today". The "Republic" sells only slightly less well than the "Arizona Daily Star", except on Sunday, when the "Star" has giant sales.

Incidentally, as a matter of policy, Quik Mart, (at least mine), stopped distributing the "Tucson Weekly" several years ago, while still passing out other free publications

206isCancer = KMBlue

Randall Holdridge = Randall Holdridge

Randall Holdridge said...

KMBlue (aka, 206isCancer):

I've been trying to figure out exactly what you're trying to establish by your attack on the appearance of Burt Bachrach at a private fund-raiser on behalf of Gabrielle Giffords. This is sort of like your previous comments on Ms. Giffords's clothing, her parents, or the decor of her home.

Let's reason this through. Burt Bachrach, one of the most successful popular song-writers of the 20th century, has engaged to play piano and sing some tunes at a fund-raiser for candidate Giffords, at a private home in a quiet residential neighborhood, for invited guests, presumably of a certain age and with a history of generosity.

Okay, Bachrach may not be to the taste of 13 and 14 year-old girls. Exactly why, KMBlue (aka 216isCancer) are you obsessed with the pre-teen girl demographic anyway? Does it relate to your earlier posts fixated on Giffords as a teen?

Or do you suppose that teen-aged admirers of glam-rock/punk-rock/heavy-metal/hip-hop/etc/etc/bands are the people that campaign fund-raising events at private homes in residential neighborhoods are intended to appeal to?

Perhaps you mean to give advance notice of the Graf October surprise -- a giant heavy metal concert for his check-writing teeny-bopper supporters, headlined by that perpetual swinger Amy Grant, with Black Sabbath and White Snake joining together on back-up, Marilyn Manson and Ozzy Osborne as MCs.

That's the thing about Randy Graf that has struck me the most; he is just so down with what's going on; so rad; way cool.

x4mr said...

Randall,

Scratching my head a little.

206, meet KMBlue.

Randall Holdridge said...

x4mr,

All I'm saying is that KMBlue and 206isCancer are the same poster. You of all people, such a faithful monitor of these blogs and a former teacher of writing, surely haven't missed this?

The style is the man (woman); and I say it again, loud and proud:

206isCancer = KMBlue

I can prove it by analysis of diction, sentence structure, paragraph organization, polemical and logical construction, psychological and emotional traits, etc. I've been blind tested on several occasions on my ability to distinguish among individual student writers, and I've reviewed scores of professional writers, and made my living as an editor.

I'm making this identification public not because it's vital, but so that KMBlue's fans can follow the brilliant and sophisticated analysis of their idol, mentor, and acknowledged leader.

x4mr said...

I was actually scratching my head about the whole heavy metal thing.

Regarding 206/KMB, hmmm.

Sun Spot said...

Randall,

I can prove by analysis that you are a long-winded boor.

Randall Holdridge said...

sun spot --

Boor or bore? Which had you in mind?

Let's see that analysis!

Randall Holdridge said...

x4mr,

What do you say to Burt Bachrach fronting for the New York Dolls, Morrissey, Bono, Springsteen, the Indigo Girls, and Christina Aguilera?

Madonna at the punch bowl with Cher, ladling the cups full.

Bowie at the mike as MC?

Willie Nelson provides refreshments. Say, speaking of Willie, you know he got busted with a bagful of pot in his tour bus. Asked to comment, he said, "Thank goodness it was grass. If it was spinach, I'd be dead by now."

sun spot said...

Randall,

Boor. It is a prima facie case.

Randall Holdridge said...

sun spot,

I disagree with you, ergo, I'm boorish.

Actually, I feared you might try to make a case for "bore".

I know that facts and logic are often seen as boring by slavish true believers. And I admit that I do insist on throwing in facts and logic.

But I try to make some jokes, too, and lighten the tone of discourse. This is probably your prima facie case for "boor".

Well, what's an ignorant country boy supposed to come up with in the face of well-argued, witty, and incisive sophistication like yours.

I'll try to do better. Bless you for your concern.

sun spot said...

“facts and logic” More like pontification and double talk.

Randall Holdridge said...

sun spot,

Sticks and stones will break my bones, etc.


Should we compare fathers' chest hair, or talk about our mothers' combat boots, etc.

Do you really think that people don't see through your drivel?

You've got nothing. Nothing at all.

Liza said...

Well, I know everyone has moved on, but this thread is great. Really funny, Randall, but why waste it on a red blog?