tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28821987.post115923060535765950..comments2023-12-30T21:07:49.487-07:00Comments on Arizona 8th: Poll MagicUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28821987.post-1159330242012606522006-09-26T21:10:00.000-07:002006-09-26T21:10:00.000-07:00sirocco,I stipulate to your version of the story, ...sirocco,<BR/><BR/>I stipulate to your version of the story, mostly because I do not know otherwise. But Garry’s ad says she was a successful businesswoman.<BR/><BR/>Taking over already running business and closing down non-performing stores is not my definition of a successful businesswoman. She did not start or build up a business but cut one down in preparation to be sold. Her ad gives a false impression. She sounds like a real Gordon Gekko.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28821987.post-1159285844226670782006-09-26T08:50:00.000-07:002006-09-26T08:50:00.000-07:00Still does not sound like a glowing success story ...Still does not sound like a glowing success story to me. She fixed it up enough to sell, is that what you are saying? Her ads to not give that impression.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28821987.post-1159282539532253602006-09-26T07:55:00.000-07:002006-09-26T07:55:00.000-07:00Randall,Did it ever occur to you that the politica...Randall,<BR/><BR/>Did it ever occur to you that the political orientation of an area can change, especially with a large influx of population? Again you site all sorts of incongruous facts but your overall theme wanders. Yes, Jim McNulty briefly represented the district for two years until Kolbe beat him. Back in 1984 Kolbe did not run as a soft on the border, gay congressman. I remember because I was living in Tucson at the time and followed the campaign closely.<BR/><BR/>Can the area really be that conservative if Al Melvin just got elected? As to the right to life and firearms issues maybe you should check to voting records of Tim Bee, Jonathan Paton, Marian McClure, and Jennifer Burns. Even Toni Hellon was a stalwart on the right to keep and bear arms.<BR/><BR/>Yes, Randy used to be a golf pro. Is there a point to that message? Ronald Reagan used to be a B movie actor. From what I understand Gabby ran her family business into the ground and then sold it off to a large corporation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28821987.post-1159247962553503442006-09-25T22:19:00.000-07:002006-09-25T22:19:00.000-07:00It was a mistake for Gabby to release her numbers ...It was a mistake for Gabby to release her numbers because her numbers will never reach 19% again. That will give the impression that she is slipping.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28821987.post-1159246529490177362006-09-25T21:55:00.000-07:002006-09-25T21:55:00.000-07:00Randall,What?!!!You really need to take a break fr...Randall,<BR/><BR/>What?!!!<BR/><BR/>You really need to take a break from politics for a while. You're rattling off stuff only you understand now.<BR/><BR/>You are, of course always welcome, but people are just going to start ignoring you if you keep this up.<BR/><BR/>Don't be the guy in the corner of the room talking to yourself. You're better than that.Framerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09867927854445059711noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28821987.post-1159242983361800952006-09-25T20:56:00.000-07:002006-09-25T20:56:00.000-07:00Sirocco,I never claimed that Graf was in the lead ...Sirocco,<BR/><BR/>I never claimed that Graf was in the lead at this point, nor close to it. I just can't believe that the internals of the first Star poll were laid out and they "forgot" to do this with the second poll. The only reason you do not do this is because they are flawed and the pollster knows it. The Star does not have the time or funding, however, for a redo.<BR/><BR/>The oversampling of women was demonstrable. Randy Graf came within 130 votes of beating the entire Democratic side with Primary votes in Pinal County (I would give Giffords a wash or, at best, a slight lead in the other two outlying counties, but not enough to make up for Pinal.) I will need more than this poll to show that Gabby is ahead.<BR/><BR/>You do have to understand that I have a huge skeptacism of polls since long before this race. Took a class once from a very good pollster in college that led me to this, especially polls done by local publications. I want to see at least three REAL polls (the Star is marginablly acceptable, the Gabby poll is not) before I start drinking from their wisdom.<BR/><BR/>If the race is around 10% (which we are not all that far apart on) then it is certainly far from over at this point Especially as Gabby has agreed to six debates. I'm not going to say this is a mistake, because it is the right thing to do for the electorate. It does, however, expose her to a great deal more risk, as many will be expecting Graf to kill at least three live puppies during the first five minutes and will be pleasantly suprised when he turns out to be very humble and articulate.<BR/><BR/>I do tip my hat to Giffords for agreeing to six debates. That was classy.<BR/><BR/>Just as you notice that Graf is hoovering aroung his previous primary numbers, I am noticing that Giffords is settling close to the Kerry numbers of two years ago. Do you think that Graf can convince any of those Republican undecideds that Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House would be a bad thing?<BR/><BR/>At least it will give us something to keep blogging about until Basketball season.Framerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09867927854445059711noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28821987.post-1159239172069079482006-09-25T19:52:00.000-07:002006-09-25T19:52:00.000-07:00Sirocco,Damn you for making me do math!If we assum...Sirocco,<BR/><BR/>Damn you for making me do math!<BR/><BR/>If we assume a 50-50 split in men vs. women polling, based on the percentages given, men vs. women the total poll results would be:<BR/><BR/>47.6 Giffords<BR/>36.5 Graf<BR/><BR/>This cuts the percentage by 1.5 points. I would argue further that more men will vote than women in the actual election, so the results are probably closer to just below 10% for Giffords if all the other ducks are in a row, which they probably aren't.<BR/><BR/>Notice there is far more growth room in male undecideds as well. <BR/><BR/>Additionally, If Graf truly is within 0-5 points with Gabby on Health Care and the Iraq War, then this has to be a tremendous boost. All he would have to do is clarify his his views on illegal immigration which are not near as extreme as you or anyone have been led to believe and further clarify Gabby's record on the issue which is pretty close to non-existant.<BR/><BR/>I still do not believe that Gabby is leading in the outlying counties. It would take more than this flawed poll to convince me of that. And you must admit that the absence of a breakdown is pretty glaring.<BR/><BR/>I do believe that the errors were probably due to sloppiness and not partisanship or a desire to deceive. The Giffords poll on the other hand. . .Framerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09867927854445059711noreply@blogger.com