tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28821987.post7415236928990987473..comments2023-12-30T21:07:49.487-07:00Comments on Arizona 8th: New Poll; Presidential Race MusingsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28821987.post-65396005914572703972007-06-18T21:27:00.000-07:002007-06-18T21:27:00.000-07:00Roger,A little later, I am going to follow up AZAc...Roger,<BR/><BR/>A little later, I am going to follow up AZAce with a state by state chronological primer of where we are at. I was waiting on an announcement from Michigan to see if they were going to move into January, but I may just move on without them.Framerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09867927854445059711noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28821987.post-50829658424940730022007-06-18T14:40:00.000-07:002007-06-18T14:40:00.000-07:00Great post, Azace.The national polls, as you menti...Great post, Azace.<BR/><BR/>The national polls, as you mention, have serious flaws, but there is a LOT there for Clinton and Guiliani to love for sure. Plus, state polls show her doing pretty well in NH, but not as well in Iowa. <BR/><BR/>Clinton is likely to be very very strong as long as Obama and Edwards are both in the race. There can't be more than one alternative candidate to the estabilishment Clinton. They spit votes and so far the vote splitting favors Clinton.<BR/><BR/>What scrares the begesus out of Clinton is Edwards or Obama doing better than expected in Iowa...or one of them winning (Edwards???). A loss in that state is a serious achilles heel for the jaugernaut that is the Clinton campaign. People aren't sure she can win in the fall...so "someone to believe in" that swats her in Iowa...is one to watch. It is the only scenario I can see that can get someone like an Edwards iin the winner's circle. It has worked so many times...<BR/><BR/>On the Republican side...look at the polls in Iowa for Romney. Isn't he winning? If so...look out.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28821987.post-57391786564674415012007-06-18T14:06:00.000-07:002007-06-18T14:06:00.000-07:00You're right, it is somewhat based on the one-year...You're right, it is somewhat based on the one-year point prior to the election. He announced this late last month. Here's <A HREF="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=3198539" REL="nofollow">the link</A>.AZAcehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04702924818232398832noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28821987.post-72704198487057020272007-06-18T12:42:00.000-07:002007-06-18T12:42:00.000-07:00Thanks for mentioning the poll results - I hadn't ...Thanks for mentioning the poll results - I hadn't seen them. Good thoughts too. <BR/><BR/>I think you underestimate Obama a bit, but I agree he could very well begin losing some traction at the end of the summer. I don't see Gore running this year, and Jeb's brother of course has ruined any thoughts Jeb might have had about making a run. He'll see if a Dem wins this year, and if so run in four years.<BR/><BR/>Where are you getting the info Newt will declare on Nov. 6? I've seen speculation he will declare sometime this fall, but that's a pretty specific date, so I assume it comes from somewhere. Is it just the one-year point before next year's elections?Siroccohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01690606094337353266noreply@blogger.com