Although Hillary Clinton has expanded her lead over Barack Obama in some polls, Obama is far from finished. In fact, as he did last quarter, this quarter Obama is expected to out-raise Clinton raising more contributions from smaller donors and ending with more cash-on-hand for the upcoming primaries. Not only that, but Lake Research Partners, a Democratic polling group, says Obama is the stronger candidate over Clinton against Rudy Giuliani. Their research also suggests a Clinton candidacy would drag down some Democratic congressional candidates—a double hit should she win the nomination.
Will all this amount to a new Obama surge? It has yet to be seen where Obama ends up in fundraising and how effective is his use of all that extra cash. Now that the polls suggest the Clinton shell is showing cracks, an Obama surge in the next quarter could show some interesting results.
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I started to make a reply to this ... and then though "Heck, this would make a good blog entry for me". So I'll post on my blog and link to here.
The mark of a true capitalist.
Nah ... it's not like my blog gets 1/100th of the readership here, or RRR, or x4mr ... but it was a something I was kind of planning to post about this morning anyway ...
Plus I have no ads there, I can make no money. :)
ACE,
Good post. To me, it would a major deal if Obama outraises Hillary again. Its more than him hanging around, it is that she has been pulling away as of late...both in the polls and in debates and appearances. Her fundraising should be up and Obama's down. If it isn't, its a major surprise. If Obama outraises here...again...then THAT will be BIG news. What is says is that despite national polls, he has a wealth of very loyal people ready to vote for him in the early primaries. Turnout matters most.
roger,
That's what I was thinking when I read this. Turnout will transcend polls with Obama running. African Americans know how to mobilize people when they have a good reason to do so. Look at what they did for that kid in Jena, LA.
What we really need to be concerned about is election fraud...again.
Liza,
Great points.
One big big problem with the African-American vote is going to be Iowa and NH, where African-American voters don't represent a huge amount of the population. He needs some real activist/union/move-on support in these states, which his fundraising seems to suggest. However, South Carolina, the first southern primary is not far after NH and THERE African-Americans make up a very large proportion of the primary vote.
The other issue here is this. I think Hillary has a solid base of voters that support her and will in primaries. The "other than Hillary" vote is split among Edwards and Obama for now. When you add that split together, it beats her I think...in both states. She desperately needs Obama and Edwards in the race as long as possible. If one leaves early, then the one left could really challenge her. If they bot stay around for awhile, she will win state after state and the momentum that goes along with it.
An interesting little problem for "other than Hillary" supporters.
Just a follow up on what I was saying. Look at the latest numbers in Iowa. I thinke it is 26% Obama, 24% Hillary, 22% Edwards and a massive 7% margin of error which means they are all tied. If my theory is right, much of either the Edwards or Obama supporters would be likely to move to the other and not Hillary. That is a lot of primary voters.
Obama needs Edwards out fast...or vice versa. Hillary needs them both in as long as possible.
Roger,
One thing we can count on is that the 2008 round of Democratic primaries will be very different from 2004. I think you're right about the Hillary/Obama/Edwards triangle. It kind of makes me wish that Edwards would drop out even though I kind of like him.
If Obama gets the nomination this will be the most exciting presidential election since John F. Kennedy won in 1960. I would really like to see this nation get energized again, and believe that a presidential election can make a difference. That won't happen if Hillary is the candidate.
I kept waiting for Sirocco to post a link to his analysis, but it's apparent that he is much too modest. So for those who have been anxiously anticipating, here's the link:
http://abunchofhotair.blogspot.com/.
Heh. Thanks Ace ... yeah, I am always torn on posting links to my own blog. I figure if anyone is really interested, they can find it.
The link to my post specifically referring to this post by AzAce is:
http://abunchofhotair.blogspot.com/2007/09/polling-errors.html
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