McCain looks to pick up Arizona, according to the polls, but Romney has a strong following and won't let McCain walk away with it without a fight. Furthermore, much of the recent polling has taken on the accuracy of weather forecasting. Obviously, neither candidate sees Arizona as a critical state as far as the number of available delegates, but McCain can't afford to lose face in his home state. So the Senator is working hard to get party leaders to break their neutrality pledges and line up behind him hoping Republican voters will follow suit. So far, his strategy appears to be paying off to a limited degree. But all is not gold in Arizona.
Currently, Republicans and independents represent a strange mix when it comes to McCain. Many independents see McCain as the anti-partisan maverick needed to shake things up and get something done in Washington while some are disgruntled Republicans who see McCain as an opportunist untrue to many GOP principles. Republicans, likewise, are fairly conflicted. Some boo loudly at state conventions when McCain's name is read while others demand loyalty to the long-term Arizona senator who spent time in a POW camp during his military service.
While McCain will pick up many independents and loyal party Republicans, his challenge is to persuade less-convinced Republican activists and party leaders that they should ignore his organized funding boycott of the state party and not reciprocate by boycotting his run for the nomination. Loud criticism of his support for amnesty the past couple of years has led McCain to turn up his nose and walk the other way whenever he's had an opportunity to help the party encouraging his largest supporters to do likewise. Now he needs state party leaders and GOP voters to solidify a victory in the state. With no sign of an olive branch forthcoming, it looks like McCain is intent on digging in and holding his position. How much of an effect this will have on his success in the state remains to be seen. He may win the state, as expected, but even a narrow win would communicate weak support out of his home state—something that could hurt him in the long run if the contest drags on past Super Tuesday.
Confucius say he who poke stick in eye of friend, lose friend, but he who extend arm, lose enemy.
If ever there was a time for Senator McCain to lay down the stick, this would be it. It can only help him on Super Tuesday.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Hershberger Challenges Melvin for Senate
Representative Hershberger, finishing his last session as a term-limited Representative, has forced a Republican primary in LD26 by challenging returning candidate Al Melvin for state Senate.
In 2006, Melvin soundly upset Senator Toni Hellon in the primary only to lose by a few hundred votes to Democrat Charlene Pesquiera in the general election. After the election, Al Melvin immediately declared himself a candidate for 2008 and has been the sole Republican declared until now.
Pete Hershberger, bound by the resign-to-run law, kept silent about his desire to fight for a seat in the Senate. Now he's looking to bump Melvin out of the race so he can extend his time in the legislature, an action long anticipated by many.
This will prove to be the most clearly divided race in Southern Arizona with Pete, known to campaign with Democrats, in one corner, and Al, the staunch party conservative, in the other.
This race will be anything but boring.
In 2006, Melvin soundly upset Senator Toni Hellon in the primary only to lose by a few hundred votes to Democrat Charlene Pesquiera in the general election. After the election, Al Melvin immediately declared himself a candidate for 2008 and has been the sole Republican declared until now.
Pete Hershberger, bound by the resign-to-run law, kept silent about his desire to fight for a seat in the Senate. Now he's looking to bump Melvin out of the race so he can extend his time in the legislature, an action long anticipated by many.
This will prove to be the most clearly divided race in Southern Arizona with Pete, known to campaign with Democrats, in one corner, and Al, the staunch party conservative, in the other.
This race will be anything but boring.
Slicing and Dicing Florida
Here is some interesting data from the Florida primary.
Mitt lost Florida in two counties where McCain trounced him: Broward and Miami-Dade. Do these counties ring a bell?
In Broward, McCain had 40,658, Romney had 23,921, and Giuliani 18,662 (third place).
In Miami-Dade, McCain had a whopping 75,516, Romney had 23,936, and Giuliani 40,251 (a strong second place).
It appears that instead of Giuliani supporters taking votes from McCain, they ended up taking them from Romney. It will be interesting to see how this plays out on Feb. 5.
Mitt lost Florida in two counties where McCain trounced him: Broward and Miami-Dade. Do these counties ring a bell?
In Broward, McCain had 40,658, Romney had 23,921, and Giuliani 18,662 (third place).
In Miami-Dade, McCain had a whopping 75,516, Romney had 23,936, and Giuliani 40,251 (a strong second place).
It appears that instead of Giuliani supporters taking votes from McCain, they ended up taking them from Romney. It will be interesting to see how this plays out on Feb. 5.
Have you been listening to Jon Justice at 104.1 FM / The Truth this week? Listen in from 6am to 9am, Monday through Friday. He has come up with a great idea!
WHAT IFAMERICA TOOK THE TAX REBATE STIMULUS MONEY AND USED IT TO SECURE THE U.S. MEXICO
"This started on Jan 24th 2008 while I was printing the story of President Bush and Congress agreeing on a stimulus package. Being married with 2 boys I could certainly use the $1800.00 that I will be getting this summer. But then I thought "what if"? What if enough people decided to pledge some if not all their Tax Rebate money to secure the US Mexico Border? What if we sent a message back to our government that said "Since you failed to secure our border, we will do it for you". It would take a one time cost of roughly 3 billion dollars to put the entire fence up. Our government is going to hand the tax payers 150 Billion! A fraction of that could save us billions in Illegal Immigration costs for years to come."
For more information, cut and paste this link to your web browser:
http://www.1041thetruth.com/whatif/tabid/4702/default.aspx
I like thinking like this.
WHAT IF
"This started on Jan 24th 2008 while I was printing the story of President Bush and Congress agreeing on a stimulus package. Being married with 2 boys I could certainly use the $1800.00 that I will be getting this summer. But then I thought "what if"? What if enough people decided to pledge some if not all their Tax Rebate money to secure the US Mexico Border? What if we sent a message back to our government that said "Since you failed to secure our border, we will do it for you". It would take a one time cost of roughly 3 billion dollars to put the entire fence up. Our government is going to hand the tax payers 150 Billion! A fraction of that could save us billions in Illegal Immigration costs for years to come."
For more information, cut and paste this link to your web browser:
http://www.1041thetruth.com/whatif/tabid/4702/default.aspx
I like thinking like this.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Sharon Bronson in the Crosshairs
Sonoran Alliance reported that Sharon Bronson might be getting a challenger in the Democrat primary. It looks like Sharon is being fired upon from all sides. On the Republican side, Barney Brenner is rumored to be exploring the possibility of taking out Bronson as well.
The Race Is On!
In Florida, as they come out of the gate it's Romney and McCain running neck and neck at 33.6%. Giuliani, barely out of the chute holds 14.8%. Huckabee is holding on to fourth place by half a length at 13.1%.
Looks like a nail biter to me!
Looks like a nail biter to me!
Monday, January 28, 2008
Barack and Janet?
It's been long rumored that Governor Janet has been eyeing Senator John's senate seat, but now her gaze has shifted. Insiders in the state capitol say Napolitano's heavy push for all-day kindergarten to prepare kids for school, and now her push for expansive early childhood education programs to prepare kids for all-day kindergarten to prepare kids for school has a purpose beyond pushing the state debt to $2 billion. Janet wants to look good to Barack Obama who she hopes will pick her as a running mate provided he takes all the marbles for the Democrats. Now, the Obama endorsement makes a bit more sense.
Of course, why would Obama pick a governor from an obscure western state with few electoral votes when he could look almost anywhere else and get a better return for his pick? No question, it's a long shot.
So don't start looking for those Obama-Napolitano in '08 bumper stickers, yet. But wouldn't it be interesting to see McCain and Napolitano duking it out on opposite teams?
Of course, why would Obama pick a governor from an obscure western state with few electoral votes when he could look almost anywhere else and get a better return for his pick? No question, it's a long shot.
So don't start looking for those Obama-Napolitano in '08 bumper stickers, yet. But wouldn't it be interesting to see McCain and Napolitano duking it out on opposite teams?
Sunday, January 27, 2008
AZ Star moves Portillo to Jazz Blog
Back on January 17th Greg at Espresso Pundit reported that Ernesto Portillo Jr. had lost his column in the Arizona Daily Star. In Sunday’s Star Debbie Kornmiller confirms Greg’s report and elaborates:
No mention yet if Portillo will continue to appear on the Friday edition of Arizona Illustrated.
Rather than write three opinion columns a week, Portillo will write a news column on Sundays with a focus on Tucson's culture and people. He also will start an Internet blog on Latin jazz. The blog will allow Portillo, who hosts a weekly radio show on KXCI-FM, to share his expertise and passion on the topic with readers. In addition to that, Portillo will write news stories about Tucson's ethnic communities. And he will continue his public duties as a speaker and master of ceremonies at public events.
No mention yet if Portillo will continue to appear on the Friday edition of Arizona Illustrated.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
The Democrat Caste System for Delegates
Here's how the Democrats select delegates:
"Delegates and Alternates must be equally divided between men and women.
The delegate selection process is open to all Democrats who are registered voters. The SC Democratic Party encourages participation by members of groups that are underrepresented in party affairs, including African Americans, Hispanics, ethnics, youth, those over 65, gay men and lesbians, persons with physical disabilities, and persons of low and moderate income.
Our goal is to elect a delegation that is at least 50% African American, as well as at least 3 GLBT delegates and 5 who are under 30. The election of At-Large delegates may be used to reach this goal."
The party of equal opportunity selects by race, sexual practice and age. Why not simply select the best people?
"Delegates and Alternates must be equally divided between men and women.
The delegate selection process is open to all Democrats who are registered voters. The SC Democratic Party encourages participation by members of groups that are underrepresented in party affairs, including African Americans, Hispanics, ethnics, youth, those over 65, gay men and lesbians, persons with physical disabilities, and persons of low and moderate income.
Our goal is to elect a delegation that is at least 50% African American, as well as at least 3 GLBT delegates and 5 who are under 30. The election of At-Large delegates may be used to reach this goal."
The party of equal opportunity selects by race, sexual practice and age. Why not simply select the best people?
Friday, January 25, 2008
Pesquiera Fined for Campaign Violation
Charlene Pesquiera, State Senator from LD26, was hit with a $1000 fine for failing to report campaign donations as a non-Clean Elections candidate in 2006. As the candidate who had never bothered to register to vote, Charlene was coaxed into running with no experience but still managed to win by a few hundred votes. Being new to the process, she may not have understood that withholding the information for a month prevents the opponent from receiving Clean Elections matching funds in a timely manner thereby negating the equalizing intent of the law. In this case, however, candidate Al Melvin did not appear to be impacted as he had already received his maximum match for the campaign.
Several inside sources have repeated Charlene's statements that she had no intention of running for re-election this year, although the Democrat party has indicated otherwise. There are no indications at this point that this situation will have an effect on her decision.
Several inside sources have repeated Charlene's statements that she had no intention of running for re-election this year, although the Democrat party has indicated otherwise. There are no indications at this point that this situation will have an effect on her decision.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Nintzel to AZ Dems - Play a new tune
Tucson Weekly columnist Jim Nintzel is the last person you would describe as a member of the vast right wing conspiracy but even he has had enough of the Democrats harping on Senator Tim Bee and resign to run. In his recent weekly column Nintzel issues the following reminder:
The Dems should really work up a new angle, by the way; it's a slippery slope to keep harping on the idea that a candidate can't handle campaigning and serving in office at the same time. Is Attorney General Terry Goddard supposed to resign in 2010 if he decides to run for governor? Is Gov. Janet Napolitano supposed to resign if she runs for the U.S. Senate in the last year of her term?
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Earmark Breakthough...Maybe
Wow! It seems that some elected officials are stepping up to the plate and eschewing earmarks. Yet, while some are taking the plunge, President Bush's stance has stiffened on calls by conservatives to use his Executive Order privilege to take the teeth out of any earmark that makes it past his desk. Clearly, one doesn't need the other to break the earmark curse, but if congress and the Prez could agree on anything, solving the pork problem would be a great place to start.
Who's Next?
Two more have dropped out of the GOP presidential race meaning those followers will have to go somewhere. Where do they go and what does it mean for those contenders still duking it out? Back in December, I raised this issue. But now that we're further into the fun, I'll raise it again.
As I've mentioned before, Duncan Hunter, as a candidate, was probably the conservative's conservative, but never seemed to gain traction with anyone (although he did pick up a delegate in Wyoming). His followers are certainly conservatives. Although, the numbers are few, they will most likely end up with Romney. They can't go to Guiliani or McCain. They would most likely have gone to Thompson before he dropped, but now have to choose between Huckabee, who is fast losing ground, and Romney, who is still in the lead. Most, albeit few, will end up with Romney. A few may join Ron Paul.
I've also before stated that although Fred Thompson, longtime friend of McCain, will probably endorse McCain, which will give him some needed support, many Thompson supporters saw Fred as an alternative to Huckabee who was too weak on non-social issues. Now many of those supporters are faced with the same choice as Hunter's supporters. Most of those who don't go to McCain will go to Romney. Huckabee will take the biggest hit on this shift.
Huckabee needs a strong showing in Florida to hang on, but isn't likely to get it. His organization is weak in Florida, and he doesn't seem to be building the excitement he had in Iowa which is certainly a different demographic. Giuliani, who bailed on state after state in order to put what he had left into a big win in Florida, is spent, and he will probably end well behind the pack. The big question still remains what happens to the Huckabeee and/or Giuliani supporters when one or both drop out? I believe they will both split to the remaining frontrunners with Romney ending up with
As in Nevada and Michigan, polling has been underreporting Romney supporters in Florida...until recently. It looks increasingly like Florida will go to Romney. There has been speculation about a possible endorsement from Jeb Bush to one of the candidates. If Jeb endorses anyone, it will be Romney with whom he has had a positive relationship for some time. If that happens, Romney nails it. If not, Romney is on his own with fairly strong momentum.
McCain needs to win this race, or hold his own in a tight matchup in order to stay in the game. A win would be the huge boost that he needs. A big loss would be tough to overcome on Super Tuesday. Romney, likewise, is in a similar situation, but better positioned, it appears.
Unless there are some big surprises next Tuesday, it looks like it will be Romney and McCain as the top picks going into February 5th.
As I've mentioned before, Duncan Hunter, as a candidate, was probably the conservative's conservative, but never seemed to gain traction with anyone (although he did pick up a delegate in Wyoming). His followers are certainly conservatives. Although, the numbers are few, they will most likely end up with Romney. They can't go to Guiliani or McCain. They would most likely have gone to Thompson before he dropped, but now have to choose between Huckabee, who is fast losing ground, and Romney, who is still in the lead. Most, albeit few, will end up with Romney. A few may join Ron Paul.
I've also before stated that although Fred Thompson, longtime friend of McCain, will probably endorse McCain, which will give him some needed support, many Thompson supporters saw Fred as an alternative to Huckabee who was too weak on non-social issues. Now many of those supporters are faced with the same choice as Hunter's supporters. Most of those who don't go to McCain will go to Romney. Huckabee will take the biggest hit on this shift.
Huckabee needs a strong showing in Florida to hang on, but isn't likely to get it. His organization is weak in Florida, and he doesn't seem to be building the excitement he had in Iowa which is certainly a different demographic. Giuliani, who bailed on state after state in order to put what he had left into a big win in Florida, is spent, and he will probably end well behind the pack. The big question still remains what happens to the Huckabeee and/or Giuliani supporters when one or both drop out? I believe they will both split to the remaining frontrunners with Romney ending up with
As in Nevada and Michigan, polling has been underreporting Romney supporters in Florida...until recently. It looks increasingly like Florida will go to Romney. There has been speculation about a possible endorsement from Jeb Bush to one of the candidates. If Jeb endorses anyone, it will be Romney with whom he has had a positive relationship for some time. If that happens, Romney nails it. If not, Romney is on his own with fairly strong momentum.
McCain needs to win this race, or hold his own in a tight matchup in order to stay in the game. A win would be the huge boost that he needs. A big loss would be tough to overcome on Super Tuesday. Romney, likewise, is in a similar situation, but better positioned, it appears.
Unless there are some big surprises next Tuesday, it looks like it will be Romney and McCain as the top picks going into February 5th.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Lena Saradnik's Replacement Selected
Nancy Wright gets the nod.
Despite getting 62 out of 76 votes cast by his district, Don Jorgenson was slammed by his fellow Democrats at the Board meeting this morning. Supervisor Bronson wisely anointed fellow Supervisors to make the motion and the 2nd to get a vote on Nancy thereby distancing herself from the back-door deal against Don.
Despite getting 62 out of 76 votes cast by his district, Don Jorgenson was slammed by his fellow Democrats at the Board meeting this morning. Supervisor Bronson wisely anointed fellow Supervisors to make the motion and the 2nd to get a vote on Nancy thereby distancing herself from the back-door deal against Don.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
A Bee Choice
This is a fascinating announcement and commentary posted on Sonoran Alliance regarding the Bee campaign's new pick for a third vice-chairman.
The first pick, Jim Click, was clearly symbolic in an effort to assure would-be contributors that Bee has the big money backing him. The second chairman, or co-chairman, Sandy Froman, is believed by many to be an effort to pull in northwest side activists as well as the conservatives due to Sandy's standing as the NRA Past-president and the respect she commands in her own district.
The reason for Jim Kolbe as a third co-chairman is much less apparent. If it's for the purpose of drawing in NRCC support, considering the substantial shift that has occurred in the NRCC since the Kolbe-Huffman fiasco of '06, we're left scratching our heads. Kolbe's joining the Giffords campaign during the last election has seriously weakened his influence...at least in the GOP, which further whittles down that chip.
In speculating on the motives of this move, it may be useful to assess the cost of these decisions. Although, Jim Click has stirred up plenty of controversy lately, the cost of his involvement is probably mostly offset by his ability to bring financial backing to the campaign. Sandy carries no baggage in the party and can only be a plus albeit not likely in the way the campaign anticipated. Nobody would argue that Kolbe, however, doesn't alienate a substantial percentage of party activists and members, regardless of who they supported in the CD8 Primary election.
How this will affect the Bee campaign, as a net positive or negative, remains to be seen. Perhaps it will become more apparent after Bee's announcement.
The first pick, Jim Click, was clearly symbolic in an effort to assure would-be contributors that Bee has the big money backing him. The second chairman, or co-chairman, Sandy Froman, is believed by many to be an effort to pull in northwest side activists as well as the conservatives due to Sandy's standing as the NRA Past-president and the respect she commands in her own district.
The reason for Jim Kolbe as a third co-chairman is much less apparent. If it's for the purpose of drawing in NRCC support, considering the substantial shift that has occurred in the NRCC since the Kolbe-Huffman fiasco of '06, we're left scratching our heads. Kolbe's joining the Giffords campaign during the last election has seriously weakened his influence...at least in the GOP, which further whittles down that chip.
In speculating on the motives of this move, it may be useful to assess the cost of these decisions. Although, Jim Click has stirred up plenty of controversy lately, the cost of his involvement is probably mostly offset by his ability to bring financial backing to the campaign. Sandy carries no baggage in the party and can only be a plus albeit not likely in the way the campaign anticipated. Nobody would argue that Kolbe, however, doesn't alienate a substantial percentage of party activists and members, regardless of who they supported in the CD8 Primary election.
How this will affect the Bee campaign, as a net positive or negative, remains to be seen. Perhaps it will become more apparent after Bee's announcement.
Sharon Bronson's Backroom Deal
Posted on Blog for Arizona is a letter from Lena Saradnik confronting Sharon Bronson on stacking the vote in favor of Nancy Young Wright as Lena's replacement. Apparently, there is a bit of cronyism going on and Lena's not too happy about it keeping her pick, Don Jorgenson, out of the picture.
Vote Trent v.1.0
OK, NOW the Trent Humphries 2008 website is up.
http://www.votetrent.com
We do have a few rough edges to knock off and a mountain of content to add, but I am very proud of the result so far.
And yes, grammar checks are welcome and appreciated.
http://www.votetrent.com
We do have a few rough edges to knock off and a mountain of content to add, but I am very proud of the result so far.
And yes, grammar checks are welcome and appreciated.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Thanks for the tip
There are two conservative Arizona political blogs that cover Southern Arizona. One of them even specializes in CD-8. Does the Bee campaign give either of them a tip on his announcement? No, we have to read about it on a less than conservative independent blog. I wonder if the campaign will want our help as the year progresses. We’ll still be here.
District 30 GOP update
Word is that Dr. Wayne Peate has decided to pass on running for the legislature this year. According to the information that we have that still leaves the following candidates (sorry we cannot find a web site for Sharon Collins.)
Frank Antenori
Sharon Collins
David Gowan
Doug Sposito
We have heard that Frank Antenori is very popular. The district has a history of also electing a woman to the house and that should benefit Sharon Collins. The fact that Sharon is a bit more conservative than Marian McClure should help Collins even more. Gowan has some name recognition because of multiple runs for the house. The more moderate Sposito may have trouble getting his message out above the other candidates.
Frank Antenori
Sharon Collins
David Gowan
Doug Sposito
We have heard that Frank Antenori is very popular. The district has a history of also electing a woman to the house and that should benefit Sharon Collins. The fact that Sharon is a bit more conservative than Marian McClure should help Collins even more. Gowan has some name recognition because of multiple runs for the house. The more moderate Sposito may have trouble getting his message out above the other candidates.
Lena Saradnik's Replacement Nominees Named
Thanks to fellow blogger Rum, Romanism and Rebellion for providing District 26's nominees for Lena Saradnik's replacement to finish the current session before this fall's election. It appears that the choices are (drum roll please):
Cheryl Cage
Don Jorgenson, current candidate
Nancy Young Wright
Tedski is betting on Wright as the County Board's pick, but where does that put Jorgenson who has been endorsed by Saradnik?
Cheryl Cage
Don Jorgenson, current candidate
Nancy Young Wright
Tedski is betting on Wright as the County Board's pick, but where does that put Jorgenson who has been endorsed by Saradnik?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)