Friday, July 21, 2006

Further Poll breakdown

Just got more information regarding the poll my colleague referred to and found a very interesting tidbit.

In a poll of likely voters, 56% of respondents said that the next Representative from CD8 should be at least as conservative or more conservative than Jim Kolbe. Only 36% said that the next Representative should be more liberal.

I will try to hunt down the internals, actual questions, and the firm responsible for the polling.

I'm not ready to mint this as gospel due to my already heavy distrust of polls, but if this is legit it is pretty huge news. It would mean that the Republicans are in pretty good shape and that the Democrats being pulled to the left for the Primary could be in dangerous territory. It would also confirm that the district is still status quo ante from the 2002 elections.

7 comments:

AZYouLikeIt said...

As you said, hunting down the firm and actual questions from the poll are crucial here.

For the moment, I'm assuming this was a push poll, or a non-representative sample of likely voters.

In the meantime, could you at least share which camp leaked the poll to you?

This sounds almost as unlikely as the last poll Jeff Latas cited.

Framer said...

I'm trying to get permission to give all the particulars.

However, the results shouldn't be all that suprising. The percentage roughly equals the percentage that Kolbe won with during the last election. In a conservative district (Bush by 7%) why would one assume that the perponderence of voters would want someone more liberal than Kolbe? The only way Kolbe was allowed to get as far left as he did was because he "evolved" as an incumbant. Had he ran as the candidate he is now twenty years ago, he never would have moved out of the primaries.

I believe that a lot of Democrats are pretty sold on the idea that Bush's 40% approval rating is a clear ticket to victory. I have yet to see any emperical evidence that this will be the case in CD-8 especially with the added ingredient of illegal immigration. This district is just slightly less red than CA-50 which we heard that Busby did a good job just to show in.

Make no mistake, if a Democrat wins, it will be becase she (or he) appears to be on the same level or just a shade left of Kolbe. Running full speed toward the left would be a disaster in this district.

Anonymous said...

“which camp leaked the poll”

Let’s use a little reasoning here. Antenori and Jenkins don’t have the money for polls. Huffman would never release such bad numbers. They would burn all copies.

That leaves Graf and Hellon. My guess is Graf because while the numbers show Mike beating Steve, Graf is still the clear leader. Probably a valid poll because of the large number of undecideds.

Kralmajales said...

The one question I have about the poll, and the results you site Framer, are whether those were Republican likely primary voters that were polled. If no Demos or independents were polled then it just says what I would expect. Likely primary voters are more conservative and would clearly want a more conservative candidate than Kolbe.

However, despite the leaning Republican registration in this district, there are a sizeable proportion of angry angry Democrats that would crawl over broken glass to vote in this next election. As they did in the Tucson City Elections this past year.

Plus, ya'll have really pissed off Hispanic voters which lean about 65-35 democrat in registration. I think trunout might be a little higher for this demographic this time....unless Russ Dove is there video-taping them as they come into the polls.

Framer said...

Roger,

My understanding is that this was a likely voter question and was not limited for Republicans.

Keep in mind that Tucson wide elections include a good portion of Grijalva's district. Prop 200 didn't pass overall in Pima county, but passed overwhelmingly in District 8. The two disticts were drawn to be totally different creatures, and they really are.

Again I think a lot of people are seriously trying to make this into a 1994 scenario, when it is simply not. For many people, even hard-core Bush Haters, there is little correlation between George Bush and this congressional election. If they can't directly cast a vote against Bush, it is not the same.

Then add in the illegal immigration factor. There is simply no other issue that will trump that issue in this district. Do you want to talk health care instead? What are you going to do about the millions of dollars that are spent in the LOCAL health care system on illegal aliens? Understand this issue will not be solved by a guest worker program. Want to talk about education, illegal immigration is an issue there too, as it is in the minimum wage debate.

And if I am totally wrong, and illegal immigration is not that big of a deal, then Steve Huffman will win the primary and the Republicans are still covered. If it is the overriding issue, what fallback to the Democrats have? Is there any difference at all between the Democratic candidates on this issue? Are they allowed to have any differences?

It is the last is why I think that the Republican party is in overall better health at this point. They have problems and failings, but there is still room for discussion about larger issues and orthodoxy has not been drilled down to a single vote about Wal-Mart.

The Guard said...

I wonder how that would have played out if Randy Graf won the 2004 GOP nomination, defeating Kolbe.

The Committee said...

Everything I have seen on this suggests this was a legitimate poll conducted by an independent polling organization. I see no reason this would be considered a push poll like one of the early polls conducted for the Huffman campaign.