Saturday, November 10, 2007

The Tidball factor

In early November Sonoran Alliance broke the news that a credible independent candidate is running in the eighth congressional district. They did not seem too worried about his campaign and even wondered if Tidball took votes away from Gabby more than Bee.

SED then contacted Tidball and did a good follow-up story. Matt did not specifically address the issue of whom Tidball helped or hurt by being in the race.

I have learned through sources that Tidball has the higher-ups in the Republican establishment all worked up. Despite the fact that Tidball is registered and running as an independent there is talk within Republican circles of getting him out of the race. How does that work exactly, telling someone outside your party whether to run or not? There is more to come on this story and we will be very interested to see if Tidball is still in the race come 2008.

2 comments:

roger said...

Very interesting post.

There is a reason why a third party candidate might be of concern to Bee's campaign and GOP insiders.

Remember incumbency advantage? For a challenger to beat an incumbent (even in a district like this) the waters have to be clear, and not muddy. Every possible vote must come the challenger's way and any distraction at all damages the challenger.

In the coming year, independents are breaking dramatically to Dems (so far) AND there is a question about whether some Republicans might also vote for an independent. Likely, some angry dems could vote for an independent as well if angry at the incumbent.

Bee needs a one on one race to have any chance of beating Giffords.

That is why the independent presents a bit a pickle here.

I agree, though, how do they get rid of him when he is not even in their party? Does this indicate that the GOP has more in common with this person than to Dems?

Anonymous said...

I think 2006 proved "credible" means "has raised or can raise one million dollars". Certaily a six figure ante at that game.