Saturday, January 05, 2008

And the Speculating Continues...

So here we are on the eve of the second day of presidential caucusing for 2008 and nobody is even talking about it with "it" being Wyoming's caucuses. As bad as it makes me feel, I don't plan to discuss it either. Instead, here are my thoughts about the upcoming primaries minus Wyoming:

I won't say much about the Democrat side other than sharing the idea that if Edwards and Obama split the anti-Hillary vote, and Edwards is likely to bail early in the process, those votes should shift to Obama giving him a huge boost in the more Hillary-favored states. After his comfortable victory in Iowa, he has momentum and looks more and more like a tough competitor to Hillary.

As for Republicans, it came as no surprise that Huckabee won in Iowa. What was unexpected by some, including yours truly, was the margin by which he won. Of course, the evangelical supporters Huckabee has in Iowa don't exist at that level in most other states, so Huckabee should savor the victory and hope the momentum helps carry him in other states. But the reality is, he doesn't have that kind of support in more than a handful of states, and he has no money to work on boosting his image in the other states. This is the high mark for the Huckabee campaign although strong wins in Michigan and South Carolina can help him hold on longer.

Romney didn't have to win Iowa, but a closer second certainly would have helped him. Romney will likely win in New Hampshire and probably win in Michigan by a narrow margin. If he loses either state by a significant margin, he is in trouble. But if he loses New Hampshire, he may begin losing supporters who will worry that he can't win it all. He is doing okay in South Carolina which is all he has to do to stay in the game provided he does well in New Hampshire and Michigan as expected. Likewise, finishing strong in Nevada and Florida coupled with a win or close second in New Hampshire and Michigan puts him in position to take most of the marbles on Super Tuesday.

Despite what some have said about McCain, I think he's definitely in the game. He may show strong results in New Hampshire and Michigan which could give him the boost he needs, but it gets tougher after that. If he can maintain his momentum with reasonable showings in Nevada and Florida, he may have enough to show some surprises on Super Tuesday.

Giuliani is getting more and more difficult to gauge as his numbers slide. Of course, his best is ahead of him with a possible decent showing in New Hampshire, and very good chances in Nevada and Florida where he will be duking it out with Romney in what will likely be close races. A couple of strong victories here will position him well for February.

Thompson won't last much longer and will soon shift his support to McCain. Many of his supporters will move to Romney's camp, however. If Huckabee fades quickly, he will be the next to bail and his supporters will split between McCain and Romney. This could have a substantial impact on the outcome for the remaining three candidates.

Anyone recruiting VP candidates?

8 comments:

The Real Sporer said...

Let it go forth from this place and time

The Real Sporer loves Wyoming. You know I'm talking about it baby.

Liza said...

I think that you need to consider the possibility that a vote for Obama or Edwards is not necessarily an anti-Hillary vote. It can also be pro-Obama or pro-Edwards. As much as she would like to believe that she is in control of this 2008 election, there are a lot of Democratic voters who just simply believe that there are better qualified and more appealing candidates.

roger said...

Check this out, CNNs poll released today mirrors that of Rasmussen's poll. A BIG bounce for Obama...as predicted.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/06/nh.poll/index.html

A win here and I really think he is in the driver's seat big time.

Liza said...

Roger,
That is REALLY interesting. I am praying that Obama wins big in NH.

Do you think that Hillary did herself some serious damage with her remarks in NH about her being the "real agent of change for the last 35 years?" Then she proceeded to attack Obama. I think it is poor judgment on her part to publicly state that Bill's career was her career as well.

I'll be frank about this. She sounded like a bitch. Just another garden variety bitch and who wants that for a US president? No wonder the Republicans are praying she wins the nomination.

roger said...

Hey Liza:

I think what we are seeing is both desperation and what I call being flustered and angry. It was like she wanted to grab people through the TV, wring their neck, shake them, and say "He's alllll talk and I have earned this!!!!". I think going negative this close means clearly that her internal polls show her losing. One would never go negative in the final days unless you have no other option.

The amazing thing to me also is how people in her camp seem to be angry about the independents and young people backing Obama. Ironic because she has straddled issues hoping to attract moderate independents...and because the Clinton's were all about young people in the past.

The one thing that makes polls typically inacurrate is when new voters show up that polls don't and can't predict. Polling models are based, in a sense, on past voters. When a new demographic shows up, all goes haywire.

Liza said...

Roger,
I think that Hillary is getting some bad advice about what she might gain from going negative.

She said this, "I'm running on 35 years of change. I'm running on having taken on the drug companies and the health insurance companies, taking on the oil companies."

Is she delusional? Any minute now someone is bound to ask for facts. Does she think that Bill being president is the same as if she were president? I agree that Bill put her in charge of "national healthcare" and the result was total failure. She was elected to the Senate in 2000 and the Democrats haven't advanced much of anything. What has this ding bat really done?

You're right about the anger. Hillary, Inc. is fuming because the people are not falling in line.

In the meantime, they seem to think they have nothing to lose by attacking Obama for being "all words and no action" and promoting Hillary's "35 years" of achievement. Has Karl Rove been advising them or what?

Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...

Anonymous,

Get a life. Like every candidate isn't being attacked on one of these web sites.