Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Some Analysis of GOP polling

I'm not even going to touch the Democratic portion of the poll other than say I overestimated the support for Patty Weiss. I guess I need to hang out with more liberal bloggers.

On the GOP side, reference this post I made 5 weeks ago.

Today's poll release shows that the leaked poll results I got then seem to be stunningly accurate. They were:

30% Graff
12% Hellon
4% Huffman

with 54% undecided.

What this would seem to show is that almost a quarter of the previous undecideds have decided and Huffman seems to be picking them up in greater numbers due to his advertising blitz. However, Graf looks to have received a good share of these voters as well with far less money spent and if the current undecideds continue to split at this rate, there are not enough of them for Steve to make the race competitive. Especially as a large percentage of the remaining undecideds aren't likely to show up and vote in the primary if history holds.

Hellon, on the other hand seems to be holding steady with the supporters that he held a month ago. Before the window-peeping flap it could have been argued that Hellon had topped out. It will be interesting to see what the coming week holds for him.

As of now, barring an implosion of some sort, Randy Graf looks to be Republican nominee for CD-8.

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