Sunday, October 08, 2006

The McCain Endorsement

Yep, that is the news I was hearing about.

This is likely to be minimized by my friends and brethren on the left, but this is the best possible development that could have happened to Graf this week short of Gabby getting caught sacrificing puppies to the Harvest Moon (and if I were the state Democratic Party I would point out that we have no evidence to suggest that she hasn't been doing this for years.)

There is no more respected and popular politician in power in Arizona than John McCain. Love him or hate him, you better respect him. He brings tons of independent and dare I say "squishy Democrat" appeal. The beauty of his endorsement is the single group of voters who are the most likely to discount McCain are already solidly behind Graf, and aren't going anywhere.

It also blunts and almost erases any sting from Kolbe's refusal to endorse Graf. After all, McCain and Graf are supposedly polar opposites on what many would consider their signature issues at this point, yet McCain is saying that everything else matters more. Kolbe could never single out what it was about Graf that made him unsupportable. Again, this endorsement highlights Kolbe's pettiness and makes him irrelevant.

This gives Graf supporters a response to those Republicans and Independents who have been led to believe that Graf is too extreme, but are leary of voting for a Democrat. There are more than enough of these voters to win the election for Graf, and nearly all of them are McCain supporters.

Finally, it is a good move for McCain. The people lining up behind Graf are the same people who would be most likely to fight a McCain presidential run. It would be very good for McCain to be able to point out who was there to help Randy Graf and who was not when the chips were down. If Graf were to win, this example would be valid nationally, especially if it were to save the House from being turned over to Democrats.

Now it would be icing on the cake to get some type of recant from Jim Click and Steve Huffman to go along with this endorsement. Especially if it were to take place before the debates.


Anonymous said...

Just so you know, Jim Click has already stated openly and resolutely that he is 100% behind Randy Graf and that he encourages everyone else to get on board as well.

Anonymous said...

This means nothing. Pro-amnesty voters aren't going to support Graf just because McCain does. Endorsements are pretty meaningless anyway, particularly in general elections. Kolbe's endorsement would mean even less.

Framer said...


Normally, I agree, endorsements are generally mauch ado about nothing. There are, however, key endorsements that DO make a difference. Had Click and Kolbe endorsed Hellon over Huffman, we would have had an entirely different primary. Had McCain endorsed Graf during the primary, he would have won by at least 20%.

The trick is to get an endorsement that overcomes a perceived weakness. Emily's List or any of the newspapers going for Gabby doesn't help her much, because they are a given for the Pro-abortion female Democrat. If the Weekly endorsed Graf. That would be notable and useful.

Randy's current problem is with moderate pro-Bush voters. If he gets them, he wins going away. The McCain endorsement fits that demographic perfectly and insulates Graf from the "Moderate Republicans hate him" meme that the press and the Giffords backers have been broadcasting.

The problem Giffords has is that there is no endorsement that she can likely get that will offset this pickup from Graf. And Graf still has a few possibilities out there that could help him further.

Gabby's game is peaking, to her credit she has just about maximized every possible advantage. She now needs to run out the clock because Graf can and WILL surge.

Anonymous said...

What affect will the revelations that Kolbe knew about Foley as early as 2000 have on the CD8 race?

Anonymous said...

Kolbe’s part in the Mark Foley saga will not impact the current CD 8 race. It’s like Jim has gone into hiding. If you look at his recent appearance on Arizona Illustrated, where even the liberals were tough on him, who could blame him. Kolbe is counting the days until he can get off to parts elsewhere.

Dittos that Click long ago fell in line. Huffman is less important since he had votes but no supporters. What is Huffman going to do, send his chief fundraiser over to Graf? Oh, sorry that happened a long time ago.

McCain’s endorsement will matter if he does a radio ad, records a get out the vote robo call for Randy, or does even a luncheon fundraiser. This race is going to be close and the Democrats know that. If just got a tiny bit closer. I am sure Graf will be happy to win this one day at a time.

As Graf gets closer and closer in the polls he may start to take on a mythical status due to his success despite the snubs of the NRCC.

x4mr said...

You can go here for what I really think about this, but on this turf will just say that this is way more about 2008 than 2006.

Framer's anticipation that us lefties would not be particularly impressed is accurate. This favors McCain more than Graf.

Where this might help Graf where the pen hits the ballot on 11/7 is with the casual republican voter dubious of Graf who because of endorsement says, "Well, ok."

Watched the Patriots game yesterday with a very conservative bible minded Republican, and you guys had better hope he is not a representative sample of what is happening.

He is PISSED. The negative primary stuff disgusted him. A staunch R and in their database, he got tons of stuff in the mail, on the phone, by various R machinery.

Foley didn't help, but it was the local stuff that turned him off. Oh yea, the corruption and utterly out of control deficit added fuel to the rage.

This is a guy that has photos of George and Laura Bush on his mantle, and he is staying home on 11/7.

Framer said...


So if you believe that "the wall" is going to kill business and development, then you concede that it will fulfill it's primary purpose to slow down illegal immigration. Do you think that is a positive or a negative in this election?

And again with the business type Republicans "uniting behing Giffords." Gabby is on record on several occassions in the primary as stating that she would vote to raise taxes. Any time taxes get upped, businesses are the primary casulty as they don't vote. "Repeal tax cuts for the rich" also means "stick it to big business" which also ALWAYS affects small business in a negative manner.

The Chamber of Commerce understands this. They look at records, and they even have ratings. Guess what those ratings tell them about who is better for business?

I'll give you a hint, They endorsed him. If they watch enough Gabby ads, maybe they change their mind however. If it says so on the TV, it must be true.

Liza said...

Here's something the Democrats can use and I'm quoting some old guard Republican whose name I can't remember: "A tax cut that is not accompanied by a decrease in spending is BY DEFINITION a tax deferrment."

Yes, Republicans, look at your adorable little children and grandchildren and imagine them scrubbing toilets at Wal-Mart (only jobs available) to pay back the Chinese for the two billion dollar per week occupation of Iraq, the tax cuts for the super wealthy, the war profiteering lootfest, the pharmaceutical company lootfest (aka the Medicare Prescription Drug Plan), and all the rest of the drunk sailor spending (with nothing to show) of the current administration.

Oh, yes, and Social Security privatization (aka the Wall Street lootfest) will soon rear its ugly head again so get ready for that too.

These past six years have been one long "future" taxpayer funded gold rush for the super rich and the corporations that bankroll the Republican party. If you want more of the same plus another lootfest on the Mexican border (already in progress), then vote for Graf, vote for Kyl, and by all means, listen to John McCain.

Framer said...


I believe that you are an Independant in the same sense that Jim Pederson is an Independant. You can claim to be whatever you wish.

You have definately struck a different tone than what you had in the past. I believe that you wear confidence much better than uncertainty.

Look, I lived in Russia for a period of time. The Russian government, state or local had no duty to teach me or my family Russian. If I wanted to live there, the responsibility was all mine. I was also regulated via visa as to how long I could stay or what I could do in the country. This was annoying at times, but I was a guest. I was there to serve at the whim and for the benefit of the Russian school system, and I understood that. Should I have become a dissadent, they could rightfully have sent me home.

The overall cost to our district FAR exceeds the cost of the fence. A high percentage of the people coming across the border are good people, that is not arguable. However, we currently have no way to sift out the other percentage of drug smugglers, criminals, and even more nefarious characters. If we can't limit traffic, we can't control anything. Despite the misdirection of "Republicans want to send 12 million hard working families home!" This is what we want: to know who is entering our country, why they are here, where they are at, and have a general idea of what they are doing when they are here. This is not at all unreasonable, every other country in the world does it.

The cost to our local health care and education system is also staggering and unsustainable with the current situation. I would at least expect the representative in our district to be an advocate for our district in this matter. Giffords record shows that this just isn't a concern to her.

I am open for ANY evidence to the contrary not contained in a Giffords ad.

Framer said...


And by the way. The good news for Graf is not finished yet.

Liza said...


I found the good news and in the mainstream media, strangely enough. Republicans, say good-bye to the House of Representatives (and good riddance).

Liza said...

You know, I think just one more Republican crook or pervert (at the national level) in time for the General election would give the Democrats a very comfortable majority in the House.

Anonymous said...

Interesting. I spoke with Randy Graf on Friday night and he specifically mentioned opposing the McCain-Kennedy guest worker proposal. I'm not sure what to think of the insider stuff going on there. Any perspectives?

(Skip to about 12:40 in the MP3 to go straight to the McCain deal.)

Liza said...

It is always interesting to me when a person such as yourself who knows SO LITTLE about SO MUCH spouts off some sentence such as like "income tax receipts are at an all time high." What does that say about the distribution of wealth? Nothing. What does that say about median family income? Nothing. What does that say about employment? Nothing. What does that say about the trade deficit? Nothing. What does that say about inflation? Nothing. What does that say about the annual budget deficit? Nothing. What does that say about the public debt? Nothing. What does that say about the value of the currency? Nothing. And the list goes on, but I won't press the point.

As a matter of fact, I did graduate from college, I majored in economics and I went to private schools. I think I can hold my own in both macroeconomic and microeconomic theory as well as an understanding of the global economy and even the financial markets. If you want to know something about economics why don't you listen to one of your own, Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley?

When are you Republicans who spend your lives listening to talk radio where people who know SO LITTLE about SO MUCH indoctrinate people who never learned to think going to realize how you're being manipulated?

Republican "trickle down" economics does not work. The major flaw in pure capitalism is greed.

And, if you want to get into it with me about the problems with Democrats, then you might find yourself preaching to the choir.

And, by the way, telling other people how stupid they are is not exactly the premise of logical argument, but you Republicans haven't figured that out. I mean really, what is left to say with such a dismal performance record? There is nothing left to do except tell your challengers how stupid they are.

Oh, and another thing for the rest of you, Graf is going to LOSE this election and the Republicans will most likely lose the House of Representatives.

x4mr said...

Geez, Louise, 206!! And don't hold back, Liza!

Why don't I get juicy threads like this over at my place? Oh well.

Did you notice the time of that email? That thing was sent on a Sunday night shortly before midnight.

Poor ol' Daniel was probably pushing hour 18 at that point. Cut the guy a little slack on your assessment of his inspirational email skills.

Any smart campaign is going to work to maintain sense of urgency until 7 PM on 11/7 and take nothing, nothing for granted.

Liza said...

Great posts at 9:12 and 9:21. I must have been writing while you were posting.

Just another thought here for our Republican talk radio economic gurus. Please explain to me what the Republican lootfest I discussed above has to do with macroeconomics? The big government gold rush give away of the last six years is about croneyism, corporate greed, corruption, and gettin' it while the gettin' is good.

So, gurus, get real on this "economic" trash talk that you people absorb by some weird osmosis process from your talk radio friends. We can't spend our way out of the mountain of debt that we owe to foreign nations, mostly in Central Asia, by simply borrowing more money from them. It is not sustainable and you will be hard pressed to explain how it can continue. Yes, the global economy is more complex than the little models studied in ECO 101 if you even got that far.

I haven't figured out why some threads take off and others don't. You have great posts, so keep it up. A lot of people are reading, I'm sure.

x4mr said...

Thanks for noting the remark and kind words, Liza, and really not complaining.

It's a mixed bag. Art posted for months with absolutely no comments responding. Then one time I remember he was so exasperated with everything coming in he threatened to turn off comments completely.

I believe it's Espresso Pundit that does not and never did accept comments.

I don't get that at all. I'm interested in what others have to say.

Tad said...

Have you gotten this poll from GOPBloggers?

Liza said...

Does anyone know what became of "phx kid?" Did he morph into ""

Liza said...

He is, but I thought "206" might be his alter ego. Anyhow, he's over at RR@R today.