Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Arizona Presidential Preference

In way-too-early polling (and with way-too-early analysis by us) Northern Arizona University has provided us with a snapshot of the current presidential preferences of registered Arizona Voters.

Really Good News goes to John McCain who would currently demolish any of the slated Democratic challengers in Arizona. It appears that all of the Conservatives who claim that they would vote for a Democrat over McCain blinked when given an opportunity.

McCain 58% Clinton 37%
McCain 56% Edwards 39%
McCain 54% Obama 39%

Good News goes to John Edwards. Of the Democratic Challengers, he seems to stack up the best alongside of the Republicans. He even has a lead over Mitt Romney that lies just outside of the Margin of Error. This should help future fundraising in the State.

Edwards 43% Giuliani 51%
Edwards 39% McCain 56%
Edwards 49% Romney 43%

Bad News for Mitt Romney. He is the only Republican candidate that currently projects as losing Arizona to a Democratic Candidate. On the plus side, Obama is within the margin of error, and he is still well within striking distance of Edwards, both of whom have had much more exposure to this point. This has to be troubling to the campaign narrative, however.

Romney 49% Clinton 43%
Romney 43% Edwards 49%
Romney 43% Obama 46%

Really Bad News for Hillary Clinton. With name recognition at about 100%, Hillary gets beat pretty well by all Republican challengers. There is little chance for her to bring up her numbers barring a complete meltdown by the Republican in an actual Presidential race. Should Hillary be the eventual nominee, Arizona appears to be a lock for the Republicans.

Clinton 37% Giuliani 56%
Clinton 37% McCain 58%
Clinton 43% Romney 49%


Michael Bryan said...

A few disagreements (my own analysis of this poll is up):

Edwards' lead over Romney is not statistically significant. I am reading you comment about his lead to indicate that his lead is greater than the MoE, and it is not.

I don't think this is good news for McCain. In fact, that he did not significantly out perform Giuliani is very damaging to him.

Nor do I think this is bad news for Romney. He has some natural advantages (Mormon) and disadvantages (relatively unknown) that explain his performance.

I don't think this poll is all that strong evidence of Edwards' superiority over Obama. They are polling nearly identically: identically in the case of McCain. It does give evidence for either of them over Clinton, however.

Where we agree is that this doesn't look like any good news for Clinton, no matter how you spin it.

Anonymous said...

Eh...its early. I applaud the fantastic post Framer and gave you a bit of a shot out on Ted's reporting of it (not that he did a bad job).

I am hearing that there is a lot of strength in Pima for Edwards and am seeing it...especially among trial lawyers. Obama, though, also has a nice organization going of young people, college students, and others on the web.

As to McCain....he'd BETTER do well here in the polls, he is our Senator. I am not sure that the totals I am seeing do much for him. I would have expected 60% or more here in Arizona. Not good news for him in that respect...and what he needs to be worrying about is Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

I do think Clinton is in trouble. There is a great story right now linked from CNN I think to Time about how she is adjusting her campaign to that of Obama. A good read for political junkies.

Anonymous said...

Oh...and the above post is Good Ole Kral...for some reason I am having trouble posting on your site Framer...and no suggestions from me that you have kicked me off. Didn't want you to miss me or to look like I was secretly hiding.

Framer said...

I can assure you that I have made no changes to my site for months, and that I haven't banned anyone.

McCain is doing as well as he should in Arizona, at least as far as these head-to-head matchups go. Giuliani is creeping up on him, but I suspect that a Fred Thomas entry would draw more from Rudy than McCain or Romney for that matter. McCain and Romney supporters like Thompson, but like their guy more.

If you held a gun to my head, I would predict that the Democratic nominee would be Edwards. Obama will be exposed a bit tonight. I really hope it is Hillary from a republican standpoint, but I would really fear Richardson, who will do well tonight as well.

Anonymous said...

Hi Framer:

Kral again...I didn't think you had banned never ever gave that cheers.

The thing I would watch out for about your analysis is what polls say when Thompson enters the race. I get the podcast daily of the Gallop poll. So far tracking polls show that when Thompson is in the race, it practically zeros out Romney and really really hurts McCain too. Actually, Giuliani loses some support too but stays in the lead.

Obviously, over time this can change a lot though.



Framer said...


On a national level perhaps, but pay attention to New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, et. al. This is where McCain and Romney are shooting, and these people do like their coddling. A late entering Fred THompson with little groung infrastructure won't do much to damage those with good ground games in these states.

Rudy's ground game is suspect.