Monday, June 26, 2006

Slow News Day

Sorry I haven't reported in a while. I am actually "efforting" some leads and hope to have some original interviews and news going up shortly.

In the meantime, however, I intend to solve the internal Democratic spat that has spilled over into just about every corner of the Southern Arizona Political Blogosphere. Seeing as I cannot hope to have a in-depth grasp on the issues important to the liberal end of the spectrum in comparison to those visiting my site, I had to find a way to get a direct answer, free of any campaigning or outside persuasion. This has the added bonus of being able to determine actual candidate intent, which is sometimes not possible to do before election day. Time to consult the Oracle.

My first thought was be to use the trusty magic eight ball. However, fate kept giving me the "ask again later," which got me nowhere.

So I turned to Numerology. Using the URL of each candidates campaign web site, I was able to break down the text of each site into corresponding numbers using a handy generator. The resulting numeric patterns then clued me in to the soul of each candidate. Here are the results:

Francine Shacter-- 63% evil, 37% good
Gabrielle Giffords-- 32% evil, 68% good
Jeff Latas-- 29% evil, 63% good
Alex Rodriguez -- 25% evil, 75% good
Patty Weiss-- 1% evil, 99% good

So, overall, the Democrats are fielding a pretty benevolent group for the primary with the exception of the slightly twisted Francine Shacter (who knew?).

So based on this, the official ArizonaEighth Numerology Endorsement for the Democratic Primary goes to Patty Weiss as the most "good" candidate.

--I promise to have some more serious posting soon.


Anonymous said...

You'd think there would be a GOP poll that someone would want to publish by now...

Anonymous said...

They wouldn't want to publish them, because all the polls are showing the same thing: Patty wins the general. There's NOTHING worth touting for any of the other campaigns. That's why there have been at least five, likely six polls taken in CD 8, and the only two that have been published are from Patty's camp.

It's also why the republicans keep talking up Gabby as the anointed Democratic nominee -- they know they can beat her.

Framer said...

I'm pretty sure that any GOP poll would still be lopsided in Randy Graf's favor at this point. Besides the obvious name recognition factor, there are a couple of other things that lead me to believe this:

1. Huffman's campaign at this point is in the doldrums. see his "Press Room" page on his web site. Every one of his Campaign News clips is about his Kolbe endorsement. There is nothing really going on at this point to attract attention to him or excite prospective voters. This showed in the minimal amount of signatures he turned in as well. Obviously he intends to spend money on a media blitz closer toward the primary. This will probably make up ground in any potential polling numbers, but I would bet that he is still relatively unknown to casual Primary voters. He is probably banking on the assumption that no one is really paying attention at this point, which could be the case.

2. Mike Hellon's recent ads on the radio show that his position on border control are moving closer to Graf's. Although there is one sentence about a guest worker program, the remainder of the ad sounds suspiciously like something from the Graf plan, and certainly more enforcement driven then the plan laid out on his website. The fact that he is running toward Graf's position would lead me to believe that Graf's position is strong.

What would be interesting to see, however, is if the internal polls taken a few weeks ago and the most recent polls show a drop in support of Graf due to the Steve Aiken kerfuffle. It appears that Hellon seems to think so and is spending money targeting Graf voters with his new ads, but unless we see a poll or some movement from Steve Huffman, we cannot be sure to the degree that this has cost Graf.

I would highly doubt that we will see a candidate released poll at all in this race on the Republican side. I don't believe that Graf will spend the money on it, and there is no upside to the others releasing a poll showing themselves trailing.

Kralmajales said...

Good post framer...and I absolutely loved the magic eightball thing, even if it was at Democrat expense.

Framer's last point about why people would release a poll or their own on is interesting. Take this to Weiss. Why, if she was leading, would she release the poll showing she is?

The danger in this, of course, is that it is a self-declaration of being the frontrunner. The media reacted rather negatively to it in the Citizen and on Arizona Illustrated.

It also sets you up for a fall. Releasing a poll that showing you to be the winner sets expectations high. If she starts dropping in other polls as time goes along...momentum shifts to the gainers and everyone asks what is wrong with the broken campaign.

Here is my not so wild speculation. Giffords was getting virtually all the endorsements, Weiss was stalled and starved for the news (except to say that the Granddaughter of FDR endorsed her), and the all important this:

June 30th is the fundraising deadline for the quarter for the FEC. It is looked to...especially now...for strength of a candidate's organization and ability to win. Weiss needed badly to get her supporters excited and donating. It might work...lets see in about 15 days or so.

My thoughts on donations:

Giffords actually raised more in her second quarter reporting than in the first. She set at 500K. She has picked up endorsements since and the expectations need to be for her to raise more than the other candidates in this quarter. If she raises as least as much as much as she did in the last quarter (about 250K) she and her campaign is incredible

Weiss made gains last time but still did not raise as much in her first reporting period as Giffords did in her first (or second). She needs to really ramp it up and make gains. I think, my opinion, she needs to double her money at least and at best outraise Giffords in the current quarter. She needs to show that she can be viable in the fall. 250K in this reporting period would turn my head (even as a Giffords supporter)...but if Giffords does better than that...there is no gain. disappointment last time. What was it, 29K? He really needs to make a big big splash this time. I don't even know what will do it because he is already so far behind, but he does have vigorous support from grassroots (or it is claimed). If he can get to 100K total (not for the quarter) I will take notice and so should others...especially the Weiss crew who will be fighting it out with him for the true progressives (whatever that is).

I will do the GOP next time...want to weigh in Framer?

'Zona Dem said...

I disagree. Anything less than a million has got to be a huge disappointment for the Giffords camp. Gabby needs at least $900K raised to be competitive. Anything less than $800K raised, and... well, turn out the lights on this primary!

sirocco said...

Numerology resolves it all ... can't argue with the science. :)

My thoughts largely align with Roger's concerning the release of the poll data. As I have noted in threads elsewhere, I really don't think even the released information is ver good for Patty. The only reason I can see for it is to try to use it as a wedge to get in the door with potential donors.

The one thing money/advertising absolutely can buy you is name recognition. I believe Patty is concerned the money lead Giffords has is going to overcome the Weiss recognition lead.

Framer said...

I'm of two minds about whether or not big money is going to be effective in the primary. Of course it is always better to have the money and media blitz then not to have it, but I think the conventional wisdom might not hold.

Looking at the Busby v. Bilbray race, the thing that absolutely stunned me was the turnout. I beleive it was close to record lows, if not the actual low. WIth all of the hype, I would have there would have been more voters. It may be that "normal" people are just sick of politics and need a breather.

The truth is, there are political junkies who are following this race, then there is everyone else. I believe that the "everyone else" portion of the electorate is likely to sit this primary out in great numbers. Many of the "Undecideds" "soft supporters" in Patty's poll are probably not going to vote. The only caveat to this is if there is a driving issue out there that a candidate addresses that will expand the "political junkie" base. What absolute issue or issues does Giffords or Weiss address that keeps people awake at nights? It will have to be something more than "We need to beat the Republican, and only I can do it!" as neither can lay absolute claim to that mantle at this point. The first candidate to grab an important issue and own it will have an upper hand.

Money can buy recognition, but it cannot buy grassroots. The better part of the people who are actually going to vote, are probably already engaged at some level in the party or this race. I'm not sure that spending more money is going to attract a large swath of new voters to the primary. Finding and converting a "believer" that will drag his or her family and friends to the polls is worth far more than a street sign and a television commercial.

Believers are built on issues, and at this point I'm not seeing the "big idea" from either Patty or Gabby that is going to bring the non-diehards to the primary. Clean elections and the Walmart debate don't qualify as "big." They help reenforce the current believer's choices, but they will not decide the campaign.

So the final answer is that if Patty or Gabby are not satisfied in the current strength of their grassroots (I do not believe this can be quantified and compared at this point, so they shouldn't be satisfied) they will need to take a risk on the issues. Otherwise it will be a nailbiter all the way through, no matter what the money situation is.

The rub is that an issue risk that helps them in the primary, is likely to have a negative effect in the general (thus the risk), which is why many of their policy stands are so scripted and similar at this point. Money nor name recognition will mint "believers". This will be done face to face campagning and selling issues. The better the issue, the easier and quicker the sale which equals more believers.

Keep in mind that most of what I am saying applies to the primary. The General will be another thing entirely.

What is the issue that will create diehard Primary voters? I know what it is for the Republicans, not sure what it is for the Democrats at this point. The first to find it and own it will win the grassroots battle and the Primary regardless of name recognition or money in the bank.

Kralmajales said...

First, ZONA DEM, Yes she will need well over a million in the fall to win, but she will not need to get it in this reporting period.

If we follow your logic, then so do the other candidates. It takes time and effort to raise money and by all accounts Giffords is leading and will continue to after this period. The question is how much do Weiss and Latas catch much does much does Hellon and Graf on Huffman...and bigger...who has money in the bank for the 30 days before the primary...and later in the fall.

So if Gabby needs a mill. now, doesn't Weiss too?

Kralmajales said...

Framer is right about the primary and grassroots politics. Soft support will not turn out in a primary. Period. Few independents do, few that are not political junkies or those who are party activists do.

In this race, that benefits Giffords and Latas right now and on the Republican side it benefits Graf (unless his image is shot).

Why Giffords and Latas? Well, Giffords has had a base from her work in the legislature from a long time. She has most endorsements and many of the activists in the party. They will show up for her. Patty is making those connections, but can't seem to pull this. Latas is the one with the fiery grassroots progressive support. His task is to keep Patty and her manager who worked for Dean from co-opting it.

Graf may get the hard core active conservatives. Will the moderate business types show up for Huffman? How much internal support does Hellon have and can he steal some activist support from Graf?

I think Hellon is building some momentum here, but lots of business party folks like Hellon I hear, will they turn out for him in a primary though.