Keep in mind that Kenski worked for the Kolbe campaign, and while she may be a very good pollster, those people hate Graf more than others hate Polka, you can be sure that she will do her level best to try to downplay any Graf success in her analysis, even though it is quite difficult to do with those numbers.
I would also expect that a lot of the 43% non-Graf supporters that she cites as not willing to vote for another candidate if nominated are Hellon people who will not vote for Huffman. A lot of bad blood there before the injunction on Monday.
But, I'm just another squirrel in search of a nut, so I could be wrong.
Huffman apparently has nothing from his eight years in the House to brag about, so he's trying to dredge up Graf criticisms that didn't work that well for Kolbe two years ago. Some of the GOP big shots are going to court Graf and, to a lesser extent, Hellon to cut their losses. They may also take another look at Giffords and Weiss.
It would have been interesting to see how the GOP campaign would have played out had the anti-Graf people coalesced behind one candidate early on in the race. The animus between Hellon and Huffman would not have allowed one of those guys to be that person, although I think Hellon has conducted his campaign with savvy and maturity. However, after Giffords takes this seat in November, local Republicans may recall the pivotal day in this campaign as the one when Ray Carroll decided not to run.
I plan on addressing this in a future post, but I don't think that Steve's failure to mail out early voting pamphlets is the root of the problem, it is a symptom of a larger issue.
Keep in mind that 5 weeks ago Steve was polling at around 4%. All of the gain that he has received since that point has come on the back of his television advertising. People swayed to your campaign by television aren't grassroots and likely aren't on any list that Steve can access and exploit.
Imagine having the money to do such a mailing and the resources but no list of individuals you can be certain will vote for you. The last thing you want to do is gamble on someone you are unsure about as they may use your mailing to vote against you. And by the percentages you are seeing, there is a good chance the ballot WILL be used to vote against Steve.
He may pursue this strategy if the numbers start moving his way in the coming weeks, but outside of that I bet he plans on people showing up in the day of the Primary.
Just a bit deeper on this, and then I will back off (I will probably put this on the subscriber side :) ). It really wasn't Huffman's acumen or skills that was able to earn him the endorsements he recieved. The way that I hear it, all he had to do was gain was gain the support of one individual, and the rest fell into place, including the Kolbe endorsement and the edge in fundraising.
If you check the past state congressional voting records, I believe that Graf had a better business rating than Huffman. However, as long as Steve is in the race, a lot of other politicians and business organizations are not likely to cross some of his stronger supporters and move toward Randy, at least not publicly. It really isn't about Huffman.
Again, take it for what it is worth, but my sources on this have proven pretty good.
5 comments:
Roger,
Keep in mind that Kenski worked for the Kolbe campaign, and while she may be a very good pollster, those people hate Graf more than others hate Polka, you can be sure that she will do her level best to try to downplay any Graf success in her analysis, even though it is quite difficult to do with those numbers.
I would also expect that a lot of the 43% non-Graf supporters that she cites as not willing to vote for another candidate if nominated are Hellon people who will not vote for Huffman. A lot of bad blood there before the injunction on Monday.
But, I'm just another squirrel in search of a nut, so I could be wrong.
Huffman apparently has nothing from his eight years in the House to brag about, so he's trying to dredge up Graf criticisms that didn't work that well for Kolbe two years ago. Some of the GOP big shots are going to court Graf and, to a lesser extent, Hellon to cut their losses. They may also take another look at Giffords and Weiss.
It would have been interesting to see how the GOP campaign would have played out had the anti-Graf people coalesced behind one candidate early on in the race. The animus between Hellon and Huffman would not have allowed one of those guys to be that person, although I think Hellon has conducted his campaign with savvy and maturity. However, after Giffords takes this seat in November, local Republicans may recall the pivotal day in this campaign as the one when Ray Carroll decided not to run.
Roger,
I plan on addressing this in a future post, but I don't think that Steve's failure to mail out early voting pamphlets is the root of the problem, it is a symptom of a larger issue.
Keep in mind that 5 weeks ago Steve was polling at around 4%. All of the gain that he has received since that point has come on the back of his television advertising. People swayed to your campaign by television aren't grassroots and likely aren't on any list that Steve can access and exploit.
Imagine having the money to do such a mailing and the resources but no list of individuals you can be certain will vote for you. The last thing you want to do is gamble on someone you are unsure about as they may use your mailing to vote against you. And by the percentages you are seeing, there is a good chance the ballot WILL be used to vote against Steve.
He may pursue this strategy if the numbers start moving his way in the coming weeks, but outside of that I bet he plans on people showing up in the day of the Primary.
Just a bit deeper on this, and then I will back off (I will probably put this on the subscriber side :) ). It really wasn't Huffman's acumen or skills that was able to earn him the endorsements he recieved. The way that I hear it, all he had to do was gain was gain the support of one individual, and the rest fell into place, including the Kolbe endorsement and the edge in fundraising.
If you check the past state congressional voting records, I believe that Graf had a better business rating than Huffman. However, as long as Steve is in the race, a lot of other politicians and business organizations are not likely to cross some of his stronger supporters and move toward Randy, at least not publicly. It really isn't about Huffman.
Again, take it for what it is worth, but my sources on this have proven pretty good.
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