Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Poll Internals

You can get those at Inside Tucson Business

I'll have further comments about these internals later. . .

9 comments:

Kralmajales said...

Interesting analysis.

What would I do if I were Huffman? I would need to find some way to give his supporters a place to hang their hats. Something positive. Otherwise, the business crowd could start deserting him...AND...if they really want someone they can work with for the future, they might start donating across party lines rather than supporting Graf. See what Kenski's numbers said about people crossing the fence to vote if they did not get their preferred candidate.

His going negative will not work and that scandal hurts him too. This all really really could benefit Hellon. Before crossing fences, the monied might re-assess and play both sides of the Republican fence with Hellon.

There are a LOT of undecideds in the polls. BUT...these numbers might get some of the undecided to pile the way of the winner too. People like to be on the winning team.

Last...desperation time...will the candidates who are losing just decide to go completely negative. What they have to lose is angering people for future runs of course. But, if they are truly ambitious. The fur will fly and then look for them to make great hay about any change or tightening in the polls.

Those who are winning have higher expectations now and they will have to continue to work their tails off to deliver.

Framer said...

Roger,

Keep in mind that Kenski worked for the Kolbe campaign, and while she may be a very good pollster, those people hate Graf more than others hate Polka, you can be sure that she will do her level best to try to downplay any Graf success in her analysis, even though it is quite difficult to do with those numbers.

I would also expect that a lot of the 43% non-Graf supporters that she cites as not willing to vote for another candidate if nominated are Hellon people who will not vote for Huffman. A lot of bad blood there before the injunction on Monday.

But, I'm just another squirrel in search of a nut, so I could be wrong.

Anonymous said...

Huffman apparently has nothing from his eight years in the House to brag about, so he's trying to dredge up Graf criticisms that didn't work that well for Kolbe two years ago. Some of the GOP big shots are going to court Graf and, to a lesser extent, Hellon to cut their losses. They may also take another look at Giffords and Weiss.

Rex Scott said...

It would have been interesting to see how the GOP campaign would have played out had the anti-Graf people coalesced behind one candidate early on in the race. The animus between Hellon and Huffman would not have allowed one of those guys to be that person, although I think Hellon has conducted his campaign with savvy and maturity. However, after Giffords takes this seat in November, local Republicans may recall the pivotal day in this campaign as the one when Ray Carroll decided not to run.

Kralmajales said...

I agree with you Rex...completely. Mr. Carroll would have been more than formidable opponent in that race.

As to Huffman, I still think he blew it with the early ballots...unless he is rocking the house now. The very process of contacting, signing people up, asking them to return them, and asking them if they voted...just gets your name out there too.

Framer said...

Roger,

I plan on addressing this in a future post, but I don't think that Steve's failure to mail out early voting pamphlets is the root of the problem, it is a symptom of a larger issue.

Keep in mind that 5 weeks ago Steve was polling at around 4%. All of the gain that he has received since that point has come on the back of his television advertising. People swayed to your campaign by television aren't grassroots and likely aren't on any list that Steve can access and exploit.

Imagine having the money to do such a mailing and the resources but no list of individuals you can be certain will vote for you. The last thing you want to do is gamble on someone you are unsure about as they may use your mailing to vote against you. And by the percentages you are seeing, there is a good chance the ballot WILL be used to vote against Steve.

He may pursue this strategy if the numbers start moving his way in the coming weeks, but outside of that I bet he plans on people showing up in the day of the Primary.

Kralmajales said...

Hi Framer,

You may be right that there are just few supporters, but lots of indications that I have heard said that he did appeal to moderates and business types among republicans...and those worried that Graf can't win.

I would be surprised if what you say is as bad for him as you mentioned. I mean, he does have some big endorsements, and some support in the business community. They have quite a network. I am surprised he did not exploit it or work it...maybe he is now. There have to be some on your side that see Randy Graf as a disaster in the making for the fall...that would move his way (but there is also Hellon).

I do think, barring such a disaster for Graf before the primary, that if Huffman is hoping for people on primary day, he will be in deep trouble.

Framer said...

Just a bit deeper on this, and then I will back off (I will probably put this on the subscriber side :) ). It really wasn't Huffman's acumen or skills that was able to earn him the endorsements he recieved. The way that I hear it, all he had to do was gain was gain the support of one individual, and the rest fell into place, including the Kolbe endorsement and the edge in fundraising.

If you check the past state congressional voting records, I believe that Graf had a better business rating than Huffman. However, as long as Steve is in the race, a lot of other politicians and business organizations are not likely to cross some of his stronger supporters and move toward Randy, at least not publicly. It really isn't about Huffman.

Again, take it for what it is worth, but my sources on this have proven pretty good.

Kralmajales said...

Hi Framer...

I made some big assumptions in what I said. I would definitely trust your sources over my own on this one. VERY interesting.

Thank you!