Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Some Analysis of GOP polling

I'm not even going to touch the Democratic portion of the poll other than say I overestimated the support for Patty Weiss. I guess I need to hang out with more liberal bloggers.

On the GOP side, reference this post I made 5 weeks ago.

Today's poll release shows that the leaked poll results I got then seem to be stunningly accurate. They were:

30% Graff
12% Hellon
4% Huffman

with 54% undecided.

What this would seem to show is that almost a quarter of the previous undecideds have decided and Huffman seems to be picking them up in greater numbers due to his advertising blitz. However, Graf looks to have received a good share of these voters as well with far less money spent and if the current undecideds continue to split at this rate, there are not enough of them for Steve to make the race competitive. Especially as a large percentage of the remaining undecideds aren't likely to show up and vote in the primary if history holds.

Hellon, on the other hand seems to be holding steady with the supporters that he held a month ago. Before the window-peeping flap it could have been argued that Hellon had topped out. It will be interesting to see what the coming week holds for him.

As of now, barring an implosion of some sort, Randy Graf looks to be Republican nominee for CD-8.


sirocco said...

I have to admit, the Repub numbers do look like the match up well with the figures you had last month. I admit I really didn't think Graf would win the nomination, but if the figures have a reasonable MOE then the race is all but over, barring some catastrophic turn of events.

Kralmajales said...

On the Demo side Framer...don't worry about were just hearing a lot of non-sense. You are smart enough not to believe it.

On the Republicans. This is a big big lead for Randy. He now needs to use it to his advantage by getting these results out to every national outlet that he can. EVERY one..Washington Post, Cook Report, HOTLINE, all. He needs money...and this poll shows him to be the frontrunner. He can, if smart, use it to finally convince the RNCC and the RNC folks that he is more than a serious candidate. They may even send him a little green.

As to Huffman. There is something I wanted to say for awhile on here that came out of the last Skinny. If true, it was what I see as the deathknell of Huffman's campaign. Not the adverse news, the ads, the attacks or anything. Read last weeks Skinny at the bottom. About early ballots. I said earlier that Huffman HAD to use his money and support to work early ballots. Moderates will not turn out this year...they won't in large numbers...on your side of the fence. He had a chance to drag them with early votes. The story said that Graf and Hellon had processed more early ballot requests. If that was true...and Huffman has not...THAT...would be the end.

I can't believe I am blogging again.

Kralmajales said...

Here was my post on the Demo numbers if anyone cares...from RRR:

These numbers are huge for a lot of reasons.

When Patty's poll was released back in June, I argued that it was to boost funds and to boost the campaign. Otherwise releasing it would be a mistake.

By declaring yourself the front-runner you place yourself in a position of, where if the race tightens, the other campaign has massive momentum, and the losing campaign is left explaining what the heck went wrong.

See reactions under the RRR post. A number of posts (not friends of Giffords) have already started laying into the Weiss campaign for being inept (not their words...the words are stronger).

In this case, it wasn't a was an out and out reversal...a 28% swing of sorts.

Now...the issue is this. Polls are snapshots....they can change....and the sample size was small. Look for a smart Weiss crew to try to make a lot out of any poll that cuts into the lead. A drop by 8 points in the next one would be sold as "Weiss Surges". The problem, still is, though that she had already declared herself the front-runner before.

The worry for the Giffords campaign is complacency, a lack of activity by people who think it is over, and voters thinking..."well I don't have to vote or contribute...she is winning."

I am sure the campaign knows this and will go a long way toward making sure that does not happen.

Kralmajales said...

Here is the snip from last week's Skinny that I refer to above. What are your thoughts, Framer?

"Which candidates are delivering the most early-ballot requests this year? Rodriguez says it's Gabby Giffords and Patty Weiss on the Democratic side, and Mike Hellon, with a smattering of Randy Graf, on the GOP side. She hadn't seen anything from Republican Steve Huffman yet--which is kinda odd, given that Huffman has led the fundraising race among the GOP candidates. What's he waiting for? Is he saving all that money for the general election? Because he might not make it that far."