Friday, December 08, 2006

Presidential Hopefuls Line Up: Who's ahead, who's not?

The National Journal has released its Insider's Poll results for our presidential hopefuls. Republican picks show McCain leading the pack and Romney gaining ground as George Allen disappears altogether.

1. John McCain
2. Mitt Romney
3. Rudy Giuliani
4. Newt Gingrich
5. Mike Huckabee
6. George Pataki
7. Chuck Hagel
8. Condoleezza Rice
9. Sam Brownback
10. Bill Frist

Democrats see Clinton as the front-runner, although most have concerns about her ability to win the general election, and Mark Warner drops out of the race.
1. Hillary Rodham Clinton
2. Barack Obama
3. John Edwards
4. Al Gore
5. Evan Bayh
6. Tom Vilsack
7. Bill Richardson
8. Joseph Biden
9. Wesley Clark
10. Christopher Dodd

It's too early to get real excited about the rankings—we have already seen major shifting from the last report. But it is significant to note McCain's strong lead, Romney's recent jump to second place, and a perception among Democrats that Hillary is sure to win the nomination despite no clear front-runner at this point.

It would be easy to conceive of a McCain-Hillary Clinton race that would show Hillary overwhelmingly gaining the female vote, but with McCain easily picking up reluctant conservatives as well as party-disaffected independents and some Democrats. I believe such a matchup would result in a solid win for McCain.

Romney's rise certainly has to worry McCain. Despite some polls suggesting some conservatives would reject Romney for religious reasons, most show voters mixed on the question. Again, if the race were between Romney and Hillary, conservatives would struggle to support Hillary. And his success in Massachussetts certainly suggests an ability to draw votes from both conservatives and independents.

Despite Guiliani's ranking, it's hard to imagine him as a front-runner. Somewhat surprisingly, Gingrich, despite his baggage, shows up a strong 4th place. It will be interesting to see if he moves up in the next Insider's Poll.


Framer said...

The clearest path for Romney would be to somehow obtain the support and endorsement of Newt Gingrich. This would even the playing field pretty well being himself and McCain.

Newt staying in the race strongly benefits McCain.

Liza said...

This is so depressing. Hillary is very likely to win the Democratic nomination because of a huge war chest, worldwide name recognition, and campaign expertise that the other hopefuls just can't equal. She would lose the general election just as sure as the sun rises in the east. I guess it depends on who the opponent is, but if it's a man you can almost bet the farm that she'd lose.

Very depressing for Democrats.

Anonymous said...

are you paying the big money for the National Journal? I am impressed