Wednesday, May 30, 2007

No doubt a plot by Randy Pullen. . .

I noticed that my well-intentioned left-of-center friends often like to cite poll numbers that show there to be majority support for a comprehensive immigration plan. Often such polling revolves around the false choice of forcibly deporting 12 million illegal immigrants or giving amnesty. However when the real bill is put into play for perusal, this is what you get.

There’s a simple reason the immigration bill being debated by the U.S. Senate is unpopular with voters—the general public doesn’t believe it will reduce illegal immigration. And, in the minds of most voters, that’s what immigration reform is all about.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that just 16% of American voters believe illegal immigration will decline if the Senate bill is passed. Seventy-four percent (74%) disagree. That figure includes 41% who believe the Senate bill will actually lead to an increase in illegal immigration.

If voters had a chance to improve the legislation, 75% would “make changes to increase border security measures and reduce illegal immigration.” Just 29% would” make it easier for illegal immigrants to stay in the country and eventually become citizens.”

Voters who believe that the current bill will succeed in reducing illegal immigration favor its passage by a 51% to 31% margin. Those who believe the bill will lead to even more illegal immigration oppose its passage by a 70% to 12% margin.

Oh, and here is a special note for our Representative Gabby Giffords:

Unaffiliated voters are now more opposed to the bill than either Republicans or Democrats. Among those who don’t identify with either of the major parties, 22% support the Senate bill while 57% are opposed.

It is quite possible however that the Arizona 8th district leans far to the left of average America, however, so go with your gut.

Again, I don't think the issue is so much about what the bill contains, but a perception that there is an unwillingness to enforce the law, no matter what laws are passed. Until this is fixed, nobody is going to be excited about the wholesale marketing of carrots.

And finally, more signs that Kyl is not going to ride this all the way down:
Some supporters of the bill have tried to suggest it is politically popular by citing polling data for selected features of the bill. However, President Bush yesterday implicitly acknowledged the strong public opposition to the bill by stating that elected officials will need political “courage” to pass the measure. Senator Jon Kyl (R), a major supporter of the legislation, acknowledged in interviews that the lack of support measured by Rasmussen Reports is an accurate reflection of the public mood.
Again, it may be possible that Arizona leans far to the left on this issue, but I would hope that Kyl's situational awareness has improved. He has shown enough in the past that I believe in him.


Sirocco said...

I've seen polling results completely at odds with the Rasmussen results. A lot of it seems to be founded on how the poll questions are framed.

I do agree one area of concern is convincing people any"enforcement" measures will actually, you know, be enforced.

Framer said...

As you know, I am always leary of polling in general. If I had to bet my life on a polster, however, I would lean toward Rasmussen.

Additionally, this is the first poll that I have seen that addresses the bill directly. If you have others, I'd like to see them to compare.

I like the 800 likely voters sample however, rather than the usual Newsweek poll of "adults."

x4mr said...

Will echo Sirocco's observations, and must make a remark that will not surprise you, which is that any Web site that prominently features a banner promoting the Mormon religion as "The Truth Revealed" just paid a credibility tax of substantial proportions.

FYI, "website" is poor orthography. Correct protocol calls for capitalizing Web and making site a second word. Also in the course of normal written discourse, 75% would read 75 percent. You are also supposed to capitalize Internet at all times.

I hear all of this nay-saying going on border leglislation. What's a solution?

Anonymous said...

Yeah...I have to say that Kyl and Giffords both have the guts to put for a real plan that is a compromise. It aint perfect, but it is way better than the status quo and it is something to kick around.

I am not surprised by the polling that Rasmussen finds about the Senate bill. I would, however, like to see the questions. I mean, how many have read the Senate bill, or is this a list of loaded questions, that get at pieces and not the whole thing. It is a complex bill...a lot to love...a lot to hate.

Other polls tend to say this...and emphatically. Most do not want to deport the millions of people who are here now working, most recognize the pragmatic need for a pathway to citizenship, and most see that we need to police the border with more border patrol, but they don't favor our version of the Berlin wall.

Business likes a lot of it, but hates some, liberals like some of it, but hate some, conservatives like some, but hate some of it. In the end, it is easy to find some piece that everyone loves and some piece that everyone hates.

Conservatives are not going to get only "tough on the border" policy without some kind of provision for labor (if this happens you loose the business wing of your party and those who fund your party). I will say the same about liberals too with regard to a bill that would be free of security.

The bill that the President, Kyl, and Giffords seem to support or be working on, is a step forward and isn't the last step in the journey. Lots more negotiating to go.

Anonymous said...

Here is a portion of Rasmussen's analysis that is conveniently left out:

"Still, 65% of voters would be willing to support a compromise including a “very long path to citizenship” provided that “the proposal required the aliens to pay fines and learn English” and that the compromise “would truly reduce the number of illegal aliens entering the country.” The proposal, specifically described as a compromise, was said to include “strict employer penalties for hiring illegal aliens, building a barrier along the Mexican border and other steps to significantly reduce the number of illegal aliens entering the United States.”

Isn't this the crux of the actual bill. The question that says only 26% favor the plan is based on saying "based on what you know about it, do you favor it?" I would wager that most people don't know about it. What the statement above says is that a compromise, when people know about it, is QUITE popular.

Kyl gets does Giffords.