Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Arizona 8th Calls the Race

With 60% of Cochise County reporting 48% to 34% Randy Graf over Steve Huffman.

That should be enough to seal the deal.

14 comments:

BorderPatrol said...

Sure is!!!

Rex Scott said...

Not exactly the blowout you Graf supporters were expecting was it?

Rep. Giffords has a nice ring to it - better get used to it.

Rex Scott said...

Whoever is posting using my name needs to knock it off...especially since I predicted a Graf win LONG before the flashlights and teenagers crashed the party...but never said it would be a "blowout." But, you split the anti-Graf vote and look what you get!

However, I agree that Rep. Giffords sound very cool!

Randall Holdridge said...

I'll say it again:

Headline: Republican Party Commits Suicide in Southern Arizona

BorderPatrol said...

Dream on, amnesty lovers...

Anonymous said...

Graf pulled basically the same level of support he did two years ago. He has a ceiling and he has hit it, that is why the NRCC is out.

Rep. Giffords does sound cool.

Randall Holdridge said...

You're right about the Graf numbers, anonymous, but it's worse than that.

Compare the D turnout to the R turnout, both as a percentage of registrations and in absolute numbers.

The D turnout may have been swollen by independents, but that only makes it worse for Graf.

Perhaps it makes sense that Rs rejected Huffman for principled reasons about the campaign. And it may be that Mike Helon came to the race with too little, too late.

But in a feeding frenzy, the Republican radicals also tossed overboard Sen. Toni Hellon, the ex of the former state party chair, and one of Pima County's most effective legislators, and Rep. Carol Somers, another good team member.

Also rejected was Linda Lovallo, the R candidate picked, advised, and advanced by Christine and Lute Olsen and their friends.

On another thread someone said something about Ds smelling blood in the water. They've been handed the Red Sea.

bob said...

Randall-

You're so full of it. Toni Hellon was beat on shear principle!! Her voting record (which sides more with the Dem values than with Rep values) speaks everything about her. The people have come out and said that they want someone who actually represents their principles. Sorry, Randall, no radicals here.

Everyone was saying that the Dems would be the ones to turn out in this primary and that the Reps would stay home. Boy did that turn out to be wrong. The Republicans DID come out in greater numbers than the Dems contrary to popular opinion. If this trend holds and the general runs right down party lines (which wouldn't be too far off with some Dems crossing over also), then Graf will win. Narrowly, but he'll win. You're the only one shooting people in the feet.

Based on the numbers from tonight, Graf has a chance. Sure it will be a tough race against Giffords. She's a solid candidate with money and even some grassroots support. But Graf has a better chance than anyone has been projecting.

If you quit rolling your dope some time, you might see reality.

sirocco said...

I certainly agree Graf has a great chance. I want to see Giffords win in Nov., but it's not going to be easy. She, and her supporters, will need to work hard over the next eight weeks.

Anonymous said...

Well, if Huffman lost this primary, then the Republicans just lost a seat. Randy Graf is far too conservative to carry district eight. Essentially, the democrats won.

SonoranDesertRat said...

Funny you mention grassroots support - Graf is probably stronger in the grassroots department then Gabby. There are Graf signs in Cochise County that have not come down since early 2004. As hot of an issue as illegal immigration is, Graf stands to steal Democrat votes in the borderland counties. The question will be how he presents himself for the general. I also don't expect the NRCC to disappear, as has been suggested they might. Do not be surprised if you see some devastating attack ads leveled against Gabby in a month-and-a-half or so. That type of thing is the Republicans' calling card on the national level, and it has been effective.

Giffords is in for a much bigger fight than she realizes.

Kralmajales said...

I don't think anyone on the Giffords team that I know will be coasting this fall. In fact, I think she is going to work harder, mobilize a larger team (which was already quite large) and you will find some among your ranks jumping ship to vote and donate to Giffords over Graf.

As to the total voter numbers. What I saw last night spells some serious doom. The district is much more Republican than Demo. Republicans turn out in primaries (traditionally) in much larger numbers. This time it was nearly even with about 1000-2000 more Republican voters turning out? Am I right?

If I am, this means that Demos are much more energized than ever, independents are leaning Demo nationally, and I wonder what is going to happen to the Republican moderate base after Hellon and Huffman have lost?

This will be a battle, but don't think for one moment that we won't be working really really hard for Giffords. I hope he RNC spends money here...it will be money that they won't be able to spend in other hot races around the country.

Kralmajales said...

As for the Huffman campaign, I frankly had nothing against him at all. He appeared moderate and reasonable on the issues. BUT...it might be the worst campaign I have seen in many many years. Over $600-800K gone!!! POOF! He could have worked harder (showed up at events), he could have worked the early ballots very very hard by trying to pick up moderates, he could have tried to outshine Hellon by amassing endorsements and talking about who he was and what he believed in. What most will remember is that he attacked up until the day of the campaign and that he did not ever once truly be himself.

The easy answer to why he lost is that he didn't appeal to the base and another is that that Hellon split moderate votes with him. But I see it more as a very very poorly run campaign. If he had run a campaign like Giffords from Day 1, he could have won this. Now, $600-800K is gone, the party is left with Randy Graf (and Len Munsil), and the Democrats will be welcoming moderates to their party.

sirocco said...

Tucson Citizen is reporting Kolbe has stated he will not endorse Graf for the general.

Thoughts or comments? My $.02 is this will help Graf in the non-Tucson parts of the district and hurt him within the Tucson metro area.