Thursday, September 07, 2006

Further Poll Analysis

Seen a lot of the poll analysis out there in the press and in the blogosphere and I will add in my two cents:

1. Gabby should be picking out her celebratory alcohol of choice . Obviously, there will be a different cross-section of voters that will vote in the primary this year. You do not want to be in the position, however, of depending upon them for a win.

"We know that we're going to live and die by occasional voters."- Patty Weiss campaign

This is especially bad news if you are 17 points down. You wouldn't trust your business to occasional workers, your campaign is no different.

I will bet that the overall margin of victory will be under 17 points, however.

2. Huffman's ads have made some impact. It looks like there have been a few drop-offs from Graf, and looking at the numbers, they have moved to Antenori which is logical. This has to be a disappointment for Hellon who was expecting them to go his way.

Notice, however that these were likely voters polled, not likely primary voters which are an entirely different creature. Just this fact alone could have accounted for the jump for Huffman, outside of him gaining momentum. This is a very lenient measure for Huffman and almost a best case for him under the circumstances, especially as this was before the other candidates started hitting back at him.

The other issue is that many of the Graf and Hellon voters have already voted. Huffman's early voting drive was almost non-existent. He is depending upon people to show up the day of the primary, One vote in the bank is worth two in the bush so we will have to see what happens.

I would bet, however that 24.5 percent will prove to be the high water mark of his campaign.

Finally, not sure that the general election polling is incredibly useful right now, but if it turns out to be accurate, I would wager that that Huffman and the RNCC's just under 1 million has purchased the ten point lead for Gabby. Go team Go!!!!!


Anonymous said...

Keep in mind that the 3-point drop in Graf support is within and margin of error and can also be accounted for by the difference in polling methodologies.

What would have been interesting is a comparison of the candidates' negatives. But either that was not part of the poll or those results were not released.

Anonymous said...


I'm with you on the 1 million NRCC/Huffman shopping spree buying the Gabby win. Not that it directly influences the Dems, but that the independents polled and already disgruntled Republicans have gotten fed up with "the establishment" buying their own man. They're just sick and tired of dirty campaigning, dirty money, and dirty people in power, so they're willing to put someone in that they don't agree as long as that person looks cleaner than the present group. And frankly, right now Republicans look about as dirty as they come.

My bet, however, is that Graf spend a lot of time cleaning up that image once he's nominated. He'd better, anyway. And then once he and Gabby go but heads on issues and not on character, people will feel more inclined to vote for him because they will see both he and Gabby as pretty clean candidates. That will go a long way to winning many of the conservative-leaning independents.

Anonymous said...

"Huffman really really needs Goldwater to attract voters to the polls..."

Goldwater is a Minuteman- like Graf- and campaigning as a border hawk- like Graf. Additionally, Graf and Goldwater have endorsed each other's campaigns. My semi-educated guess is that Goldwater's supporters will lean pretty heavily toward Graf. Huffman's supporters are more likely to vote for Mike Harris or Gary Tupper (who has one up on Steve in the fact that he's still holding onto his nod from the Weekly).

Anonymous said...


Gotta disagree somewhat on your governor factor analysis. I agree with you that the Munsil supporters will support Graf, probably along the lines of 90%.

But here's where I disagree a bit. As much as Munsil wants to paint Goldwater as a moderate, Goldwater is really almost as conservative as Munsil. In fact, as far as I'm aware the only real difference b/w them on social issues is that while Munsil would prefer to limit the abortion option to only when the mother's life is threatened, Goldwater would support abortion also in the cases of rape or incest. But basically they both would prefer other options to abortion.

Where they really differ is Goldwater's strength on the border and some fiscal issues where he has taken stronger stances than Munsil. Because Goldwater is also very conservative, Randy Graf endorsed him. Graf won't endores anyone unless he feels that they are pretty sincere in their conservative values and stances. So I wouldn't count on the Goldwater voters to support Huffman over Graf. Odds are, while the support may not be as complete as from the Munsil people, Goldwater supporters will still probably vote Graf over Huffman.