Monday, October 16, 2006

FEC funding

Sorry about the lag in posting. I've been out doing my part for GOTV.

As Sonoran alliance has already posted, and I hate it when those guys scoop us, the FEC reports show that the expected largesse of Giffords fundraising isn't what many thought.

Gabby has about a $100,000 lead in cash on hand. That is not near the advantage she was hoping to have at this point. However, the bigger question is "where has she blown almost a million dollars?"

Obviously, Gabby has had a strong television presence, and that has been a large benefit to her. However, she has been decidedly beat by the content and quality of the Graf mailers. It is evident that Graf learned from the Huffman contest as this is where Huffman made the biggest impact with his money. It is far more cost effective than television advertising and much more detailed.

The news that I hear also confirms that the early balloting is not trending too much in Gabby's favor, so I do not believe a large portion of her money has went there.

A look at her expenditures seems to show that most of it went to these guys. Who better to tell Gabby what those in CD-8 are looking for in leadership than a firm from Philadelphia.

Had that money been used to "flood the zone" with mailers and further advertising, I believe that Graf would be looking at a larger hill to climb. It would also have been nice to keep that money in the local economy. Do you think GMMB is a union shop?

Expect Michael from Blog for Arizona to break it down with further financial followup. He's the best there is locally for this, even if he is a bit confused with his politics. :)


John said...

You may have been scooped by Sonoran Alliance but as usual you provide a more in depth analysis than they do.

Speaking of Sonoran Alliance they sure are opinionated over there.

Marco Alatorre said...

Regarding the "the expected largesse of Giffords fundraising" consider the following.

Recent Pelosi "walk the precincts" rally with Grijalva is a scam

We have seen the Arizona Democrat Party's ad announcing ultra liberal Nancy Pelosi's recent visit to Tucson. The ad would have us believe that the purpose of this visit is a get out the vote walk and rally for Raul Grijalva.

Given the fact that Grijalva is a second term incumbent (he won by 61% to 35% in 2004 and 59% to 37% in 2002) in a decidedly Democrat district (53% Democrats to 28% Republicans), it would be hard to make a case that Grijalva's 2006 race is tightly contested. In addition, it is doubtful that the ultra left politics of Nancy Pelosi would find much sympathy among Arizona Democrats. Thus, there would seem to be little to gain from a visit by Nancy Pelosi to the 7th District.

So, why would such a busy and influential Democrat Congresswoman, who is in line to become Speaker of the House (if the Democrats can win control of Congress), waste her valuable time coming to Tucson? The answer lies in District 8.

In District 8, we have an open seat race in a district with a slight Republican advantage (43% Republican to 38% Democrat) and the polls show a close race with the momentum favoring Republican Randy Graf, who has reduced the post primary 20% advantage of Democrat Gabrielle Giffords to about 8% in a few weeks. It is clear that this is a truly competitive race.

But how could a Nancy Pelosi visit help Gabrielle Giffords? After all, the Arizona Democrats announced no "walk the precincts parade", rally or other hoopla for Nancy Pelosi on behalf of Gabrielle Giffords (and any such open display of support by Pelosi would probably harm Giffords, who is attempting to portray herself as a moderate).

Not surprisingly, there has been no mention that Pelosi and Giffords even met! The silence is deafening.

Are we to believe that Gabrielle Giffords did not meet with Nancy Pelosi on her Tucson visit? Why haven't we heard about the meeting? Why would Gabrielle Giffords want to conceal the fact that she met with Nancy Pelosi?

The short answer is that Nancy Pelosi most likely came to Tucson to talk to Gabrielle Giffords about money, a last minute flood af money to try to take the election. Campaigns are all about money and endorsements and since an endorsement from Pelosi would likely harm Giffords, a campaign money deal is most likely what the Pelosi visit boils down to.

And why would Nancy Pelosi come to Tucson to commit precious campaign money to Gabrielle Giffords' campaign, unless she was certain that Gabrielle Giffords could be counted on to support her ultra liberal agenda in the US House of Representatives?

The Democrats make a big show of Nancy Pelosi coming to Tucson, ostensibly to support Democrat incumbent Grijalva in District 7, which all the pundits claim is a lock for Grijalva, basically a worthless visit. Then the Democrats are silent about the obvious meeting that must have taken place between Pelosi and Giffords.

The scam is obvious.

Nancy Pelosi most likely came to Tucson to discuss the campaign financing needs of the Gabrielle Giffords campaign and to coordinate the necessary support for this campaign.

It seems that the more we learn about Gabrielle Giffords, the more we are lead to the conclusion that she is attempting to conceal her liberal alliances in an attempt to portray herself as a moderate.

sirocco said...


"The news that I hear also confirms that the early balloting is not trending too much in Gabby's favor, so I do not believe a large portion of her money has went there."

I have heard differently, FWIW, that early balloting is trending fairly significantly in Gabby's favor.

Further, the difference in money is not entirely comprised of what's on hand, but also what each expects to raise -- Giffords has a clear expectation of raising consderably more than Graf in the period from Oct. 1 to the election.

Graf knows this too, of course, which is why he looks to be hoarding funds so he can have enough on hand for a push in the final two weeks.


Not sure where to start, since nearly your entire post is pure speculation ... but lets start here, where you do have some actual data ...

Immediately before the primary, Giffords (and Weiss for that matter) were considered 10 point favorites over Graf.

A number of polls came out afterwards. One of them (Emily's List poll I believe) had Giffords up 20. No one took that seriously.

One of them had Graf within 8.

Most had Giffords in the 12-15 range. Throw out the two outliers, and that's about where things stand. Even with or slightly ahead of where things stood right before the primary.

Given that Graf's numbers remain stagnant between all the polls, I fail to see where he can be gaining any momentum. There's a reason neither party considers this race competitve. Graf needs to get some big help from the debates, which start today.

Perhaps the reason there's been no mention of Giffords and Pelosi meeting is as simple as ... they haven't met? Or is that too easy for you? Until other information comes along, Occam's Razor applies.

Kralmajales said...

Graf is going to loose this race massively. Let him collect all the money he wants from the extremist, corrupt Minutemen and that other organization tied to convicted criminal Ken Lay.

Maybe his racist buddy Russell Pearce can come down here and help him campaign some?