That poll was indeed a Zogby poll, and here is the methodology:
These are telephone surveys of [likely voters] conducted by Zogby International. There were approximately [15] questions asked. Samples are randomly drawn from purchased telephone voter lists. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges within those area codes. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPORÂ’s approved methodologies[1] and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.[2] Weighting by [party, age, race, gender] is used to adjust for non-response. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.
The poll was also made up of 500 respondents as shown elsewhere in the article.
Either Kenski or Zogby are way out of whack at this point as there is an 8 point difference between the two. One has released their internals, and the other. . .
Of course I do not believe that the local polls were fixed, I believed that the random sampling to be a problem with the local organizations limited funding. Do you think that either of the local polls were able to make six calls to a sampled number? Also notice that weighting was done by party, age , race, and gender. Look at the Governor race poll numbers for the discrepancy between local and national polls as well.
All that being said, this is a tremendous deal to the race. Gifford's biggest strength was her inevitability. That is now gone. If local Republicans start believing that their vote for Graf is the only thing that can stave off a Pelosi Chairmanship, they will start coming home, especially now that Graf appears to be closing. A bigger problem for Giffords is what do you attack Graf with that he hasn't already seen and overcome? Giffords on the other hand, is still riding pretty high on an unsullied image. What happens when people start asking for specifics on what she has done to secure the border and lower taxes? I have looked at her record, there just isn't much there to support this, and definitely less that she sponsored or was the driving force behind.
The final good news is that we actually have a race, so as bloggers both to the right and left, this is a good thing.
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4 comments:
What? Do you plan to run again, Huffman?
Randall,
Tell you what, randallholdridge.blogspot.com is available. You can go there and start a conversation about 2008. The rest of us will focus on and actually hold this election.
Of the three polls, this is the one that gives me the best read of their sampling, so I am more inclined to trust the numbers (besides the fact that I like them better. :) ) It also fits well with the last Kenski poll that actually released their internals.
What this tells me is that there are 18% undecided with most of those (around 16%)previously inclined to vote for George Bush. It appears that Gabby is holding on to the Kerry voters and is not picking up Bush voters like we have been led to believe. Will Bush voters vote third party or vote for Giffords and throw the house to the Democrats? This poll seems to indicate that there is some hesitation to do so.
Huffman did quite a bit of damage to Graf with his incessant negative campaigning. However, it doesn't appear that the dissaffected Republicans are moving towards Giffords, in fact it appears that they are searching for a reason to NOT vote for her.
Graf has five weeks and six debates to win them over. Should he appear more reasonable than the characterizations made of him in the primary and in the recent press (which he most certainlt is) he can and will move the undecides his way.
A really interesting question would be where are the 2% of Kerry voters that are not polling for Gabby? Her primary was rather bloodless, so I would assume that all 47% of Kerry voters would be a floor for her.
Also, I haven't heard anything from the left side of the local blogosphere about this poll. We posted the Kenski numbers before Tucson Weekly did, even though we didn't like them. Come on guys, step up.
Randall,
You left out Frank Antenori for 2008. He is one of the few that would actually get some support from the conservative base. And I will concur with 206 that Toni Hellon is probably political history.
The ridiculous overconfidence of the Giffords people as seen above has led to this race becoming more competitive than many incumbents (Taylor NC, Hostettler IN, Sodrel IN and Wilson NM). Graf is going to be fine. The only "Republicans" not voting for him are the Kolbe-Foley crowd, and there's about 5 votes there.
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