Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Finally, a stated methodology.

That poll was indeed a Zogby poll, and here is the methodology:

These are telephone surveys of [likely voters] conducted by Zogby International. There were approximately [15] questions asked. Samples are randomly drawn from purchased telephone voter lists. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges within those area codes. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPORĂ‚’s approved methodologies[1] and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.[2] Weighting by [party, age, race, gender] is used to adjust for non-response. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

The poll was also made up of 500 respondents as shown elsewhere in the article.

Either Kenski or Zogby are way out of whack at this point as there is an 8 point difference between the two. One has released their internals, and the other. . .

Of course I do not believe that the local polls were fixed, I believed that the random sampling to be a problem with the local organizations limited funding. Do you think that either of the local polls were able to make six calls to a sampled number? Also notice that weighting was done by party, age , race, and gender. Look at the Governor race poll numbers for the discrepancy between local and national polls as well.

All that being said, this is a tremendous deal to the race. Gifford's biggest strength was her inevitability. That is now gone. If local Republicans start believing that their vote for Graf is the only thing that can stave off a Pelosi Chairmanship, they will start coming home, especially now that Graf appears to be closing. A bigger problem for Giffords is what do you attack Graf with that he hasn't already seen and overcome? Giffords on the other hand, is still riding pretty high on an unsullied image. What happens when people start asking for specifics on what she has done to secure the border and lower taxes? I have looked at her record, there just isn't much there to support this, and definitely less that she sponsored or was the driving force behind.

The final good news is that we actually have a race, so as bloggers both to the right and left, this is a good thing.

11 comments:

Randall Holdridge said...

The question this poll really raises seems to be the level of support for Messrs. Nolan and Quick, and the number of undecided voters, doesn't it? Mr. Graf remains stuck at the mid-30s level, a base of support everyone acknowledges that he will continue to own until he loses in November, when there will be a lot of scurrying for post position among CD-8 Republicans.

I would really appreciate hearing from readers of this site what and who they think will dominate Republican moves to retake the CD-8 seat in 2008, and how they feel that various Presidential nominess might affect the action.

Anonymous said...

What? Do you plan to run again, Huffman?

Randall Holdridge said...

Don't be silly, anonymous. I'm an easily identifiable person, and a real one. I'm not Huffman. Google me; I'm not hiding behind a screen name.

Framer said...

Randall,

Tell you what, randallholdridge.blogspot.com is available. You can go there and start a conversation about 2008. The rest of us will focus on and actually hold this election.

Of the three polls, this is the one that gives me the best read of their sampling, so I am more inclined to trust the numbers (besides the fact that I like them better. :) ) It also fits well with the last Kenski poll that actually released their internals.

What this tells me is that there are 18% undecided with most of those (around 16%)previously inclined to vote for George Bush. It appears that Gabby is holding on to the Kerry voters and is not picking up Bush voters like we have been led to believe. Will Bush voters vote third party or vote for Giffords and throw the house to the Democrats? This poll seems to indicate that there is some hesitation to do so.

Huffman did quite a bit of damage to Graf with his incessant negative campaigning. However, it doesn't appear that the dissaffected Republicans are moving towards Giffords, in fact it appears that they are searching for a reason to NOT vote for her.

Graf has five weeks and six debates to win them over. Should he appear more reasonable than the characterizations made of him in the primary and in the recent press (which he most certainlt is) he can and will move the undecides his way.

A really interesting question would be where are the 2% of Kerry voters that are not polling for Gabby? Her primary was rather bloodless, so I would assume that all 47% of Kerry voters would be a floor for her.

Also, I haven't heard anything from the left side of the local blogosphere about this poll. We posted the Kenski numbers before Tucson Weekly did, even though we didn't like them. Come on guys, step up.

Randall Holdridge said...

It's hardly surprising that anonymous doesn't want to look forward beyond 2006. There will be a lot of internecine Republican blood-letting between the Graf defeat and the early positioning in CD-8.

What happens in the legislative districts in 2006 will be important. Obviously, Huffman is history.

But both Hellons remain. Paton and Bee are around. Ray Carroll is ambitious. Lute Olsen will be ripe. It seems ridiculous, but maybe Bob Walkup has hopes. Is Peter Likins really retired? Would Jack Jewett launch an assault from the Republican left?

You think I'm asking a pretend question? Statistically, there is 97.5% chance that Ms. Giffords will win -- and in your black hearts you know it.

So, what's a sensible regrouping policy. Talk sense, maybe, for a change.

Randall Holdridge said...

Did I say "black hearts"; sorry, typical English major metaphor. But had I used a more racially sensitive adjective, it would have been bleak indeed.

206isCancer.com said...

Randall-

So, you think that you’re history Stevie Boy? I agree, but it’s nice to hear it from you. Anyway, I loved your line that “Statistically, there is 97.5% chance that Ms. Giffords will win -- and in your black hearts you know it.” Really? And what part of your body did you pull that number out from? I’ll give everybody one guess. You got it! Stevie Boy pulled that 97.5% number right out of his … ok, sorry I forgot that this was a kids show. Anyway, Stevie Boy, it’s much better to have a black heart whatever that means from your Confederate terminology than no heart at all. By the way, while you’re disparaging certain colors, I was just wondering if you have linked your website to David Duke lately? He always looking for more promotion by left-wing bigots like you. Anyway, there is a difference between your left-wing posts and the posts of left-wingers like sirocco, who’s at least fun to debate. I think the difference is that he has a brain and you think out of your… Sorry, kid show again. But really, Steve, it’s time to get over the loss, and get behind the Republican team. You mentioned Ray Carroll. Of course, Ray Carroll would like Randy to lose, and so do some other RINOs. But your stupidity betrays you when you include Toni Hellon, who lost to Al Melvin, as someone who could get the nomination next time around.

I’ll tell you what, Steve, I do believe that it is very possible that Congressman Graf could get a challenge from within his own Party when he runs for his first reelection. This would be a silly campaign to mount, since Congressman Graf will be a folk hero by then and will fan sections wherever he goes with cool signs like “GRAF-ITES UNITE” and other catchy slogans. The only one who would be able to mount a credible campaign in 2008 against sitting Congressman would be Jim Click himself. He has nearly unlimited resources and all. But I don’t think that he wants to be demoted from the job of “I own Tucson” to being just a Congressman. But Click plays to win, so if we thought that this Primary was bloody, just imagine how bloody a sitting Congressman Graf v. Jim Click primary would be. Anyway, that’s too far away, but since you’re talking about the future Stevie Boy, what do you think that they are going to do with Randy’s District after the 2010 Census? I mean, Arizona should get 2 or maybe even 3 more seats in the House, but Randy will likely be the newest member of the Congressional Delegation, and this could mean that if anybody gets drawn out of their district, it would be Congressman Graf.

John said...

Randall,

You left out Frank Antenori for 2008. He is one of the few that would actually get some support from the conservative base. And I will concur with 206 that Toni Hellon is probably political history.

Randall Holdridge said...

KMBlue = 206isCancer,

I appreciate the fact that you're still spewing venom, though I notice that you've at least now recognized that Graf is a loser, and that other forces are already gathering for the CD-8 race in 2008.

Your riff on Jim Click makes me wonder why you didn't pick up on my earlier suggestion of Lute Olsen. I agree that Click will never run for public office, but he owns Lute and the UA Athletic Dept.

So, maybe not Toni Hellon. What about Mike, former national committeeman who stood in the primary between Graf and Huffman?

You acknowledge that Ray Carroll is/has been positioning himself, and certainly has done all this cycle he can to sink Graf; my view, the Chicago thing wears badly across the district, and also Ray doesn't really know what he thinks about issues, so he's too easy on them.

That you blow off candidates from the education/science/health care arena -- Likins and Jewett -- interests me; they have vast connections, substantial knowledge and expertise, and their areas of interest will be paramount in 2008, even if the Iraq war is then still dragging out to an in glorious conclusion. Each might be just as likely to attract Click/Diamond support as Lute Olsen.

The general picture of this perfectly sensible speculation includes not one Graf type fundamentalist candidate for CD-8.

Either Giffords will be re-elected in 2008, or we'll have a new Kolbe/McNulty/Udall type congressman. All in all, CD-8 is populated by a decent, clear-minded, tolerant, and well-educated group of people.

Aren't we lucky!

Randall Holdridge said...

John,

Sorry, I caught your comment about Frank Antenori after my last post. I paid attention to his primary campaign, and I see that he has a certain kind of charisma, a clear view of foreign policy, but a narrow base of knowledge on issues. He's also not well connected in the party, and his willingness to pitch in so furiously on the Graf campaign is a miscalculation. I'm sure he's a good man, but it's not going to work out.

FrankieValli said...

The ridiculous overconfidence of the Giffords people as seen above has led to this race becoming more competitive than many incumbents (Taylor NC, Hostettler IN, Sodrel IN and Wilson NM). Graf is going to be fine. The only "Republicans" not voting for him are the Kolbe-Foley crowd, and there's about 5 votes there.