Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Tentative Primary Schedule

In April, we will see the early figures for Presidential candidate fundraising. A lot has been made of the absolute amount of hoarding that is going to take place in the next year. The following should explain why that money is going to be necessary.

Here is a possible if not probable (states are currently considering these moves) schedule of Presidential primaries for the Republican party:

January 8— New Hampshire Primary

January 14— Iowa Caucus

January 29— South Carolina Primary

February 5― Arizona Primary
Alabama Primary
California Primary
New York Primary
New Jersey Primary
North Carolina Primary
Illinois Primary
Florida Primary
Utah Primary
West Virginia Primary
Michigan Primary
Oklahoma Primary
Texas Primary
Missouri Primary
Minnesota Primary
Delaware Primary

February 7— Nevada Caucus (Republicans)

February 5th looks to be Judgment Day. This thing will be decided then. Look for our Republican brethren in Nevada to move their primary date up to match the Democratic Caucus date, but it will be of little notice. This is the new reality and I believe that there are very few in either the running of the campaigns or the reporting of them who know how to approach it.

It means that you will not be able to ride an early victory or strong showing in either Iowa or New Hampshire to get the fundraising you will need to compete in later states. This structure would have doomed a Bill Clinton or even perhaps a John Kerry. If you don't have a large amount of funds to purchase airtime prior to January, you will be running blind on February 5th and are highly unlikely to compete.

I'll try to do some individual analysis for what this means for the campaigns of the candidates that our readers are following, but suffice it to say that if you do not see at least 10 million after a candidates name when the April reporting comes out, it is highly likely that you can just draw a red line across their name in your bracket.

2 comments:

Kralmajales said...

I completely agree with your analysis. There will be only a very little time to build momentum out of Iowa and New Hampshire. Only 2 or 3 will reasonably make it to NH. After that, the field will quickly cut and will cut fast. Money will be the key and of course who can raise the most party "insider" support.

South Carolina, however, will have a major role yet again as the "gateway to the south". I think you will find that McCain has set a "firewall" there in case he comes up short in Iowa or NH. Beware of that everyone. It killed him last time, but he has courted Lindsay Graham and I bet has even promised him a spot on the ticket if he can deliver SC.

A big prediction, but mark it in case I get this one right.

Anonymous said...

Working the Jeb Bush angle becomes even more important....

MIAMI, March 22 — Florida could move its presidential primary to as early as Jan. 29 — a week before the “Super-Duper Tuesday” date of Feb. 5 that California set this month and that New York, Texas and a flurry of other states are eying — after the State House of Representatives approved the change this week. Gov. Charlie Crist said Thursday that the State Senate should follow suit.