Monday, November 06, 2006

GOTV effort and Predictions

Sorry about the lack of posts. I believe that most of the people reading have already decided, so I have been out working among our future readers :)

Just to bring us up to date, tomorrow is obviously the election. At this point I am ready to concede the polls to the Democrats. Congratulations to Democrats on their fourth such victory in a row. It is perfectly evident that Republicans are just not built to compete in this arena and changes will have to be made in order to show well in future polls.

The actual election is, as always, a different matter, and the Republicans seem to play this game a little better.

Here is my take on the national scene:

1. Any race where the polling is within one or two points in the polling will go to the Republicans at a near 80% clip. This, however, will not apply to races in New Jersey or Maryland.

2. Corker beats Ford, however, this will not be called right away.

3. Allen beats Webb. This will not be as close as many are expecting.

4. Republicans do not pick up either New Jersey or Maryland. We are dreaming that we have a chance there.

5. In an upset special, Burns retains his seat. This has been marked as a Democrat win for some time now. I know Montana pretty well, and know that Tester is not an easy sell for the overall populace. Someday the influx of Californians may turn Montana completely blue, but I do not believe that time is here quite yet.

6. Chafee defeats Whitehouse. Behold the awesome power of the GOP GOTV. Republicans are excited right up to the point where Chafee actually starts voting again.

7. Santorum loses by 6%

8. Talent wins, although there will be more shenanigans in St. Louis.

9. Brown wins, Ohio suffers buyers remorse soon after.

10. Republicans retain both the Foley and the Delay seats, due mainly to their amazing ability to research and follow directions.

11. Republicans lose 16 seats, costing them the House by the slimmest of margins. 40% chance that one or more Democrats are lured across the aisle with promises of chairmanships.

12. The Graf race is closer than many expect. Even if he does not win, the result will be close enough that Matt Salmon will be in hot water for actively supporting Huffman and his negative campaigning.

13. Hayworth and Kyl win going away.

14. None of the positive Republican developments will be a result of the intervention of Karl Rove.

15. Liberal Democrats will find that not all Democrats running for the house are only pretending to be moderates. Many of them actually will be moderates and vote in ways sure to infuriate liberals.

16. Either John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, or Mitt Romney will defeat Hillary Clinton in 2008 with Coattails.

Fire away, and do not forget to vote.

12 comments:

cc burro said...

I'll be surprised if ANY of those four win the nominations of their respective parties.

Framer said...

Hillary is a lock. The withdrawl of Warner was a confirmation of this. He sees the train wreck coming and will gladly take his chances in 2012. There is simply no one with her connections or money.

On the Republican side, i have crossed out Frist, Allen, Newt, Jeb Bush, and Brownback. Perhaps Duncan Hunter, but I don't see where he gets his funding from. Everyone else would need to do something miraculous. Campaigning starts in about eight months. Not a lot of time to get discovered.

McCain and Romney are collecting the campaign "players" like Baseball Cards. Surprisingly it doesn't appear that Rudy is doing much now, but he is the only one who could come in late and be strong.

Who else do you think could compete on either side?

sirocco said...

Powell would win if he opted to run. No idea if he's even considering it.

Kudo's for posting a series of predictions ... it will be interesting to come back tomorrow and check-off which ones are right and which ones are not.

My leading candidate for incorrect is #6 (Whitehouse will win).

Also, I think Republican GOTV effects may be over-rated, particularly this year. We'll have to see.

Kralmajales said...

I think Whitehouse will win, I think Allen will lose, I think Corker will win in a slim, close race, I think Burns is toast, I think DeWine and Talent are toast as well. I honestly think that the Republicans will loose the house and Senate tonight. I think the Republicans will lose about 30 seats in the House and will lose the Senate by 1 seat.

I don't think under any circumstances that the Delay and Foley seats will remain Republican. It is a difficult thing to write in a candidate and it is a difficult thing remember late entries. They are also stained massively.

Despite the turnout machine of republicans, I think that this year independents and democrats are going to break democrat. I also think the gender gap is back in a big way. I also think any gains with Hispanics are gone.

I finally think that most polls will not adequately capture the anger of voters and the size of turnout for Democrats. Any race that is within the margin of error could easily go democrat with any of the reasons I state above. But the biggest issue is that most polls are based on "likely midterm voters"...a measure of the past. Polls in 94 and during Watergate did not adequately capture "the perfect storm."

I think we will see the effects of this storm today.

Oh..and before the voting ends, I want to say "Good luck Framer and The Committee". Thanks for your predictions and for all the fun on here the last few weeks. Sincerely.

Framer said...

Roger,

I would suspect that you are in for a longer night than us Republicans if those are your expectations.

Seriously, if people are actually taking the polling data as reality, they will be dissapointed. Polls are tools used to indicate possible trends, but they are not reality. In many cases they will not even be close. See 2000, 2002, 2004, etc.

The sad part is that after the polls are wrong, everyone will return to taking them as gospel in 2008.

I'll bet the Corker Race is closer than the Chafee race, but Republicans win both. Unfortunately, if Chafee decides the Senate, I believe there is an even chance he will go Jeffords.

Duke the Dog said...

I can't wait to see the run on Prozac come Wednesday and the lawsuits that result when once again the polls were wrong and the GOP pulls off a come from behind victory.

Those damn Diebold machines and the secret Karl Rove manipulation of the pollsters to create the perception of an easy Dem victory that actually leads to mass suppression of the Democrat vote when a lot of lazy Democrats say, "Ah, the hell with voting, we're gonna win anyway, my one vote won't make a difference, it's going to be a landslide anyway."


As a result, the GOP will lose only 13 seats in the House barely maintaining a majority and lose only 1 seat in the Senate.

I see a GOP "Steele" of the MD Senate seat as the big upset of the evening.

The amount of money spent on the Delay and Foley seats also leads me to believe that the voters have been educated enough to handle the write in process and the vote for Foley is actually a vote for his replacement concept.

Since both districts are heavily Republican, This is more than feasible.

I just can't wait to see all of the alligator tears on Wednesday when the Dems fall short.

Either way the GOP wins. If the predictions hold true and the Dems take the House, there will be some serious house cleaning of those in the GOP leadership that led the party astray from fiscal conservatism, smaller government and less spending. You will see a removal of all of the Neo-Con "Compassionate Conservative" crap and a resurgence of the Reagan Republicans which means an easy retake of the House in '08 after the Dems totally go postal with their new found power. It also means an easy walk for the GOP Presidential candidate after al-Qaeda attacks the U.S. for a second time in early '07.

Nostradamus called it back in the 16th century anyway; I saw it on the discovery channel last week.

Kralmajales said...

My predictions, already, are looking good folks. I think I might have called this...based on what I am seeing in early returns.

Allen is losing...slightly. Ann Northrup of KY is losing..wasn't expected to be a pickup for dems. Also, look at those three Indiana House races...very close to Demo.

The exit polls (often wrong I admit) are showing voters voting on national not local issues.

Long night Framer...long night.

Framer said...

Good Call Roger.

I'm not giving up on Flathead county in Montana, however :)

Kralmajales said...

Thank you...not giving up on Tester. I may get my 30+ in the house and a Senate to boot.

I need to change my line of work! (smile)

Liza said...

dukethedog,
I hope that you are not a stock broker or financial planner or anything that requires some level of insight into the future.

Liza said...

Well, I guess the Senate hinges on a likely recount in Virginia according to CNN. Here we have an incumbent senator who directs a racial slur at a guy holding a video camera. Too dumb to be a senator but probably has a very promising career on some wingnut talk radio show.

Isn't it interesting that a Republican might ask for a recount?

Anonymous said...

ummm your predictions are totally lame. How is that humble pie tasting? So let's see of your 16 predictions, you completely tanked on 10 of them (let's count the Foley/Delay call as one), 3 are unproveable or future suppositions, but hey you got Corker right -- tough call there as the trendlines were headed south for Ford the minute the "Psst Harold" ad went up (proud moment there for the GOP) -- and Brown. Really bloviating does not substitute for real analysis . . .