Sorry about the lack of posts. I believe that most of the people reading have already decided, so I have been out working among our future readers :)
Just to bring us up to date, tomorrow is obviously the election. At this point I am ready to concede the polls to the Democrats. Congratulations to Democrats on their fourth such victory in a row. It is perfectly evident that Republicans are just not built to compete in this arena and changes will have to be made in order to show well in future polls.
The actual election is, as always, a different matter, and the Republicans seem to play this game a little better.
Here is my take on the national scene:
1. Any race where the polling is within one or two points in the polling will go to the Republicans at a near 80% clip. This, however, will not apply to races in New Jersey or Maryland.
2. Corker beats Ford, however, this will not be called right away.
3. Allen beats Webb. This will not be as close as many are expecting.
4. Republicans do not pick up either New Jersey or Maryland. We are dreaming that we have a chance there.
5. In an upset special, Burns retains his seat. This has been marked as a Democrat win for some time now. I know Montana pretty well, and know that Tester is not an easy sell for the overall populace. Someday the influx of Californians may turn Montana completely blue, but I do not believe that time is here quite yet.
6. Chafee defeats Whitehouse. Behold the awesome power of the GOP GOTV. Republicans are excited right up to the point where Chafee actually starts voting again.
7. Santorum loses by 6%
8. Talent wins, although there will be more shenanigans in St. Louis.
9. Brown wins, Ohio suffers buyers remorse soon after.
10. Republicans retain both the Foley and the Delay seats, due mainly to their amazing ability to research and follow directions.
11. Republicans lose 16 seats, costing them the House by the slimmest of margins. 40% chance that one or more Democrats are lured across the aisle with promises of chairmanships.
12. The Graf race is closer than many expect. Even if he does not win, the result will be close enough that Matt Salmon will be in hot water for actively supporting Huffman and his negative campaigning.
13. Hayworth and Kyl win going away.
14. None of the positive Republican developments will be a result of the intervention of Karl Rove.
15. Liberal Democrats will find that not all Democrats running for the house are only pretending to be moderates. Many of them actually will be moderates and vote in ways sure to infuriate liberals.
16. Either John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, or Mitt Romney will defeat Hillary Clinton in 2008 with Coattails.
Fire away, and do not forget to vote.
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7 comments:
Hillary is a lock. The withdrawl of Warner was a confirmation of this. He sees the train wreck coming and will gladly take his chances in 2012. There is simply no one with her connections or money.
On the Republican side, i have crossed out Frist, Allen, Newt, Jeb Bush, and Brownback. Perhaps Duncan Hunter, but I don't see where he gets his funding from. Everyone else would need to do something miraculous. Campaigning starts in about eight months. Not a lot of time to get discovered.
McCain and Romney are collecting the campaign "players" like Baseball Cards. Surprisingly it doesn't appear that Rudy is doing much now, but he is the only one who could come in late and be strong.
Who else do you think could compete on either side?
Roger,
I would suspect that you are in for a longer night than us Republicans if those are your expectations.
Seriously, if people are actually taking the polling data as reality, they will be dissapointed. Polls are tools used to indicate possible trends, but they are not reality. In many cases they will not even be close. See 2000, 2002, 2004, etc.
The sad part is that after the polls are wrong, everyone will return to taking them as gospel in 2008.
I'll bet the Corker Race is closer than the Chafee race, but Republicans win both. Unfortunately, if Chafee decides the Senate, I believe there is an even chance he will go Jeffords.
I can't wait to see the run on Prozac come Wednesday and the lawsuits that result when once again the polls were wrong and the GOP pulls off a come from behind victory.
Those damn Diebold machines and the secret Karl Rove manipulation of the pollsters to create the perception of an easy Dem victory that actually leads to mass suppression of the Democrat vote when a lot of lazy Democrats say, "Ah, the hell with voting, we're gonna win anyway, my one vote won't make a difference, it's going to be a landslide anyway."
As a result, the GOP will lose only 13 seats in the House barely maintaining a majority and lose only 1 seat in the Senate.
I see a GOP "Steele" of the MD Senate seat as the big upset of the evening.
The amount of money spent on the Delay and Foley seats also leads me to believe that the voters have been educated enough to handle the write in process and the vote for Foley is actually a vote for his replacement concept.
Since both districts are heavily Republican, This is more than feasible.
I just can't wait to see all of the alligator tears on Wednesday when the Dems fall short.
Either way the GOP wins. If the predictions hold true and the Dems take the House, there will be some serious house cleaning of those in the GOP leadership that led the party astray from fiscal conservatism, smaller government and less spending. You will see a removal of all of the Neo-Con "Compassionate Conservative" crap and a resurgence of the Reagan Republicans which means an easy retake of the House in '08 after the Dems totally go postal with their new found power. It also means an easy walk for the GOP Presidential candidate after al-Qaeda attacks the U.S. for a second time in early '07.
Nostradamus called it back in the 16th century anyway; I saw it on the discovery channel last week.
Good Call Roger.
I'm not giving up on Flathead county in Montana, however :)
dukethedog,
I hope that you are not a stock broker or financial planner or anything that requires some level of insight into the future.
Well, I guess the Senate hinges on a likely recount in Virginia according to CNN. Here we have an incumbent senator who directs a racial slur at a guy holding a video camera. Too dumb to be a senator but probably has a very promising career on some wingnut talk radio show.
Isn't it interesting that a Republican might ask for a recount?
ummm your predictions are totally lame. How is that humble pie tasting? So let's see of your 16 predictions, you completely tanked on 10 of them (let's count the Foley/Delay call as one), 3 are unproveable or future suppositions, but hey you got Corker right -- tough call there as the trendlines were headed south for Ford the minute the "Psst Harold" ad went up (proud moment there for the GOP) -- and Brown. Really bloviating does not substitute for real analysis . . .
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