When the Toll Comes Due

So what happens when Gabby Gifford's largest contributor, Emily's List, comes a callin' wanting her super delegate vote for to be cast for Clinton?

It appears that they're just not that into Obamamania.

And should Gabby defy them and move toward Obama, will Emily's List look toward supporting other women candidates with like minded goals instead?

I would not suspect Giffords to be an early endorser. Why start with the courage now?

Press coverage of Sen. Bee

Some commentators have suggested that staying in the Legislature had some drawbacks for Senator Bee. Most people focused on the difficulty in navigating the pending budget crisis. Now it looks like the press is noticing that he is campaigning while in office. Giffords is also campaigning while staying in her position but don’t hold your breath waiting for the newspaper story asking, “Where’s Gabby?”

Selected, not Elected

I really like most of my Democrat blogger counterparts. So I am not sure that it with a slight bit of humor or sadness for them as I watch them get excited about the results of their primary, pulling for Obama.

You see, the thing is, that the Democratic Presidential Primary system is set up in such a way as to guarantee that in a close, or even relatively close election, the party elite will determine who the nominee is.

In the primary, there are no Winner Take All states or ways for a candidate to have a resounding victory and get a lot of separation. Indeed in true "everybody is equal, nobody is special" style, the system almost seems rigged to guarantee a close popular primary result. It makes for an exciting race right?

Well, no actually. Let me introduce you to Mr. Super Delegate. These are the Democrats who's votes count a lot more than the others. Just to make it clear, you need 2,025 delegates to clinch, but there are 796 available Super Delegates. That is quite a bit of popular-vote-overcoming slush available.

This site has the rule that stipulates who is a "super delegate:"

UNPLEDGED AND PLEDGED PARTY LEADERS AND ELECTED OFFICIAL DELEGATES

1. The procedure to be used for certifying unpledged party leader and elected official delegates is as follows:

Not later than March 1, 2008, the Secretary of the Democratic National Committee shall officially confirm to each State Democratic Chair the names of the following unpledged delegates who legally reside in their respective state and who shall be recognized as part of their state’s delegation unless any such member has publicly expressed support for the election of, or has endorsed, a presidential candidate of another political party;

1. The individuals recognized as members of the DNC (as set forth in Article Three, Sections 2 and 3 of the Charter of the Democratic Party of the United States); and,

2. The Democratic President and the Democratic Vice President of the United States, if applicable; and,

3. All Democratic members of the United States House of Representatives and all Democratic members of the United States Senate; and,

4. The Democratic Governor, if applicable; and,

5. All former Democratic Presidents, all former Democratic Vice Presidents, all former Democratic Leaders of the U.S. Senate, all former Democratic Speakers of the U.S. House of Representatives and Democratic Minority Leaders, as applicable, and all former Chairs of the Democratic National Committee.

So basically a list of "Who's who" among party INSIDERS.

Indeed according to this same site, Clinton already holds a lead among committed super delegates at a 2-1 clip. To even make things close, Obama would have to pick up the remaining insiders at a 65% to 35% clip.

I don't think that is too likely. Welcome nominee Clinton

Romney Out, Huckabee Stays In

Romney has officially thrown in the towel according to Associated Press. Huckabee vowed to stay in it. His role as the spoiler is over, so it's hard to understand what he has to gain by staying in. Clearly, remaining delegates will shift en masse to McCain leaving Huckabee even farther behind.

Romney cited as a reason for his decision the need for McCain to be able to launch his bid for the general election as soon as possible.

McCain has a difficult, but necessary, task in reaching out to Romney and Huckabee supporters. Social conservatives who watched fellow Republicans refuse to endorse, or even openly oppose, conservative candidates and causes, struggle to respond when those same Republicans demand obeisance to a candidate who they feel denigrated them. Yet, without the unity of the party behind him, McCain will have a difficult time overcoming the combined Obama/Clinton force that will come out of the Democrat Party's nomination. It won't do to take his delegates and dismiss the other half of the party as "fringe." He needs to reach out just as Reagan reached out and made the party stronger.

Senator McCain's speech to CPAC was a good beginning. Now, he needs to follow up with a massive unification campaign to reassure the rest of the party that they are included in his vision.

Locally, it's possible that Republican congressional candidates will get a bit of a lift from the McCain nomination. State legislative candidates will still have to stand on their own, however.

Poll Station Observations

So, I spent a great deal of time at the polls this morning gathering signatures, and here are my offhand observations.

1. Pretty big Democratic turnout in general. Not sure if this is good for Obama or Clinton, but I would guess Obama.

2. Really low Republican turnout in big McCain areas and really heavy turnout in likely Romney areas. If I were a gambling man, I might not bet on Romney to win, but I would sure bet against the polling spread.

3. My volunteers seem to outnumber all of the other volunteers in the admittedly Republican leaning districts in 26. Al Melvin's volunteers were a close second, followed by Pete Hershberger not far behind that. I didn't see anything in the way of Tim Bee or Gabby Giffords surrogates.

4. Barbara Lawall employee Ken Janes was seen gathering signatures for Lawall at a polling station on Orange Grove. It is my understanding that Janes is on salary, and that gathering signatures on the public dime probably doesn't fall under his job description.

5. A big thank you to all of those out there gathering signatures for my campaign. With the initial count it appears that we may have more than enough to qualify and have a pretty decent cushion.

Democrats Out In Force

All indications are that Democrats are turning out in large numbers today. Traditional Republican strongholds in Oro Valley are reporting Democrats outnumbering Republicans by 3 to 1 in some precincts. No doubt, some of that is a result of the passion Democrats have for their candidates. Hillary is a love-her-or-hate-her candidate that brings people out either way. Many voters are reporting they changed their status from independent to Democrat so they could vote for Obama and Obama sign holders have been spotted at some polling places.It will be interesting to learn who at the end of the day was the recipient of the most passion.

On the Republican side, a cold morning, closed roads, low passion, and resulting low turnout probably bodes well for Romney and not so well for McCain. Again, time will tell.

The large numbers of voters showing up at the polls Tedski reported over at RR&R could be the result of high turnout, but may be the result of fewer polling places since many polling places are taking voters for two precincts. A high number of voters were said to have voted early, but that may apply mostly to the Dove Mountain and Sun City crowds.

Interestingly, Tedski reported that he was picked out of the crowd as a Republican. Was it his cardigan sweater, or the truck he was driving? :)

Stranger Than Fiction: McCain vs. GOP

McCain looks to pick up Arizona, according to the polls, but Romney has a strong following and won't let McCain walk away with it without a fight. Furthermore, much of the recent polling has taken on the accuracy of weather forecasting. Obviously, neither candidate sees Arizona as a critical state as far as the number of available delegates, but McCain can't afford to lose face in his home state. So the Senator is working hard to get party leaders to break their neutrality pledges and line up behind him hoping Republican voters will follow suit. So far, his strategy appears to be paying off to a limited degree. But all is not gold in Arizona.

Currently, Republicans and independents represent a strange mix when it comes to McCain. Many independents see McCain as the anti-partisan maverick needed to shake things up and get something done in Washington while some are disgruntled Republicans who see McCain as an opportunist untrue to many GOP principles. Republicans, likewise, are fairly conflicted. Some boo loudly at state conventions when McCain's name is read while others demand loyalty to the long-term Arizona senator who spent time in a POW camp during his military service.

While McCain will pick up many independents and loyal party Republicans, his challenge is to persuade less-convinced Republican activists and party leaders that they should ignore his organized funding boycott of the state party and not reciprocate by boycotting his run for the nomination. Loud criticism of his support for amnesty the past couple of years has led McCain to turn up his nose and walk the other way whenever he's had an opportunity to help the party encouraging his largest supporters to do likewise. Now he needs state party leaders and GOP voters to solidify a victory in the state. With no sign of an olive branch forthcoming, it looks like McCain is intent on digging in and holding his position. How much of an effect this will have on his success in the state remains to be seen. He may win the state, as expected, but even a narrow win would communicate weak support out of his home state—something that could hurt him in the long run if the contest drags on past Super Tuesday.

Confucius say he who poke stick in eye of friend, lose friend, but he who extend arm, lose enemy.

If ever there was a time for Senator McCain to lay down the stick, this would be it. It can only help him on Super Tuesday.

Hershberger Challenges Melvin for Senate

Representative Hershberger, finishing his last session as a term-limited Representative, has forced a Republican primary in LD26 by challenging returning candidate Al Melvin for state Senate.

In 2006, Melvin soundly upset Senator Toni Hellon in the primary only to lose by a few hundred votes to Democrat Charlene Pesquiera in the general election. After the election, Al Melvin immediately declared himself a candidate for 2008 and has been the sole Republican declared until now.

Pete Hershberger, bound by the resign-to-run law, kept silent about his desire to fight for a seat in the Senate. Now he's looking to bump Melvin out of the race so he can extend his time in the legislature, an action long anticipated by many.

This will prove to be the most clearly divided race in Southern Arizona with Pete, known to campaign with Democrats, in one corner, and Al, the staunch party conservative, in the other.

This race will be anything but boring.

Slicing and Dicing Florida

Here is some interesting data from the Florida primary.

Mitt lost Florida in two counties where McCain trounced him: Broward and Miami-Dade. Do these counties ring a bell?
In Broward, McCain had 40,658, Romney had 23,921, and Giuliani 18,662 (third place).
In Miami-Dade, McCain had a whopping 75,516, Romney had 23,936, and Giuliani 40,251 (a strong second place).

It appears that instead of Giuliani supporters taking votes from McCain, they ended up taking them from Romney. It will be interesting to see how this plays out on Feb. 5.

Have you been listening to Jon Justice at 104.1 FM / The Truth this week? Listen in from 6am to 9am, Monday through Friday. He has come up with a great idea!

WHAT IF AMERICA TOOK THE TAX REBATE STIMULUS MONEY AND USED IT TO SECURE THE U.S. MEXICO BORDER?

"This started on Jan 24th 2008 while I was printing the story of President Bush and Congress agreeing on a stimulus package. Being married with 2 boys I could certainly use the $1800.00 that I will be getting this summer. But then I thought "what if"? What if enough people decided to pledge some if not all their Tax Rebate money to secure the US Mexico Border? What if we sent a message back to our government that said "Since you failed to secure our border, we will do it for you". It would take a one time cost of roughly 3 billion dollars to put the entire fence up. Our government is going to hand the tax payers 150 Billion! A fraction of that could save us billions in Illegal Immigration costs for years to come."

For more information, cut and paste this link to your web browser:

http://www.1041thetruth.com/whatif/tabid/4702/default.aspx

I like thinking like this.

Sharon Bronson in the Crosshairs

Sonoran Alliance reported that Sharon Bronson might be getting a challenger in the Democrat primary. It looks like Sharon is being fired upon from all sides. On the Republican side, Barney Brenner is rumored to be exploring the possibility of taking out Bronson as well.

The Race Is On!

In Florida, as they come out of the gate it's Romney and McCain running neck and neck at 33.6%. Giuliani, barely out of the chute holds 14.8%. Huckabee is holding on to fourth place by half a length at 13.1%.

Looks like a nail biter to me!

Barack and Janet?

It's been long rumored that Governor Janet has been eyeing Senator John's senate seat, but now her gaze has shifted. Insiders in the state capitol say Napolitano's heavy push for all-day kindergarten to prepare kids for school, and now her push for expansive early childhood education programs to prepare kids for all-day kindergarten to prepare kids for school has a purpose beyond pushing the state debt to $2 billion. Janet wants to look good to Barack Obama who she hopes will pick her as a running mate provided he takes all the marbles for the Democrats. Now, the Obama endorsement makes a bit more sense.

Of course, why would Obama pick a governor from an obscure western state with few electoral votes when he could look almost anywhere else and get a better return for his pick? No question, it's a long shot.

So don't start looking for those Obama-Napolitano in '08 bumper stickers, yet. But wouldn't it be interesting to see McCain and Napolitano duking it out on opposite teams?

AZ Star moves Portillo to Jazz Blog

Back on January 17th Greg at Espresso Pundit reported that Ernesto Portillo Jr. had lost his column in the Arizona Daily Star. In Sunday’s Star Debbie Kornmiller confirms Greg’s report and elaborates:

Rather than write three opinion columns a week, Portillo will write a news column on Sundays with a focus on Tucson's culture and people. He also will start an Internet blog on Latin jazz. The blog will allow Portillo, who hosts a weekly radio show on KXCI-FM, to share his expertise and passion on the topic with readers. In addition to that, Portillo will write news stories about Tucson's ethnic communities. And he will continue his public duties as a speaker and master of ceremonies at public events.

No mention yet if Portillo will continue to appear on the Friday edition of Arizona Illustrated.

The Democrat Caste System for Delegates

Here's how the Democrats select delegates:
"Delegates and Alternates must be equally divided between men and women.
The delegate selection process is open to all Democrats who are registered voters. The SC Democratic Party encourages participation by members of groups that are underrepresented in party affairs, including African Americans, Hispanics, ethnics, youth, those over 65, gay men and lesbians, persons with physical disabilities, and persons of low and moderate income.
Our goal is to elect a delegation that is at least 50% African American, as well as at least 3 GLBT delegates and 5 who are under 30. The election of At-Large delegates may be used to reach this goal."

The party of equal opportunity selects by race, sexual practice and age. Why not simply select the best people?

Pesquiera Fined for Campaign Violation

Charlene Pesquiera, State Senator from LD26, was hit with a $1000 fine for failing to report campaign donations as a non-Clean Elections candidate in 2006. As the candidate who had never bothered to register to vote, Charlene was coaxed into running with no experience but still managed to win by a few hundred votes. Being new to the process, she may not have understood that withholding the information for a month prevents the opponent from receiving Clean Elections matching funds in a timely manner thereby negating the equalizing intent of the law. In this case, however, candidate Al Melvin did not appear to be impacted as he had already received his maximum match for the campaign.

Several inside sources have repeated Charlene's statements that she had no intention of running for re-election this year, although the Democrat party has indicated otherwise. There are no indications at this point that this situation will have an effect on her decision.

Nintzel to AZ Dems - Play a new tune

Tucson Weekly columnist Jim Nintzel is the last person you would describe as a member of the vast right wing conspiracy but even he has had enough of the Democrats harping on Senator Tim Bee and resign to run. In his recent weekly column Nintzel issues the following reminder:

The Dems should really work up a new angle, by the way; it's a slippery slope to keep harping on the idea that a candidate can't handle campaigning and serving in office at the same time. Is Attorney General Terry Goddard supposed to resign in 2010 if he decides to run for governor? Is Gov. Janet Napolitano supposed to resign if she runs for the U.S. Senate in the last year of her term?

Earmark Breakthough...Maybe

Wow! It seems that some elected officials are stepping up to the plate and eschewing earmarks. Yet, while some are taking the plunge, President Bush's stance has stiffened on calls by conservatives to use his Executive Order privilege to take the teeth out of any earmark that makes it past his desk. Clearly, one doesn't need the other to break the earmark curse, but if congress and the Prez could agree on anything, solving the pork problem would be a great place to start.

Who's Next?

Two more have dropped out of the GOP presidential race meaning those followers will have to go somewhere. Where do they go and what does it mean for those contenders still duking it out? Back in December, I raised this issue. But now that we're further into the fun, I'll raise it again.

As I've mentioned before, Duncan Hunter, as a candidate, was probably the conservative's conservative, but never seemed to gain traction with anyone (although he did pick up a delegate in Wyoming). His followers are certainly conservatives. Although, the numbers are few, they will most likely end up with Romney. They can't go to Guiliani or McCain. They would most likely have gone to Thompson before he dropped, but now have to choose between Huckabee, who is fast losing ground, and Romney, who is still in the lead. Most, albeit few, will end up with Romney. A few may join Ron Paul.

I've also before stated that although Fred Thompson, longtime friend of McCain, will probably endorse McCain, which will give him some needed support, many Thompson supporters saw Fred as an alternative to Huckabee who was too weak on non-social issues. Now many of those supporters are faced with the same choice as Hunter's supporters. Most of those who don't go to McCain will go to Romney. Huckabee will take the biggest hit on this shift.

Huckabee needs a strong showing in Florida to hang on, but isn't likely to get it. His organization is weak in Florida, and he doesn't seem to be building the excitement he had in Iowa which is certainly a different demographic. Giuliani, who bailed on state after state in order to put what he had left into a big win in Florida, is spent, and he will probably end well behind the pack. The big question still remains what happens to the Huckabeee and/or Giuliani supporters when one or both drop out? I believe they will both split to the remaining frontrunners with Romney ending up with

As in Nevada and Michigan, polling has been underreporting Romney supporters in Florida...until recently. It looks increasingly like Florida will go to Romney. There has been speculation about a possible endorsement from Jeb Bush to one of the candidates. If Jeb endorses anyone, it will be Romney with whom he has had a positive relationship for some time. If that happens, Romney nails it. If not, Romney is on his own with fairly strong momentum.

McCain needs to win this race, or hold his own in a tight matchup in order to stay in the game. A win would be the huge boost that he needs. A big loss would be tough to overcome on Super Tuesday. Romney, likewise, is in a similar situation, but better positioned, it appears.

Unless there are some big surprises next Tuesday, it looks like it will be Romney and McCain as the top picks going into February 5th.

Lena Saradnik's Replacement Selected

Nancy Wright gets the nod.

Despite getting 62 out of 76 votes cast by his district, Don Jorgenson was slammed by his fellow Democrats at the Board meeting this morning. Supervisor Bronson wisely anointed fellow Supervisors to make the motion and the 2nd to get a vote on Nancy thereby distancing herself from the back-door deal against Don.

A Bee Choice

This is a fascinating announcement and commentary posted on Sonoran Alliance regarding the Bee campaign's new pick for a third vice-chairman.

The first pick, Jim Click, was clearly symbolic in an effort to assure would-be contributors that Bee has the big money backing him. The second chairman, or co-chairman, Sandy Froman, is believed by many to be an effort to pull in northwest side activists as well as the conservatives due to Sandy's standing as the NRA Past-president and the respect she commands in her own district.

The reason for Jim Kolbe as a third co-chairman is much less apparent. If it's for the purpose of drawing in NRCC support, considering the substantial shift that has occurred in the NRCC since the Kolbe-Huffman fiasco of '06, we're left scratching our heads. Kolbe's joining the Giffords campaign during the last election has seriously weakened his influence...at least in the GOP, which further whittles down that chip.

In speculating on the motives of this move, it may be useful to assess the cost of these decisions. Although, Jim Click has stirred up plenty of controversy lately, the cost of his involvement is probably mostly offset by his ability to bring financial backing to the campaign. Sandy carries no baggage in the party and can only be a plus albeit not likely in the way the campaign anticipated. Nobody would argue that Kolbe, however, doesn't alienate a substantial percentage of party activists and members, regardless of who they supported in the CD8 Primary election.

How this will affect the Bee campaign, as a net positive or negative, remains to be seen. Perhaps it will become more apparent after Bee's announcement.

Sharon Bronson's Backroom Deal

Posted on Blog for Arizona is a letter from Lena Saradnik confronting Sharon Bronson on stacking the vote in favor of Nancy Young Wright as Lena's replacement. Apparently, there is a bit of cronyism going on and Lena's not too happy about it keeping her pick, Don Jorgenson, out of the picture.

Vote Trent v.1.0

OK, NOW the Trent Humphries 2008 website is up.

http://www.votetrent.com

We do have a few rough edges to knock off and a mountain of content to add, but I am very proud of the result so far.

And yes, grammar checks are welcome and appreciated.

Thanks for the tip

There are two conservative Arizona political blogs that cover Southern Arizona. One of them even specializes in CD-8. Does the Bee campaign give either of them a tip on his announcement? No, we have to read about it on a less than conservative independent blog. I wonder if the campaign will want our help as the year progresses. We’ll still be here.

District 30 GOP update

Word is that Dr. Wayne Peate has decided to pass on running for the legislature this year. According to the information that we have that still leaves the following candidates (sorry we cannot find a web site for Sharon Collins.)

Frank Antenori
Sharon Collins
David Gowan
Doug Sposito

We have heard that Frank Antenori is very popular. The district has a history of also electing a woman to the house and that should benefit Sharon Collins. The fact that Sharon is a bit more conservative than Marian McClure should help Collins even more. Gowan has some name recognition because of multiple runs for the house. The more moderate Sposito may have trouble getting his message out above the other candidates.

Lena Saradnik's Replacement Nominees Named

Thanks to fellow blogger Rum, Romanism and Rebellion for providing District 26's nominees for Lena Saradnik's replacement to finish the current session before this fall's election. It appears that the choices are (drum roll please):
Cheryl Cage
Don Jorgenson, current candidate
Nancy Young Wright

Tedski is betting on Wright as the County Board's pick, but where does that put Jorgenson who has been endorsed by Saradnik?

Who Speaks for Southern Arizona Retirees?

We're not yet sure of the economic impact on our community since according some this situation doesn't really exist, but an article on the worst places to retire has identified southern Arizona as a not-so-hot spot for retirees. Here's what the article said about Green Valley, the 12th worst place to retire in America:

"Green Valley, Arizona: Trouble in a Sheltered Community
This once idyllic retirement town is now facing a drug violence problem. Green Valley, just 40 miles north of the Mexican border, is mostly made up of age-restricted communities. In the 2000 census, only 1.5% of households had kids under 18 and only about 105 of its 26,000 residents work. Once cited as a best place to retire, Green Valley now may be one of the worst.

Gangs of bandits known as bajadores carry AK-47s and ambush trucks of smugglers sneaking up from Mexico. They hope to resell the drugs or hold the immigrants hostage. According to an investigation by CBS News, hundreds of bodies are found in the surrounding desert each year and at least a dozen people have been murdered by the bajadores this year."

Has anyone told the Governor about this?

Linoln Day Luncheon with Bay Buchanan!

The Southern Pima Arizona Republican Club (SPARC) is pleased to announce that Bay Buchanan will be the keynote speaker at their annual Lincoln Day Luncheon. The event is scheduled for Saturday, February 16th, 11:00AM at the Desert Diamond Casino located at I-19 and Pima Mine Road. Cost of the luncheon is $35.00 per person.

Angela Marie "Bay" Buchanan served as Treasurer of the United States under President Ronald Reagan. She is the sister of Patrick J. Buchanan and managed his three campaigns for President of the United States. After appearing regularly on CNN's news program "Inside Politics," she became a commentator for CNN's The Situation Room.


For more information and reservation forms, please contact Cathy Graf, SPARC President, (520) 625-1742.

Election Results Databases Released

On Friday, after a little haggling over procedures to be used, Pima County turned over the data ordered by the Board of Supervisors. As reported in a previous post, the Pima County Board of Supervisors agreed to turn over the series of databases to the 2006 RTA, 2006 Primary and 2006 General elections. As of Friday afternoon, the details as to how this was to be done had yet to been finalized.

The parties involved finally agreed to the procedure which included getting sequestered hard drives out of the courts and using a brand new laptop computer in the transfer. Supervisors Ann Day and Ray Carroll were on hand to make sure that not only the language of the Board was adhered to, but also the intent. And the intent was to get this information to the political parties in an expeditious and complete manner.

From what I understand, this is the first time anywhere in the country that the series of databases have been available to the public. The reason to get these databases is to see if there are any irregularities in the data tabulations. Such irregularities, if they exist (and it is believed that they may in the RTA election), could bring into doubt the outcome of the election. It will take some time for the analysis but you can consider it under way.

Hats off to the Pima County Democrat Party, Attorney Bill Risner, Auditor John Brakey and Computer Expert Jim March for their persistence in this matter. Stay tuned.

Randy Graf

Too PC to Hit the Nail

Not to be confused with Guns and Roses, AZ Daily Star's Thorns & Flowers shot itself in the foot yesterday with the following statement:
"Thorns to those who toss aside their plastic water bottles as they walk and hike.
A Saturday afternoon hike along the Anza Trail near Tubac was exquisite: Blue sky with wispy clouds, a comfortable breeze, crunchy leaves on the ground and a cold running river. It was marred by clumps of plastic bottles stuck in the mud.
Apparently, a handful of selfish hikers don't know the outdoor ethic of leaving no trace of your presence.
Leave the woods and waters cleaner than you found them."

Having hiked that trail and picked up plenty of trash, I know that anyone who makes a statement like this has never been there, or is too PC to tell the truth. Just look at those plastic bottles and it's obvious where they came from. If you don't speak Spanish, you can at least recognize the labels contain zero English. Along with foreign label clothes strewn all over the ground, Mexican food cans, truck load levels of water bottles, soiled underwear and more disgusting items make it clear that it's drug smugglers, people smugglers, and other illegals who have created the mess, not your average Joe and Sally hiker who happen to enjoy the beautiful outdoors on a Saturday morning. Despite the herculean efforts of Boy Scouts and other groups who try to clean it up every year, it's still an environmental nightmare that would be declared a hazardous waste site if environmental groups had the guts to tell the truth about it.

Selfish hikers? Come on. Thorns to Thorns & Flowers for such a misleading statement that unfairly blames honest citizens for a problem our elected officials refuse to address.

Board of Supervisors Finally Gets One Right

I believe it was Ronald Reagan who once said, "Trust but verify." This is the essence of what culminated at the Pima County Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday, January 8th. We now have proof that our representative republic can be validated with actions taken by "We the People" and our elected officials.

The Pima County Democrat Party initiated a law suit some time ago against Pima County and it's Elections Division concerning irregularities that may have occurred in the electoral process. At issue in particular are concerns around the Regional Transportation Authority election that narrowly passed in May of 2006. During the trial, security issues were raised that question a whole host of procedures employed by staff and not addressed by County Administrator Chuck Huckleberry. These breaches of proper protocol bring into question everything from early ballot votes and who knew what when, to the possibility of vote total manipulation. Clouds like this over an election are unhealthy for the populace regardless of party affiliation or ideology.

Hat's off to the Democrat party for moving this forward. The judge ordered the county to turn over the final vote tally databases of the 2006 Primary and General election. The Pima County Board of Supervisors were scheduled to vote to appeal this decision. With bipartisan support against such an appeal, the Board originally voted against the appeal and to follow the judge's order. But those of us attending this meeting that were pushing for transparency in our electoral process were not satisfied. After some boisterous moments demanding that folks in attendance were still waiting to be heard, the Chair relented. These folks were heard, including some computer experts explaining that the County's concern of possible security issues in future elections being compromised by releasing past election data bases were baseless.

After a Board executive session, and against County Counsel recommendation, the Board overturned their previous vote and agreed to turn over the entire series of data bases to the 2006 RTA, 2006 Primary and 2006 General elections. With these data bases it is assumed that any irregularities, if they exist, can be recognized.

There are questions around the country about election fraud. There is no definitive evidence as to whether there was any committed here in Pima County on the RTA election or any other election. It is imperative however that the process be transparent. The County asks "We the People" to trust them, in return "We the People" ask them to let us verify. As Joseph Stalin said, “Those who cast the votes DECIDE NOTHING. Those who count the votes DECIDE EVERYTHING."

Randy Graf

He'll Sell You the Whole Seat...

...but you'll only need the edge.

The word on Tim Bee is that he will be making an announcement next week about his campaign intentions. But according to Dan Scarpinato, "Asked if he planned to announce before the end of the month, he said: “I’m not prepared to answer that today.”

It was once speculated that if he didn't raise enough money through the end of 2007, Bee might not go the distance. But insiders are saying Bee has a pretty good start on fundraising and, supporters are saying that at this point bad things would happen to him if he bailed out. Anyway, all indications are that Bee is a solid GO despite his sadastic pleasure watching supporters sweat about his decision. Apparantly, he would rather take a Second Coming approach and surprise the masses. No matter. The word will come and Bee will have his name on the ballot...at some point.

Hillary and McCain take New Hamphshire

It looks like Hillary Clinton showed up smiling with a sweet victory over Obama who people were saying would sweep the primaries. Not so. Hillary shows she's still in the game despite recent sagging in the polls. So much for polls.

And McCain let everyone know he's playing for keeps in a narrow victory over Romney. McCain has a lot of ground to cover in most remaining states, but this victory was critical for keeping the wheels on the wagon. Again, Romney could have used the victory, but a close second works as well. He continues to run neck and neck in other states with Giuliani or McCain which means all three are already looking ahead to the next couple of states.

Poor Wyoming Gets No Respect

For you Cowboy fans out there, it looks like Mitt has the bulk of the pledged delegates from Saturday's primary.

Here's the breakdown:Mitt Romney gets 8, Fred Thompson came away with 3, and Duncan Hunter stays in the game picking up 1.
No sign of Giuliani, McCain or Huckabee supporters, not that anyone seems overly concerned. Still, Romney can use the additional delegates and probably doesn't care where they come from, or who bothers to report it.

Shift in LD26 Race

Bloggers are jumping to report today's news that Lena Saradnik has resigned from her position in the state House of Representatives. Sadly, Lena's stroke was much worse than the Democrat party let on. Once it was known that she was in the hospital for several weeks, it was clear things were anything but minor. Her ability to communicate was recognized as a major challenge that, no doubt, left her with no alternative but to resign. Regaining speech can take months, possibly over a year, and requires commitment and focus, which I'm sure will absorb her full attention for a while. We wish her a rapid and complete recovery.

The LD26 House seat vacated by Lena will be discussed by LD26 Democrats who will put forward 3 nominees to the Pima County Board of Supervisors who will appoint Lena's replacement on January 15th, a process I still find more than bizarre. In any case, candidate Don Jorgenson is the likely nominee. If Don is not selected, it will be seen as a no-confidence vote that will doom his campaign. Unless there is a boogeyman lurking in the shadows, I expect Don will get the nod.

LD26 Democrats also have another challenge in trying to find a second candidate to fill the open slot in the election. Francine Schacter and Jeff Latas are names that have emerged in the scuttlebutt. Maybe we can find a mole in the Democrat party who can slip some inside information into the blog about who, if anyone, will step into the race.

Lena's announcement isn't expected to change much on the Republican side. The two early announcers, Trent Humphries and Marilyn Zerull, along with more recent entrant, Vic Williams, will likely complete the slate of candidates for the Republican primary.

Very early polling

ThinkRight recently ran a story about how “winnable” the CD-8 race is based on some early polling conducted by the Bee exploratory committee. After reading the Capital Times article cited by Tom we come up with a slightly different conclusion.

First, lets look at the latest registration numbers from the district. According to Secretary of State there are almost 393,000 voters. The Republicans number just over 149,000 and the Democrats 131,000. That puts the GOP at 38% and the Democrats at 33.3%. There are a few Libertarians and a significant number of independents, almost 110,000 (28%.) The poll claims that Bee is competitive because of the 300 voters questioned Representative Giffords only won by 36% to 30% for Senator Bee. The article did not spell out party affiliate but did say “Those polled preferred Republicans over Democrats, 34 percent to 30 percent.” That 4-point spread is very close to the registration numbers in the district.

If Giffords had polled even with Bee that means she would have overcome a 4-point deficit in registration. The fact that she is ahead by 6 points indicates that she in really 10 points above where she should be based strictly on party registration assuming an even split of independents. So either she is winning big among independents, pulling in some Republican voters, or a combination of both.

Any polling at this time is much too early to be indicative of the final results. That being said I am not sure I would have put the exact number in the letter. Why not just say “early polling indicates that a race between Senator Bee and Representative Giffords would be competitive.”

The bright spot of the article was that the poll was conducted by The Summit Consulting Group. They have helped many successful candidates, recently getting Representative Kavanagh through a crowded primary field and onto victory in LD-8. Hopefully they will have the same effect on the Bee campaign. Either way the rabid anti-Sproul fringe of the party will be happy to see the campaign using someone besides the Lincoln Strategy Group.

And the Speculating Continues...

So here we are on the eve of the second day of presidential caucusing for 2008 and nobody is even talking about it with "it" being Wyoming's caucuses. As bad as it makes me feel, I don't plan to discuss it either. Instead, here are my thoughts about the upcoming primaries minus Wyoming:

I won't say much about the Democrat side other than sharing the idea that if Edwards and Obama split the anti-Hillary vote, and Edwards is likely to bail early in the process, those votes should shift to Obama giving him a huge boost in the more Hillary-favored states. After his comfortable victory in Iowa, he has momentum and looks more and more like a tough competitor to Hillary.

As for Republicans, it came as no surprise that Huckabee won in Iowa. What was unexpected by some, including yours truly, was the margin by which he won. Of course, the evangelical supporters Huckabee has in Iowa don't exist at that level in most other states, so Huckabee should savor the victory and hope the momentum helps carry him in other states. But the reality is, he doesn't have that kind of support in more than a handful of states, and he has no money to work on boosting his image in the other states. This is the high mark for the Huckabee campaign although strong wins in Michigan and South Carolina can help him hold on longer.

Romney didn't have to win Iowa, but a closer second certainly would have helped him. Romney will likely win in New Hampshire and probably win in Michigan by a narrow margin. If he loses either state by a significant margin, he is in trouble. But if he loses New Hampshire, he may begin losing supporters who will worry that he can't win it all. He is doing okay in South Carolina which is all he has to do to stay in the game provided he does well in New Hampshire and Michigan as expected. Likewise, finishing strong in Nevada and Florida coupled with a win or close second in New Hampshire and Michigan puts him in position to take most of the marbles on Super Tuesday.

Despite what some have said about McCain, I think he's definitely in the game. He may show strong results in New Hampshire and Michigan which could give him the boost he needs, but it gets tougher after that. If he can maintain his momentum with reasonable showings in Nevada and Florida, he may have enough to show some surprises on Super Tuesday.

Giuliani is getting more and more difficult to gauge as his numbers slide. Of course, his best is ahead of him with a possible decent showing in New Hampshire, and very good chances in Nevada and Florida where he will be duking it out with Romney in what will likely be close races. A couple of strong victories here will position him well for February.

Thompson won't last much longer and will soon shift his support to McCain. Many of his supporters will move to Romney's camp, however. If Huckabee fades quickly, he will be the next to bail and his supporters will split between McCain and Romney. This could have a substantial impact on the outcome for the remaining three candidates.

Anyone recruiting VP candidates?

Iowa Caucus Results 9 PM

Here are the results from the Iowa Democrat Party website:

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 37.53%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 29.88%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.38%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 2.11%
SENATOR JOE BIDEN : 0.95%
UNCOMMITTED : 0.13%
SENATOR CHRIS DODD : 0.02%
PRECINCTS REPORTING: 1732 OF 1781
(PERCENTAGES ARE STATE DELEGATE EQUIVALENTS.)


According to the Iowa GOP website, Romney took the eastern and western counties in the state while Huckabee took everything in between. In the Huckabee counties, the pattern was fairly consistent with Huckabee taking first place followed by Romney in second and Thompson a distant third. The counties won by Romney were far less consistent with Huckabee, Paul, McCain, and Thompson frequently swapping places. As the night wanes, Huckabee's lead expands. No other candidate has taken first place in a county, and there are only a few left to report.

I'm having a hard time finding total numbers for the Republicans, but with 1,168 of 1,781 precincts reporting, Huckabee has 25,776 to Romney's 18,925.

According to Fox News it's Huckabee at 38%, Romney at 23%, Thompson at 14%, McCain at 12%.

Pima County GOP Fills Open Position

David Jorgenson, who finished strong in last year's LD26 primary race for state House, was widely expected to be the replacement county party member-at-large when Dorothy Shanahan moved out of state. Others speculated that one of the several long-time party activists who applied would fill the slot.

As it turns out, all the speculators were wrong. In a surprise move, Judi White selected relative newcomer, Tom Dunn, known for his blogging on ThinkRight Arizona. Tom brings the number of LD26 representatives on the executive committee to three in addition to LD26 chairman, David Smith.

Goddard Office Dealing In Black and White?

We recently became aware of an alleged racial issue in state agencies under Governor Napolitano beginning with the Department of Public Safety licensing division which is suspected of collusion with certain private security agencies. It seems that new security firms run by certain minorities have been dragged through the mud when it comes to getting a license. In what is said to be a racially motivated effort, DPS licensing personnel are suspected of colluding with existing security firms friendly to DPS. One firm fighting the battle with DPS has been successful for many years in other states, but has been forced to run the obstacle course with DPS for most of 2007 with no license in sight. In the meantime, Terry Goddard's office has been identified as a possible colluder with DPS. There are some big names that are involved behind the scenes. It may be interesting to see where this ends up as lawsuits begin to be filed.

Here We Go, Again

We don't do much about Kwanza at our house, but Christmas was a great day and we're still enjoying it. It's a holiday like no other in our country possibly enjoyed most of all by those crazy people in Washington.

President Bush, for example, signed an omnibus appropriations bill yesterday that was pushed across his desk by a congress drunk with holiday spending of taxpayer dollars. Not only did our self-proclaimed hawkish-on-spending Democrats give the Prez 8 billion with a capital B dollars more than he asked, but piled on the Christmas ham sneaking in 21,000 (yes, I got the zeroes right) earmarks.

Remember last year's Secure Fence Act? Read their lips, "No more fencing." This bill completely gutted the 2006 law stripping away the financing and shoving it into proverbial pig farms.

HO! HO! HO! Here we go...again.

Re-aligning Has Begun: Tom Tancredo Kicks It Off

Maybe the lines have been drawn, but they're now being re-aligned. Tom Tancredo starts it off by being the first major candidate to announce he's stepping out of the race. On the way out, he paused long enough to hand his endorsement to Mitt Romney.

It's interesting that he chose Romney. Clearly, Duncan Hunter is the strongest of all remaining candidates when it comes to advocating border security. Then again, Hunter may be the next candidate to bow out. If Tancredo had given his endorsement to Hunter, what would he have accomplished? Romney, on the other hand, does have a reasonable record on Tancredo's favorite issue and has a chance at taking home all the marbles.

Tancredo's endorsement doesn't create a huge advantage for Romney since Tancredo's campaign never really gained traction. But, border security is still a major issue with Americans and the endorsement does lend credibility to Romney on a key platform issue that he needs to counter the perception of Giuliani's strong 9-11 leadership, and as a stick in Giuliani's eye when it comes to his record on illegal immigration.

So, who will be next? Ron Paul and Alan Keyes are in the race on principle. They want to get their messages out, so they won't leave anytime soon so long at they have money to show up at debates. The next candidate to drop out will probably be Duncan Hunter followed by Fred Thompson after a couple of primaries. Hunter, like Trancredo, will probably back Romney. Again, it won't have a huge impact, but does bolster Romney's credibility among strong national security advocates and gives Romney some needed support on foreign policy issues. Thompson is a little harder to predict and a lot rides on how long he stays in the race. Most likely, Huckabee will be the first to show a significant drop in popularity in the early primaries which will encourage Thompson to line up behind Romney. This will cause a significant group of conservatives to shift into Romney's column thereby further weakening Huckabee who will have no money to stay in the game. Where do Huckabee's followers go? Most will go to Romney making McCain supporters the wild card in the race between Romney and Giuliani.

Of course, a lot rides on how long candidates will wait to step out of the race. The longer they hold out, the more it hurts Romney and gives the edge to Giuliani, not that Romney is hurting for support. In the meantime, undecideds, who still play a major role, will begin deciding based on who emerges as front-runners. Perhaps they're the biggest wild card of all.

As events unfold the next couple of months, watch for the realigning of candidates because that's where most of the supporters will go which, undoubtedly, colors the perceptions of late-deciders.

Whose RIghts?

It's not discussed much in the media, but it's fast becoming a heated battle across the nation. This past year there were quite a few states that tried to pass some law or other relating to weapons in the workplace. Oklahoma was host to the biggest showdown that gave the first round to individuals, but ended with a ruling for employer rights.

The Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) anticipates a major push in 2008 for more states to join in the debate and has issued the following statement:
“SHRM believes, and the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act requires, that employers provide safe workplaces for their employees, including safeguards from threats or acts of violence. Further, SHRM believes that a secure workplace, free from threats of violence, not only protects the physical, mental and emotional health of employees, but also positively affects productivity, morale, absenteeism, turnover, and employee and customer satisfaction.

“SHRM supports employers’ freedom to decide how best to create a secure and safe workplace. The Society opposes any legislative, regulatory or policy attempts that restrict employers from safeguarding their employees.”

Their position should come as no surprise considering they signed on as a friend-of-the-court supporting employers in the Oklahoma case. But it's a tough issue that strikes at the heart of two sacrosanct positions: personal property rights and individual 2nd Amendment rights.

So far, in an interesting mix of red and blue, Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky and Minnesota have supported individual rights and preventing employers from banning weapons in the workplace. Amazingly, this hasn't even emerged as a question in the debates the past few months. But maybe the presidential primary debates haven't yet hit the right state.

The Facts Don't Add Up With the NIE

According to the Washington TImes, a Revolutionary Guard general, Alireza Asgari, is the Iranian who defected and is the source for the NIE”s statement that Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003.

That's odd because when Asgari spilled the beans, everyone was quoting Frenchman Sarkozy who was suddenly concerned about Iran's nuclear weapons. It sure didn't sound like they were talking about a country that quit working on nuclear arms 4 years ago. In fact, just a couple of years ago, the CIA said it was convinced that Iran was pursuing a nuclear weapons program.

So what gives?

According to Senator Kit Bond, the NIE report relied on information from 2003. It's a shame it's now 2007 and that in-depth report is a bit rusty. Bond says Iran is still enriching uranium and developing missiles despite what the NIE says.

But that doesn't explain how the same agency can whipsaw back and forth about whether or not Iran is developing nuclear weapons. Is the problem really with outdated information? Some say the problem is with NIE boss, Thomas Fingar, who is known for his anti-Bush antics like helping the Democrats prevent John Bolton from being confirmed and cleaning out every staffer who speaks out about threats from anti-American dictators. It seems Thomas Fingar may have a political agenda and used the NIE report as a pawn in the game.

So much for reliable intelligence data from the NIE.

They Said It Was Impossible

Ronald Reagan would be proud. His SDI program (strategic defense initiative) was ridiculed by the left much like the nay sayers who laughed at the idea that we could put men on the moon. Well, the shield is up and according to the DOD all 50 states are now protected by the missile shield system. It's an amazing feat that took someone with vision and commitment to initiate.

Funny thing, a year ago we were hearing how a border fence was impossible. Now, nobody questions whether we can, just whether we should.

Wealth and Winning

This was kind of interesting to check out. The little guy in the race turns out to be a millionaire.

Check out the net worth of the top presidential candidates courtesy of Money Magazine.

Here they are from top to bottom:

Mitt Romney: $202 million mostly by founding and growing Bain Capital.

John Edwards: $54.7 million mostly from suing doctors for medical malpractice.

Rudy Giuliani: $52.2 million mostly as a lobbyist through Giuliani Partners.

John McCain: $40.4 million mostly from his wife who inherited Hensley & Co., the Anheuser-Busch beer distribution business.

Hillary Clinton: $34.9 million mostly from Bill's speaking fees, but also from her books.

Fred Thompson: $8.1 million mostly from acting jobs, particularly Law & Order.

Barack Obama: $1.3 million mostly from his books and his wife's job as a University of Chicago Hospitals executive.

Of Polls, Pontifications, and Pundits

According to CNN's latest poll, Obama has wiped out Hillary's lead and turned it into a tie in New Hampshire. Some say Hillary's weaker numbers are the result of Bill Clinton taking a more active role in the campaign. A clue that the critics may be on to something is the 10 point drop in support for Hillary is among Democrat women, not men.

Thompson barely flicked the needle on the scale of this one, which will further close the lid on his chances. Huckabee continues to show poorly with no meaningful progress in New Hampshire and with about enough money to run a strong congressional campaign. It appears that he may have peaked a hair too early for the momentum he needs, but not early enough to get the funding. Another blow to his campaign is the National Review Online choosing Romney over Huckabee as their editorial board's conservative choice.

Today's GOP debate was fairly lackluster across the board. I heard some gave the highest ratings to Thompson who was said to have made his strongest showing of the campaign. Personally, I thought he was strong on a couple of issues, but would be hard-pressed to give him the whole enchilada. Relatively speaking, I thought Hunter had the best performance with Romney perhaps close behind. Alan Keyes was noticeably present in this debate.

In all the polling and speculating, it's important to keep in mind that about half of voters/caucus goers, in the early primary states, are still trying to figure out who will get their votes.

Are We "Daft" in the U.S.?

A fascinating article describes how Brits choose to deal with religious diversity in their country when it comes to celebrating Christmas. According to the article,

Hindus, Sikhs and Muslims joined Britain's equality watchdog on Monday in urging Britons to enjoy Christmas without worrying about offending non-Christians.
"It's time to stop being daft about Christmas. It's fine to celebrate and it's fine for Christ to be star of the show," said Trevor Phillips, chairman of the Equality and Human Rights Commission.

With so much nonsense about whether it's okay for the school choir to sing a Christmas song about Christmas, or if the HOA should allow homeowners to post a Christmas message on their front lawn, it's refreshing to know there exists some sanity in the world about celebrating religious holidays.

Freedom requires religion

I'll chalk it up to being sleep deprived due to the newborn baby, to muddling through the argument below. Fortunately the New York Post makes the succinct argument for me: (via The Corner)

We'd concede it may be possible in theory for a society to be both free of religion and politically free, but it has not happened any time in history that we are aware of, certainly not in contemporary Europe. The highest-profile attempts at religion-free societies, revolutionary France and Bolshevik Russia, both resulted in paroxysms of violence that trampled both political and religious freedoms. When the great editor of the Wall Street Journal, Robert Bartley, made a trip to the Soviet Union, he concluded that the great flaw in its system was its official atheism.

No one is suggesting that all religious societies are politically free; Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan under the Taliban are cases in point. Nor are we suggesting that the American government should establish one religion over another, or that atheists or agnostics cannot be good citizens. There are countless examples to prove otherwise. But belief in a higher power is so fundamental to the development of civilization and is such a ubiquitous, deep, and abiding feature of such huge numbers of civilized people that it is impossible, by definition, to exclude religion without destroying liberty for all.

If Mr. Romney left some of these particulars unsaid, perhaps he felt the point had been already made by the man after whom the Washington Post was named. In his 1796 farewell address, the first president said: "And let us with caution indulge the supposition that morality can be maintained without religion. Whatever may be conceded to the influence of refined education on minds of peculiar structure, reason and experience both forbid us to expect that national morality can prevail in exclusion of religious principle."

If George Washington said it, it carries weight with me.

Romney's Faith In America Address

Should he, or shouldn't he? They said he shouldn't do it, but here it is: Romney's "Faith In America" Address.  Listen to it and judge for yourself. Should he have?

Gabby: "Change Can't Wait"

In last year's election, Gabby said "change can't wait," but we're still waiting. Instead of rolling up their sleeves and aggressively solving the nation's woes, the Dems decided they needed to cut back. Here's CNN's response.

Where No Congress Has Gone Before

Now you, too, can become a super sleuth from the comfort of your own home. Congress, which controls a budget of $2,784,000,000,000, just can't seem to come up with a solution for the border security crisis. But a handful of citizens figured something out and did it themselves in just a couple of years setting up mobile cameras along the border that anyone can access via the web. Somehow, I don't recall this in Gabby's "comprehensive plan." It looks like we've created a high tech world and elected a low tech congress.

Thanks to Iris for making this available. Here's the link to the KGUN-9 report: http://www.kgun9.com/NewsArticle/tabid/1112/xmid/16735/Default.aspx.

Here's the Skinny. . .

I can cross one of my life's goal's off the list, I got my name in the Skinny.

Yeah, I know it isn't much, but I did dodge some of the editorial bombs delivered to Daniel Patterson and David Gowan. In fact, it appears that I avoided any labeling outside of "Republican" and "blogger," which I can live with. Additionally, Mr. Nintzel knows enough about what we do here to correctly identify me as an individual blogger of a few on the site, which means that he has a passing familiarity with my views. To top it off, we got a link too. Thanks, Jim.

To our faithful readers, know this: I will not quit, I will not tire, I will not relent until I get my characiture printed in a future column as well.

Hillary Is Out, Obama Is In

No longer is Hillary the woman to beat. The latest Zogby poll suggests that Obama is now the favorite. According to the poll, all of the top five Republican contenders defeat Hillary while Obama polls over all Republican leaders. Edwards, likewise, polls over Republicans, but not as strongly as Obama.

Of course, as I've said before, the race isn't a national popularity contest; it's a state-by-state competition. And only state-level polls are really relevant. But it is interesting to see how things can shift substantially as the only polls that matter draw near.

A Tough Tightrope to Walk

It's never easy trying to maintain strong ties to critical political allies and financial supporters when they don't always agree with many in your constituent base. Some in the Arizona GOP congressional delegation found that out in last year's election when Bush administration and RNC officials interfered with last year's CD8 race. Even though they tried to maintain public neutrality, some of our delegation found themselves wiping their prints when leaving the gate open for the NRCC. Admittedly, it was a tough position to manage. What made it even more stressful was the fact that some were up for reelection and counted on campaign work and votes from the very conservative base they were selling to their D.C. allies. 

It didn't end there, however. After the election, the congressional delegation again found themselves pushed onto the tightrope in the battle for control of the state Republican party. Even though when it was over most Republicans felt relieved that everyone could then go back to the business of defeating Democrats, some elected officials couldn't let it end there. While staying out of the fray, publicly, they have found ways to continue the battle. Not that it makes sense for the local party to depend on financial support from elected officials, anyway. But it's difficult for local activists to reconcile their feelings about this behavior with what they know needs to be done to retain critical seats for Republicans.

I don't know, but I think if I were planning to run for re-election, I would be trying to communicate that I'm part of the constituency that elects me. I think I would want to be a force for unity ensuring that regardless of differences, I desire to alienate nobody, particularly those who walk the streets and get out the votes for me. Sometimes it pays to be a Republican first and a D.C. politician second. Some in the party apparently still need to get that message.

Happy Thanksgiving Day!

It seems that over two hundred years ago, some religious guy wasn't too PC to write and sign this proclamation. Some might think he didn't understand the principles on which the nation was founded, but I suspect he had a pretty good idea of what he was doing. Of course, the ACLU wasn't around at that time or he surely would have been sued.

Anyway, Thank-you George Washington for helping us remember the great blessings we have and from where they come.

And thanks to Sonoran Alliance for posting  the holiday declaration penned by our first President.

Who's supporting Ron Paul?

I have read with some amusement much of the analysis concerning Ron Paul supporters. The interesting part is that much of this takes place without actually speaking to Ron Paul followers. It's not that hard to find them, and they are more than happy to speak to you and tell you anything you want to know. My results are somewhat anecdotal, but I have spoke to a number of supporters, and here is what I have found. I'll lay it out by showing the conventional wisdom, and then what I found:

1. Ron Paul supporters are the normal third party ragtag that show up every now and then then go away. No, most of the supporters that I spoke to are Republicans with strong Republican voting records. A majority voted for President Bush in the last Presidential election. Extrapolated outward, an independent run by Paul would be a disaster for Republican chances for winning the White House. Ron Paul Supporters are no more fringe elements than Huckabee supporters as far as their party creds go. Republicans would do well to respect them as they would any other candidate's supporters, especially on the local and state levels.

2. Ron Paul is making his name as an anti war candidate. I didn't get that from the supporters that I spoke to. The overriding sense that I got was that monetary issues trumped everything with them. Indeed, the fact that the US dollar is worth less than the Canadian dollar was more likely to raise their hackles. Objection to the war was much in part to the treasure wasted and the needless entanglement of American interest rather than some "BUSH LIED!!!" screed. It's my belief that Liberals who view Paul as a reflection of their own disdain of the war aren't fully informed.

3. Ron Paul supporters will make good targets for Democratic flipping. If you think that Ron Paul people dislike George Bush, ask them what they believe about Hillary Clinton. Outside of ending the War in Iraq, there is very little that would attract Paul followers to current Democratic policy. And the War issue is not as important as you have been led to believe.

4. Ron Paul Supporters are all young students. Some of the more visible supporters are students, but they are balanced out by supporters of all ages. Indeed, you do not raise 4 million in one day on the back of students. Again, many of the supporters are lifelong Republicans with firm Republican voting records.

5. The "Paul Surge" will be viewed as a 2007 phenomenon. This is simply not true. There is little as far as charisma goes to account for Paul's following. It's his message that is making headway, and that is not going away. Granted, we are a ways off from Goldwater-like reframing, but there is a growing section of the Republican party that is entirely dissatisfied with spending and expansion of government. There is also the looming sense that the opportunity to do anything about it is going to close. As the issues of the War and Immigration are dealt with one way or another, this issue will move closer to the forefront, and the groundwork built by Paul and his followers will be expanded. This will probably be evident in local and state elections first where, for the most part, the War and Federal enforcement of immigration aren't on the table.

I invite any feedback or criticism.

Toe-mah-toe, Toe-may-toe

Some people demand perfection in political correctness. Any slip ups are grounds for rebuke by having a nasty label slapped on the perpetrator—labels like racist, bigot, homophobe, male chauvinist pig. You know the drill. So, for all those tired of being afraid to open their mouths for fear of offending, here's something for you in THE PC OF IT ALL.

It'll Be a KOLD Day in Tucson...

KOLD news was the only station to get a report that the military was notified last May of several Iraqis who had entered the U.S. from Mexico through border tunnels and planned to attack Fort Huachuca. No timetable was given for the possible attacks. After reporting the information on KOLD news channel last week, some viewers got their hackles up thinking the report was a bit sensationalistic. I suppose some would have thought a similar report about an attack on the Twin Towers to be, likewise, sensationalistic. After something like that happens, it's much more difficult to NOT feel a need to know and inform. In any case, here's  the KOLD News response to viewers.

WHAT'S HAPPENING

American Border Patrol has announced it will be featuring live cameras along the border at their ranch on the border south of Palominas. People will be able to view live action of illegal aliens crossing into the U.S. At the same time, Gov. Rick Perry of Texas announced they have the money (3 Million) to provide the same 'service' in the state of Texas. They had tried this before for a month and had over 225,000 'lookers'. Not to be outdone, here in Cochise County a new organization, http://www.technopatriots.com/ , will eventually be covering 1600 square miles of the area, giving members the opportunity to be armchair patriots anywhere in the U.S. Makes you wonder how these private patriots garnered the 'millions' for such projects? As any entrepreneur knows, only government needs 3000% more funds than any private-for-profit enterprise.



The American people: still creative, still stubborn and still determined to keep the homeland free from invasion, with or without the help of the Federal government.

U.S. Attorney Sutton Has a Change of Heart?

What a surprise! According to The Washington Times, Aldrete Davila, the drug smuggler who was caught with 800 pounds of marijuana and shot by Border Patrol agents Compean and Ramos while trying to escape, has waltzed into the U.S. allegedly with a Department of Homeland Security-issued VISA. No, that's not the surprise since it has been going on for a couple of years. What IS surprising is that after having for years bebopped into the country at will under a federal escort, he found himself under arrest for... (drum role, please) known drug smuggling that occurred over two years ago.

In 2005, the DEA tried to convict Davila, but U.S. Attorney Johnny Sutton's office refused to allow it. So, why the sudden interest in prosecuting the criminal long pampered by Sutton? Surprise, surprise, it just so happens that agents Compean and Ramos will have their appeal cases heard December 3rd, just a couple of weeks away. Is Sutton trying to gain favor with the judge who will likely come down hard on him for unscrupulous practices? Or is Sutton hoping for leniency when Attorney General Mukasey and the Senate Judiciary Committee go after him as requested by Congressman Dana Rohrabacher? It should prove interesting as Sutton scrambles to salvage something of his crumbling image.

Of interest in the Times article is that presidential candidate (and congressman) Duncan Hunter today hand delivered a letter to President Bush requesting a pardon for Compean and Ramos before Thanksgiving.

Pelosi's Silly Games

Last night, Pelosi managed to push through a troop withdrawal bill in the House that is simply one more off-task attempt to shoot another spitwad at President Bush.

The bill requires combat troops to be withdrawn by the middle of December 2008. According to Voice of America, the bill which passed by a vote of 218 to 203 has no real chance in the Senate. Obviously, even if it did, it would be sunk by a Bush veto with no hope of an override.

What's also silly about this is that troops are already scheduled to begin scaling back within a month or so. One soldier I know is spending his time in Iraq dismantling equipment and turning over security duties to the local police in an area that not too long ago was one of the most dangerous cities in the world. Now, it's fairly peaceful and troops can spend their time preparing to leave.

So, what is it about "progress" that Pelosi doesn't understand? Personally, I don't think the action has anything to do with the war in Iraq. Pelosi can frustrate us with her agenda, but she doesn't do things without a reason. Knowing the bill was a waste of effort since it had no chance of becoming law begs the question regarding an ulterior motive. One simple explanation is that it's part of the Democrat party leadership plan to keep hammering the president and smearing the war in the faces of voters so they won't forget come election day. It's not about the business of the country. It's about the business of politics.

Of course, Pelosi isn't the only politician playing this game, but that doesn't change the fact that it is what it is.

The good and the bad

First, the bad

Representative Lena Saradnik recently suffered a stroke while traveling in Massachusetts. Apparently, it was a light stroke and she should be home by Thanksgiving. By all account given in the article, she appears to be recovering nicely, and should be back to work in January. Our thoughts and prayers go out to her and her family and we hope she makes a full recovery.

Then the good,

Today at 3:30 pm, little Rebekah Humphries was born. Her mother is recovering nicely, and the baby is beautiful. Blogging and Campaigning will be light for the next few days, but hopefully we will see if we can get some pictures up for those interested.

Government Economic Data Doesn't Add Up

If you ever wonder why your experience doesn't seem to match what is reported by the federal government, you're not alone. It probably has to do with the fact that since the late '80s, reporting methods have kept changing to make the sitting president look better. So when people start throwing around numbers relating to past CPI, unemployment, inflation, etc., it gets frustrating very quickly as everyone seems to have different numbers for the same reporting periods.

As a NEWS YOU CAN USE tip, check out John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics site. Although it's set up as a paid subscription service, he provides quite a bit of education free to visitors. It's enlightening as well as frightening.

During the Clinton years, for example, unemployment rates were played with several times so that today's unemployment is grossly underreported. Likewise, inflation reads artificially low under our current reporting methods. Add to this comparisons with other countries who have their own reporting methods and self-serving biases and it's easy to become somewhat cynical with it all.

Preferring to live in a slightly rosy world, however, rather than think of it as deceitful, I choose to consider it all as creative. And knowing how the system works, I can simply take this creativity into consideration when looking at the numbers.

More Forethought, Please

Sometimes, it's important to realize that a decision to help someone in need may have results that far outweigh the benefit to a single person. For example, I learned that in a country I recently visited—one that takes the benevolent position of accepting anyone and everyone into the country no questions asked—a person from a third country brought TB in with them. Now, everyone who was in the office I visited has to undergo testing to see if the disease overtook others.

Considering the economic plight of so many of our neighbors to the south of us, it's easy to simply throw out thoughtless statements about how we should let them all in and give them a chance to better their conditions. But the reality is, every person who comes into the country outside of proper channels presents a threat to the health of millions of others. TB, for example, continues to be a disproportionate problem in border states and counties brought on by the large numbers of people coming into the country without proper screening. And TB is not the worst problem.

When people casually toss around the notion that we should help everyone, they should consider how many may be hurt by a careless attitude about how to do it.

A Veteran's Day Message from Bruce Ash

Listen to Bruce Ash's Veteran's Day Message

The Tidball factor

In early November Sonoran Alliance broke the news that a credible independent candidate is running in the eighth congressional district. They did not seem too worried about his campaign and even wondered if Tidball took votes away from Gabby more than Bee.

SED then contacted Tidball and did a good follow-up story. Matt did not specifically address the issue of whom Tidball helped or hurt by being in the race.

I have learned through sources that Tidball has the higher-ups in the Republican establishment all worked up. Despite the fact that Tidball is registered and running as an independent there is talk within Republican circles of getting him out of the race. How does that work exactly, telling someone outside your party whether to run or not? There is more to come on this story and we will be very interested to see if Tidball is still in the race come 2008.

A Double-edged Sword

What does it mean when conservative Pat Robertson joins forces with Rudy Giuliani? Does it mean pro-life conservatives will suddenly rally to Rudy? Not likely. More than social conservatives, the move gives Rudy access to Jews like never before. Even Jewish Democrats responding to Pat's fiery rhetoric against Muslims are lining up in Rudy's camp.

Of course, such a move isn't without a price, albeit a small one. CAIR, a U.S. Muslim civil rights group, is less than thrilled.

It seems a smart move for Rudy. He softens his image with conservatives, attracts Jews, and only manages to upset a very small segment of voters. As for Pat Robertson, it's a bit more difficult to rationalize his decision.

If nothing else, the move serves to dampen the belief that social conservatives are united in their support for a particular candidate. And the reasons for their support seem to be as varied as the number of candidates.

Bi-partisanship No Longer Just a Buzzword

What bill in Congress could possibly have 44 Democrat and 46 Republican signers before being introduced? What issue could unite representatives from the Congressional Black Caucus, Hispanic Caucus, Immigration Caucus, Republican Study Committee and Blue Dog Coalition?

Strange as it may sound, we're talking about illegal immigration and a bill designed to address it...at least in part.

Unlike prior bills that contained some sort of amnesty provision, this one is centered solely on border security and enforcement. Representative Heath Shuler (D-N.C.) wrote the bill known as the Secure America through Verification and Enforcement (SAVE) Act or H.R. 4088. The focus of the bill is two-fold: It provides funding, bodies, and equipment for securing the border including more fence, and it requires employers to make sure all current and prospective employees are legal. For this last requirement, all employers must comply within 4 years—large employers (over 250 employees) get 1 year, and progressively smaller companies get more time. All will be required to use the eVerify program and respond to mismatch letters from the Social Security Administration.

This one is worth watching!

Dianne Feinstein Is Clearly NOT a Liberal

Despite help from Mel Martinez and Larry Craig on the GOP side, Dianne Feinstein dropped her plans to ressurrect the AgJobs bill—at least for now—that would have granted amnesty for an estimated million or so illegal farm workers. The argument for farm worker amnesty goes "if we paid a legal wage, produce would be too expensive" and "nobody wants to do these jobs, anyway."

Does that mean that food has, until the past decade, sat rotting in the fields because we didn't have enough illegals to do the work? Let's look at what history tells us. I'm old enough to remember how under Pres. Bush Sr., Secretary of Labor, Elizabeth Dole worked with the INS and with a vengeance went after employers that were hiring illegals rounding up thousands of illegals and fining employers. She struck fear in the hearts of non-complying businesses. Going back a few years was Pres. Eisenhower's non-PC parlanced initiative Operation Wetback which is said to have cleared out nearly a million illegals in a year through forced and voluntary deportation. In a third example, Cesar Chavez led the United Farm Workers in a huge strike that was constantly sabotaged by illegal immigrant scabs who crossed the picket line. In response, Chavez led a march to the border with Walter Mondale and Ralph Abernathy (remember them?) demanding a stop to the illegals' crossings. It got so bad that Chavez' brother led strikers in patrolling the border beating up illegals they caught crossing into the U.S. In none of these cases is there any evidence that produce prices shot up significantly as a result of fewer illegal immigrant laborers.

Nine years ago, Senator Edward Kennedy, openly argued against illegal and temporary legal workers because of the high rate of unemployed U.S. agricultural workers. If you look at farming counties across the country this hasn't changed with unemployment rates in some California agricultural counties reaching over 16%. In other words, their aren't even enough picking jobs for U.S. citizen pickers to fill. With pickers in California averaging over $10 per hour, the 24% of farm laborers who are illegal must be saving some farmers at least a buck or two. Based on the number of workers and the labor cost per apple at 7 cents, however, we would be lucky to add a penny to the price of an apple if we sent illegals home and gave the jobs to U.S. citizens.

According to University of California professors in agricultural economics, it's silly to use higher prices as an argument to support an alleged "need" for illegal labor. The profs also make a strong case for not incenting farmers to grow labor-intensive crops and avoid investing in machinery by making it artificially easy to access cheap labor (as in the days of slavery in the South). Doing so, they argue, keeps the industry supporting low wages and harms the economy.

So on whose side is Feinstein? Consumers? Nope. Laborers? Not hardly. The union? Forget it. It looks like Dianne is only concerned about a handful of farm businesses that exploit labor for a little extra profit. And all this time I thought she was a liberal.

GOP Primary analysis

So, where do I think things with the Republican nomination stand at this point? Well, I am going to give my analysis in terms of percentages, and they are bound to be a little non-conventional. Keep in ming that I am not necessarily expressing my preference, just the way I see things as of now. Here goes:

Mitt Romney- 50% chance to win the nomination. There are plenty of people that think this is insane, but I would argue that they are not paying close attention. Currently, Romney holds a very solid lead in Iowa (+13.5% RCP poll average), and a healthy lead in New Hampshire(+8% RCP average.) On top of that, he is running neck-and neck in Nevada, Michigan, and, surprisingly, South Carolina. That is the clincher that convinces me.

It just like in a close basketball game, you want the ball in your hands for the final play, and right now the ball is in Mitt’s hands. If he pulls his plan off, he has no need for luck, or for anybody else to slip up. He just needs to execute. Although this is by no means a guarantee for victory, it is the best position to be in.

It runs down like this:

On January 3rd it is almost a done deal that Iowa goes to Romney. A good showing, like is expected, will tip New Hampshire, where he already holds a lead, into his column (New Hampshire does not currently have a date set, but it must be the first primary in the nation by state law.) This likely provides a week of wall-to-wall Mittmania, especially if Hillary wins Iowa and New Hampshire, as Mitt will likely be viewed as an upset by those who haven’t been paying attention (which is most of America.) Most everybody paying casual attention would think that Rudy has this thing wrapped up, and two big Romney wins will be a surprise to them. I wouldn’t really expect the news media to try to tone things down with a “this was an expected outcome” storyline either. Surprise and upsets sell.

Fast forward to the 15th in Michigan. If Romney had to handpick a midwestern state, this would be it, as it is probably the only place outside of Utah where his family name holds any weight. Although, admittedly, most will be too young to remember his father, George, some still do, and it is an excellent starting point, along with the fact that he spent time growing up in Michigan. I find it hard to believe that a Mitt Romney, fresh off two important victories does not extend his current 5.2% RCP average poll lead over Rudy Giuliani to a victory.

At this point, there will only be three credible candidates, as all of the Tier two candidates will have been neutralized, and either McCain or Thompson will have been beaten bad enough to be marginalized (I think it will be Fred.) Next up is Nevada and South Carolina. Polls have been all over the place in Nevada, but I have to believe that a surging Romney takes Nevada as well.

South Carolina, however, is the linchpin. Should Romney take South Carolina, the nomination is his. I would argue this is true even should he win South Carolina, but drop any one of the previous states. The build up of momentum is designed for this outcome. Even as far as recently as last week, I thought South Carolina an impossibility. According the the RCP average, South Caorlina is a dead heat between Mitt, Rudy, and Fred with McCain not far behind. I would suspect that much of Fred’s support would melt to McCain, but there will be a chunk that would Move to Mitt, and due to Romney’s momentum he would pick up the plurality of undecideds.

Meanwhile, Giuliani will have been on a month long losing streak, often placing third or worse before Florida finally appears on the schedule. I don’t believe he survives this.

Keep in mind, however, that any state Mitt loses prior to Florida drops him 20% in his chances to receive the nomination. The effect is cumulative


John McCain- 10% chance to win the nomination. This will likely cause anger in some quarters, but it is actually a significant improvement over a couple of months ago, where I would have given him no chance at all. Quite frankly the Surge in Iraq strategy could not have realistically went better, and he rightfully has reaped much of the credit, giving him a second life. He should continue to reclaim much of the support that bled to Fred Thompson as McCain’s campaign floundered.

However, unless McCain ties his newfound energy into some very specific results, it will be for naught. It all comes down to New Hampshire. McCain must win here or he is done. Currently he is 12 to 13 percentage points behind Romney, but is within the margin of error with Rudy for second. Unfortunately, there is not a lot of Thompson support in New Hampshire to grab, so it will be an uphill climb. McCain does have considerable infrastructure in New Hampshire, moreso than Giuliani but less than Romney.

What McCain needs is for Huckabee to overperform in Iowa, either giving Romney a close race, or beating him outright. A weakened Romney would be ripe for a McCain upset in New Hampshire. McCain supporters should be hoping for a good couple months from Huckabee, especially as they would be prime candidates for defection to McCain in later rounds as Huckabee’s campaign begins to fizzle.

Should McCain win New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina become possibilities. If McCain can take these states, he is likely to unite those opposed to Giuliani which puts him in a very good position.


Rudy Giuliani- 40% chance to win the nomination. His pathway is quite simple. All he needs to have happen is for McCain and Romney’s plans to fail and he is the nominee. I would have rated his chances of success higher but for the notion that he has no way to proactively stop either candidate. His campaign infrastructure in the early states is rather weak and he seems to have placed all of his marbles in to Florida, which was a decent strategy assuming a split field with Romney, McCain, and Thompson offsetting each other in previous state wins. Should Romney or McCain dominate leading up to Florida, Rudy is likely to find himself in a spot of trouble, as his 10 percent lead in Florida would be susceptible to a surge, especially as other candidates fall away. He will have taken quite a beating from the media as well if he has not won any states prior to Florida as he is the presumed national front runner. Howard Dean was done with or without the scream, and Rudy would find himself in much the same position.

Any state that Rudy wins before Florida increases his odds of the nomination by 20% except Nevada which increases him 10%.

Fred Thompson- No chance for the nomination. This may seem harsh, but Fred is already losing ground to a much stronger McCain and holds no advantage in any early state. To top it off, his trend line is diving, and I can envision no scenario outside of another candidate withdrawing for health reasons or severe scandal that revives his campaign.

He peaked too early, and wasted too much time while other candidates built early state infrastructure. He has been outworked by every other candidate, up to and including Ron Paul.

Mike Huckabee- No chance for the nomination. Should he close Romney’s lead in Iowa in any poll to less than 5%, I may revisit his chances. I’m still not sure that a even a win in Iowa catapults him enough down the road, although it could certainly doom Romney.


Ron Paul- No chance for the nomination. I think that he started from too far back to be in the running this time. He may be a serious player in 2012, especially if Hillary wins, and more especially if Iraq is neutralized as an issue by that time. Anybody who does not take the Paul phenomenon seriously is not paying attention, however. Today alone he has raised more than one million dollars. I suspect that Ron Paul will be a factor even after this election cycle is over.

Politicians Infiltrating Wikipedia?

Here's a gem I stumbled across in Wikipedia:

In March 2006 the Pew Hispanic Center estimated the undocumented population ranged from 11.5 to 12 million individuals[1], a number supported by the US Government Accountability Office (GAO)[2]. Pew estimated that 57% of this population comes from Mexico and about half of them are illegal;

So, if ALL are "undocumented," how is it that only "half of them are illegal?" Okay, I may be naive, but I actually believe I know who is buried in Grant's tomb. Maybe I should rethink that.

...This had to come from a politician. :)

See, this is why I link him

I take a lot of grief for my link to Michael Bryan's "Blog for Arizona." Although he may flirt with loony extremism from time to time (he did back away from the "Loose Change" 9-11 Truther videos when presented with Popular Mechanics' rebuttal) and his language gets a little rough, he does have these shining moments of brilliance.

Here is his latest gem:

Even though there is probably half a napkin's worth of issues that we may agree on, this is quite simply the best take down of the "temporary checkpoints are more effective" myth that has been done in the local blogosphere (although I am not sure that this was the reason he authored the post).

I'll repeat what I have always said. There are many reasons to prefer temporary checkpoints to permanent checkpoints, and some of them may be good reasons, especially for the communities where they are erected. However, NONE of those reasons have anything to do with more effectively enforcing or patrolling traffic coming across the border either as contraband or illegal immigration. If this is your main concern, permanent checkpoints are always the better way to go.

Heh.

If I go to www.lenasaradnik.com I see something very interesting. Either:

A) Lena has started a whole new series of business ventures to supplement her meager state legislative representative's income, including Payday loans, online poker, and love spells.

B) She forgot to reregister her domain name and someone "hijacked" it. Or. .

C) She came to the realization the "Saradnik" is misspelled as often as "Humphries" and is going to drop her last name on her new website and go by "Lena" (Kind of like Cher and Madonna)

Obviously I think "C" to be the correct answer, but I am really pulling for "A."