Thursday, June 28, 2007

53-46

Stunning defeat. I'm pretty much speechless at that result.

That is an eighteen vote turnaround from the last vote.

I don't expect Jon Kyl to marching in any parades next week. I honestly don't know what his next step is. He miscalculated badly on this.

The last week of parliamentary tricks and suppression has been an embarrassment no matter which side of the issue you come down on. Good to see that kind of behavior rewarded in kind.

Maybe we can get back to the introduction of bills in committee, actually writing the bills before you bring them to the floor, and allowing the other side equal opportunity to debate.

That's just me though.

12 comments:

GOP Boomer Gal said...

Framer, you are a Nativist and you are causing the destruction of our party. ;)

Anonymous said...

Not just NO, but HECK NO!!!

roger said...

I think this vote will be potentially the final death knell of the Republican Party in the long run. For real. This vote will make your party a minority party for time to come.

First, that you all could attack Kyl and even go as far to question his loyalty is stunning and telling. Kyl is the last true great and loyal conservative and his votes to push this is evidence of how smart he is. This vote will lose the growing Hispanic vote forever. They will remember, as in California, who submarined this vote and who rallied the "xenophobes" to their cause. Any shot at the Hispanic/Latin vote is long dead.

Also, this vote splits your party further. This is a fantastic time for Democrats to recruit business support here in Arizona and around the country.

Honestly...I am smiling...except for the fact that there are 12 million hardworking undocumented workers...and their children...who will continue to be demonized.

ovd said...

Roger,

If Kyl is so smart then why did he split the party by trying to shove this bill down our throats?

I do agree with you that it does hurt the Republicans. My estimate is 10 years though, not forever. Good luck to Tim Bee.

Anonymous said...

Roger,
I don't see the Hispanic backlash as you predict. If you don't grant amnesty and a path to citizenship to illegals, they can be pissed all the want, they still can't vote.

A large majority of Hispanics that are legally here are not very fond of the amnesty provision and are particularly not very fond of the image of replacing blacks as the new victim class of the Democrats.

I also think many blacks, particularly poorer blacks, saw amnesty as a death blow to any kind of standard of living increases because it would essentially keep wages low for decades, erode their clout in the Democrat party by making Hispanics (of formally illegal status) the largest voting block on the left. I see more blacks leaving the Democrat party in the coming years.

Many people know that 42% of Hispanics vote Republican because of the religious (Most are Catholics) and social aspects. Many blacks have now begun to migrate to the GOP for similar reasons as well and because of their desire to shake the chains of dependency offered by the left.

I think torpedoing this bill did more to save the GOP than people like you would like to believe. It will surely energize the GOP base, showing them they can be heard; it changed the national debate from Iraq (which as we know the Dems love) to the ILLEGAL immigration issue (which the Dems hate), and it had made it one of the central issues of the 2008 presidential race.

It will be interesting to see the 2008 Presidential candidate’s responses to the vote and the subsequent polling numbers. This is not solely a Republican issue, of the 53 Nays were 15 Democrats, 28% of the vote.

It seems that of the 15 Democrat Senators that voted against cloture, 5 are up for election in 2008 in states where polling shows huge opposition to amnesty (MT, IA, LA, AR, and WV). The other 10 ran as moderates and are in swing states that they have to deliver to Hillary in 2008 (VA, OH, NM, NE, IA, IN, and MO).

Lindsey Graham is also up for re-election in 2008, and since his Vice Presidential hopes are on the sinking fast USS McCain, he'll probably have to run for the Senate again.

Expect a strong Republican primary challenge and the eventual defeat of Graham.

All in all, this is going to get the GOP base fired up.

x4mr said...

Anon,

You might be right about certain folks getting fired up.

The GOP is starting to really bifurcate, and the fish rots from the head. Iraq is burning and immigration is just gas on the fire. Toss in Cheney-gate (how can ANYONE not think this guy is a jerk?) and you have a real mess.

Framer said...

Roger,

If "business interests" is composed entirely of companies who hire illegal aliens, I suppose it could be trouble. Fortunately, this does not make for a majority of business.

For the remainder, I suppose card check, arbitrary raising of the minimum wage, higher taxes, tighter regulation, along with constant demonization of "big business" is possibly the best strategy to reach out with.

And remember, if you want to allow more influence to the illegal work force, there are bound to be repercussions to the black minority base and union vote.

I would argue that the Union vote was a large reason the bill was defeated.

Meanwhile, I am looking over Democratic accomplishments this year, and I am registering a big fat goose egg. But, maybe if you invest another couple of months you can get Bush's rating down another couple of points. That will show everybody.

What was just accomplished was the republican base breaking against Bush. That will make it very difficult for Democrats to run against him next year. Its sad, but it was bound to happen at some point. Better sooner than later, and better this issue than many others.

You will need to fall back on that record of Democratic accomplishment for the elections next year. At least it won't cost a lot to cover them in the commercials.

The difference is that Republicans are sorting out their internal issues now. Democrats have yet to notice their own, which aren't inconsiderable.

roger said...

Responding to a few comments quickly here or I would address you by name (or anon).

1. This will hurt the Republican party with Hispanics. It already did in the last election. Most polls I am seeing and efforts to recruit new Latino Voters have them voting overwhelmingly Democrat...again...unlike when Bush was able to bring them into the Republican party. Check your party operatives on this one...this will REALLY hurt.

2. People are blaming Kyl for splitting the party, but we could equally blame the vigilant far right on this issue more than Jon Kyl. He sees the future, knows something has to be done, and knows that this defeat and the past status quo that the Republicans NEVER changes when they were in power, will come to haunt them. He was being reasonable, the vocal minority of far right (and some who are clearly race baiting) Republicans will suffer greatly...and I mean with citizens who can vote and the young generation of citizen children of illegals that you all so often decry. Most identify themselves with the Democratic party...each graduating class means more and more voting democrats.

3. Yes Unions are concerned, but they know also that they are more likely to continue to bust on management then workers...and in this case...potential union members. I know one union organizer at least in Seattle that says the same.

4. Finally, Framer, on business. I have read article after article in the Wall Street Journal quoting studies that demonstrate that undocumented labor benefits our economy. I have heard postcast after podcast of interviews with Chamber of Commerce directors in places like Indiana (no friend of illegals) talking about how bad this backlash is for business...and then...there is the much much more significant issue of the employers who directly/indirectly hire them. Big builders of homes in S. Arizona dont hire directly, they subcontract the labor they cannot find here. I would bet that you can name any major homebuilder in this state (the biggest industry we have in S. Arizona) and they benefit from the labor and don't want the doors completely shut without a path to citizenship or a guest labor program.

GOP Boomer Gal said...

Roger,
My grandparents were Italian immigrants; my parents were Democrats. My sister and I, as well as our children, are Republicans.

When the children of the Hispanics are educated and have good jobs, they won't want the government stealing their money to pay for more bureaucratic waste any more than my sister or I. They will be Republicans

Anonymous said...

I disagree, Roger...
1) No effect on Hispanics and the GOP
2)Kyl unknowingly united the party.
3)The AFL-CIO is the largest union organization representing all but one of the largest unions. They were opposed because the bill would drive down wages for union workers which top economists (i.e. Wharton school;s Peter Cappelli for one) have stated. My union leader friends almost without exception, concur.
4)The IBD, a business/investment publication has constantly blasted the senate immigration bill as did BW and other business publications. The WSJ is the ONLY business pub that supported the bill. The Chamber was very critical, but pretended to be neutral. SHRM and HR Magazine were openly criitical of the bill. Friends of mine who own the largest commercial and residential construction firms in the area are adamant they do not hire illegals and are against it. The only problem they had was with getting subs when the building boom was on and they complained that it drove workers wages up very high (imagine that, better pay to attract workers). Is that a bad thing?

roger said...

No effect on Hispanics and the GOP? Are you kidding me? I have been paying a lot of attention to this via new sources, polling, and the like. In the past election, Hispanics left the Republican party in droves. In addition, there has been poll after poll documenting that Hispanic voters are identifying themselves with Democrats...as are especially newly registered voters.

This is no difference than the Pete Wilson failure for the Republican party except in one major way...there are more and more Hispanic voters then ever before and they all over America.

As to the points about The Chamber. It is important to note just why they were critical. This bill did not attract a lot of support from business in a lot of ways because of the crackdowns and the portions of the bill that were chiefly anti-Hispanic and anti-business.

Unlike the anti-immigration forces in your party, the business forces are just not that excited about border security and deporting 12 million undocumented immigrants. If this tough talk and tough approach continues, you will lose both business...and Hispanics...for a good long time.

The RNC knows this...fears it...and is just going to get planked for the short-term thinking that will doom this party.

AZAce said...

The National Journal's insiders poll shows 56% of Democrat insiders said last week that the Democrat Party would be helped if immigration reform died this year. 61% of Republican insiders said the Republican Party would be helped if immigration reform died this year.

It doesn't sound like there's much grieving going on.