Thursday, June 07, 2007

Prediction still in play

My prediction from May 18th:

Things could, however, get much worse. It is very possible that the compromise could crumble. Should that happen, McCain would reap all of the blame and get no benefit for the bill passing. That would be disastrous and could possibly end his campaign. The last person you want in your corner when a "bipartisan compromise" goes bad in the arena of public opinion is Teddy Kennedy. Ask President Bush how long it took to remove the "No Child Left Behind" dagger from between his shoulder blades. Hint, it's still there.

Look at Harry Reid try to run away:

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said that he wanted to revive what he repeatedly called "the president's bill," but the Senate sat as if gathered at a funeral.

Also, look at the media typecasting that is starting, and who's name is left off in the list:

It was a defeat for the bipartisan group that had been working on the compromise for three months; the presidential campaign of one from their ranks, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.; Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and the unpopular President George W. Bush, not necessarily in that order.

I don't suspect it will take long for Reid's name to drop off that list as well.

I'm not saying that you shouldn't work with Democrats, it is usually necessary and right. Sometimes however, you need to be aware of who you are trusting your political future to when things get tough.


Sirocco said...

The bill is dead! I think you should take credit for killing it. :)

Good prognostication, actually. A couple weeks ago I thought it had a pretty good chance of passing.

Framer said...

Oh, it will be back in some form or another. The closer it gets to November 2008, however, the more enforcement oriented it will be.

Keep in mind that both Hillary and Obama voted for the fence last year.

My ace in the hole, however, was Democratic opposition, which was obvious but not really brought up much in media analysis. For some reason the media thought that the Democrats were lockstep in support of the Bill. Supporting the bill would have been suicide for someone like Dorgan who depends upon Union support so heavily.

For those happy about the bill going away, there is your real hero.

Sirocco said...

Yes, Democratic opposition wasn't talked about that much. I know I was never strongly behind the bill, and no one I know was either. It seemed like any support it had was (by-and-large) lukewarm, while those opposed to it were strongly opposed.

Sirocco said...

I see President Bush is still vowing to get an immigration bill passed ... any thoughts on the matter?

If I were the snarky type, I might say something like "Good thing he blew all his credibility, political capital and popularity on the Iraq war so he doesn't have much leverage on other matters, huh?".

Fortunately, I am not the snarky type.