Monday, June 18, 2007

New Poll; Presidential Race Musings

In a new USAToday/Gallup poll of 909 Democrats, Republicans and independents conducted last week Clinton shows up at 39% with Obama at 26%.

In the GOP race, Giuliani leads at 28% to McCain's 18%.

The poll has a couple of glaring weakness: It doesn't appear that the poll includes most likely voters. It also includes non-candidates which makes the results less reliable still. For example, when Gore is thrown into the mix, Clinton's lead drops significantly. Thompson, still undeclared, was included in the GOP results coming in second place and likely tainted the numbers for the big GOP 3 since he mostly takes votes from Giuliani and to a lesser degree, Romney.

On the Dem side: Obama has peaked and will begin to struggle as the end of summer approaches. I wouldn't even be surprised if Edwards passes him by the end of the year. Obama may end up a VP running mate with Hillary or ...

Hillary is as strong as ever and continues to build her machine complete with regional and ethnic accents.

Bill Clinton suggests Al Gore may enter the race if Obama slips far enough. He certainly has the money and the contacts, but wouldn't he be a bit too late to the party? Al would certainly take votes away from Hillary, but would mostly destroy what's left of Obama. Al says "no," but seems to be behaving "yes."

As for Republicans considered as candidates... Unfortunately for Fred, as popular as he is on conservative talk radio, he will struggle to get the necessary funding at this stage, won't be an aggressive campaigner, and is too late to the race. His popularity in the polls shows more of a lack of voter's full commitment to current candidates than support for Thompson as evidenced by a CBS poll that showed 57% of Republicans want better candidates. The fact that he gets most votes from Giuliani's supporters indicates he is less conservative on social issues than some have suggested which hurts Giuliani and helps Romney a bit. Does that mean he's out? No, he will stay connected, play in the debates, and may end up as a VP running mate.

Newt Gingrich is waiting until November 6 to make his announcement. Don't look for him to become a serious contender even if he takes the plunge. Newt carries too much baggage among the very conservatives who support him, not to mention everyone else. He may be interested in a VP opportunity, however.

Jeb Bush? Naaah... wrong time.

McCain's campaign is in trouble and McCain will be struggling to maintain parity in the polls by September. I would expect Guiiani to benefit by McCain's loss in popularity as well as Romney to some degree.

4 comments:

Sirocco said...

Thanks for mentioning the poll results - I hadn't seen them. Good thoughts too.

I think you underestimate Obama a bit, but I agree he could very well begin losing some traction at the end of the summer. I don't see Gore running this year, and Jeb's brother of course has ruined any thoughts Jeb might have had about making a run. He'll see if a Dem wins this year, and if so run in four years.

Where are you getting the info Newt will declare on Nov. 6? I've seen speculation he will declare sometime this fall, but that's a pretty specific date, so I assume it comes from somewhere. Is it just the one-year point before next year's elections?

AZAce said...

You're right, it is somewhat based on the one-year point prior to the election. He announced this late last month. Here's the link.

roger said...

Great post, Azace.

The national polls, as you mention, have serious flaws, but there is a LOT there for Clinton and Guiliani to love for sure. Plus, state polls show her doing pretty well in NH, but not as well in Iowa.

Clinton is likely to be very very strong as long as Obama and Edwards are both in the race. There can't be more than one alternative candidate to the estabilishment Clinton. They spit votes and so far the vote splitting favors Clinton.

What scrares the begesus out of Clinton is Edwards or Obama doing better than expected in Iowa...or one of them winning (Edwards???). A loss in that state is a serious achilles heel for the jaugernaut that is the Clinton campaign. People aren't sure she can win in the fall...so "someone to believe in" that swats her in Iowa...is one to watch. It is the only scenario I can see that can get someone like an Edwards iin the winner's circle. It has worked so many times...

On the Republican side...look at the polls in Iowa for Romney. Isn't he winning? If so...look out.

Framer said...

Roger,

A little later, I am going to follow up AZAce with a state by state chronological primer of where we are at. I was waiting on an announcement from Michigan to see if they were going to move into January, but I may just move on without them.